Accelerating the Recovery of Electricity Consumption and Optimizing the Industry: An Analysis of Economic Operation Trends from the Changes in Electricity Data

2023-07-26

The electricity consumption of the whole society in China increased by 5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The electricity consumption of high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the overall growth level of the manufacturing industry by 3.8 percentage points; The year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the four major contact aggregation service industries in the second quarter exceeded 20%... The changes in a series of electricity consumption data in the first half of the year reflect a positive economic recovery trend in China, a better industrial development structure, and a steady recovery of service consumption. Electric power data is a "barometer" and "Weather vane" reflecting economic operation. Industry insiders estimate that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the second half of the year will further rebound compared to the first half. The China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as "China Electricity Council") predicts that the total electricity consumption in the second half of this year will increase by 6% -7% year-on-year, and the regional peak electricity supply and demand situation will still be tight during the peak summer period. The rebound trend is obvious. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the second half of the year may exceed 6%. Since the beginning of this year, China's electricity consumption has shown an upward recovery curve. In the first half of the year, the country's total electricity consumption reached 4.31 trillion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the growth rate increased by 2.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year. From a quarterly perspective, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.6% and 6.4% year-on-year in the first and second quarters, respectively, with an average growth rate of 5.0% and 4.3% in the two years. The trend of electricity consumption growth rate is generally consistent with the trend of GDP growth rate, reflecting the overall recovery of the national economy in the first half of this year, "Wang Yixuan, director of the China Electricity Union Statistics and Data Center, introduced at a press conference on July 25th. Industry insiders unanimously judge that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the second half of the year will further rebound compared to the first half of the year, achieving medium to high-speed growth. The "Analysis and Prediction Report on the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2023" released on the same day showed that, taking into account factors such as macroeconomic factors, summer temperature, and the base of the previous year, based on different prediction methods for the total electricity consumption in society, and combined with the prediction of experts in the analysis and prediction of the electricity supply and demand situation, it is expected that the total electricity consumption in society in 2023 will reach 9.15 trillion kilowatt hours, an increase of about 6% year-on-year, In the second half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 6% to 7% year-on-year. At present, it is the critical period of peak summer, and the situation of electricity supply and demand has attracted much attention. It is reported that in recent years, the "winter and summer" double peak characteristics of China's power load have become increasingly apparent. More than 10 provincial-level power grids nationwide have summer cooling loads accounting for over 40% of the highest electricity consumption load, with a few provinces having cooling loads exceeding 50%. The impact of temperature on electricity consumption is becoming increasingly prominent. In the second half of the year, China's economy will continue to recover and improve. At the same time, according to the prediction of the national meteorological department, the temperature in most areas of the country this summer is close to the same period as usual and slightly higher. "Jiang Debin, Deputy Director of the Statistics and Data Center of China Electricity Union, said that it is expected that the highest electricity load in the country in the summer will increase by 80 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts compared to 2022. During the peak summer season, under the overall normal conditions of water supply, fuel supply, and unit operation, it is expected that the power supply and demand situation in the East, Central, and South regions during peak hours will still be tight after fully utilizing the advantages of the unified dispatch system of the power grid and fully utilizing the resource allocation capacity of the power grid; Basic balance of power supply and demand in Northeast, North China, and Northwest regions

Edit:Luo yu    Responsible editor:Wang er dong

Source:jjckb.cn

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