China's "Population Catastrophe Theory"? Wrong!

2023-07-05

On July 1, the website of the Hong Kong Asia Times published an article entitled "China's Population Catastrophists Quote Wrong Data" by David Goldman, an American economist. The full text is excerpted as follows: A popular statement among American experts claims that the Chinese economy will decline due to a slowly decreasing population. But more important than the total population of China is the skilled Chinese population. In the past 40 years, this population has increased by 20 times. Other Asian countries, especially South Korea, have previously achieved record productivity gains through similar skill enhancement. We have heard this saying before, that is, "Four Asian Tigers". Just before the economic growth in East Asia soared, such disaster predictions were widely spread. Perhaps the worst economic forecast on record is Paul Krugman's assertion in 1994 that the Economy of Asia miracle is a myth, and that the "Four Asian Tigers" will decline like the Soviet Union. Krugman is a scholar, a Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureate in economics and a commentator of the New York Times. He wrote an article in the famous Foreign Affairs magazine stating: "The Newly industrialized country in Asia, like the Soviet Union in the 1950s, have achieved rapid growth to a large extent through amazing resource allocation. Once the role played by rapidly increasing inputs in the economic growth of these countries and regions is put aside, there is no reason to explain their rapid growth. The growth of Asia - like the era of rapid growth in the Soviet Union - seems to be driven by labor and capital and other fields Investing in unconventional growth to drive, rather than improving efficiency Krugman asserts that the "Four Asian Tigers" are "experiencing a period of declining returns". However, South Korea's manufacturing productivity increased more than fivefold between 1994 and 2012, which is an astonishing achievement. South Korea's industrial labor force declined during its manufacturing boom, but it caught up with or even surpassed Japan in key industries including semiconductors, displays, and automobiles. Nowadays, no Japanese company can compete with Samsung in the field of computer chips. In 1990, only 35% of Korean high school graduates received some form of higher education; By 2010, this proportion had reached an astonishing 100%. Koreans invest heavily in factories, equipment, and infrastructure, and most importantly, they cultivate their own talents according to world standards. China is trying this approach on a large scale, just as South Korea did in the 1990s and early this century. Krugman's statement of declining returns in 1994 has now resurfaced when it comes to China. China has already shifted the majority of its rural population to cities, and can no longer expect a surge in labor supply to drive its growth at the beginning of this century. However, what Krugman and Chinese population disaster theorists did not see today is the leap in human capital and the emergence of new technologies. South Korea's new and educated workforce has mastered the technology of the Third Industrial Revolution and transformed one of the world's poorest countries into a high-tech powerhouse within a generation. When China began its economic reform in 1979, only 3% of high school graduates received higher education

Edit:XiaoWanNing    Responsible editor:YingLing

Source:Reference News

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