Wang Wei: Stimulating the Potential for Continuous Consumption Growth

2024-01-10

Article | Wang Wei, former director and second level researcher of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, 2023 is the first year to comprehensively implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the year of economic recovery and development after three years of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control. China's economy has rebounded and improved, and high-quality development has been solidly promoted. A series of achievements have been made in expanding domestic demand, optimizing structure, boosting confidence, and preventing and resolving risks. At the same time, it should also be noted that China's development still faces some unfavorable factors. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that "further promoting economic recovery requires overcoming some difficulties and challenges, mainly insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many risks and hidden dangers. There are bottlenecks in the domestic circulation, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment are increasing." It also made important arrangements to "focus on expanding domestic demand.". In this regard, it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand effective investment, and promote consumption from post pandemic recovery to sustained expansion. Since 2023, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has attached great importance to expanding domestic demand while maintaining stable growth from a strategic perspective, prioritizing the recovery and expansion of consumption. A series of policies have been launched to promote consumption, increasing household income through multiple channels, improving the consumer environment, boosting consumer confidence, and effectively promoting the sustained recovery and improvement of consumption. According to the relevant data from 2023, China's consumption presents multiple characteristics. One is that consumption continues to recover and steadily improves, becoming the main driving force for stable growth. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in the first three quarters was 83.2%, and consumption played an important supporting role in stabilizing growth and high-quality economic development. The second is the rapid release of demand for service consumption, leading the consumer market to accelerate recovery. The consumer market for catering, accommodation, culture, sports, and tourism services is showing a rapid recovery trend. From January to November, the retail sales of services increased by 19.5% year-on-year. The third is the strong vitality of innovative consumption, which has a more obvious driving effect. From January to November, the national online retail sales reached 13957.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 11770.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3%, accounting for 27.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in society. New consumption models such as live streaming e-commerce and instant retail are accelerating innovation. Fourthly, the income level has steadily increased. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents increased by 5.9% in real terms, and the consumption capacity of residents continued to strengthen. The fifth is to accelerate the recovery of the international tourism market, driving the recovery of China's market. In the third quarter, the national immigration management agency inspected 123 million inbound and outbound personnel, a year-on-year increase of 454.4%, reaching 73% of the same period in 2019; A total of 6.431 million vehicles (ships, trains, vehicles) were inspected, an increase of 182.4% year-on-year, reaching 73% of the same period in 2019. The existing foundation is not yet solid. Currently, the foundation for the continuous expansion of consumption in China is still not solid, and there is a structural contradiction between overcapacity in some industries and insufficient supply of high-quality products and services. On the one hand, some traditional and export-oriented industries are facing pressure from declining international market demand and upgrading domestic consumer demand

Edit:Luo yu    Responsible editor:Wang xiao jing

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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