Prospects and opportunities of digital RMB under the new development pattern

2022-04-18

The people's Bank of China has taken a positive and prudent attitude towards the introduction of digital RMB. Since 2014, the people's Bank of China has set up a special team to conduct special research on digital currency. At the end of 2019, digital RMB has been piloted in several regions. At present, the pilot of digital RMB has been orderly expanded to "10 + 1", basically covering different regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, central, western, northeast and northwest, It covers many aspects of the payment field. The operation entities have expanded to 9 banks, including Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of communications, postal savings bank, China Merchants Bank, e-commerce bank and Weizhong bank. Other small and medium-sized banks will also provide digital RMB services. The positioning of digital RMB in China is different from that of other digital currencies. First, digital RMB is positioned as a legal tender in digital form, which is cash in circulation. According to statistics, it enters M0 (cash in circulation), which will coexist with paper money and coins for a long time in the future. Second, digital RMB is a new means of payment. The existing means of payment include UnionPay mode and third-party payment. Digital RMB is a new form of payment. Banks have changed from bookkeeping institutions to instruction transmission institutions. Third, digital RMB makes full use of the existing resources of commercial banks and adopts a two-tier operation system, that is, the upper layer is the central bank to commercial banks and the lower layer is the commercial banks to the public. The pilot since 2019 has effectively verified the technical design and system stability, product ease of use and scenario applicability of digital RMB business, which is mainly reflected in: first, the pilot has covered all fields of existing payment systems. In particular, the Beijing Winter Olympic Games provided a full scene pilot for digital RMB, covering the needs of seven key areas such as food, housing, transportation, tourism, shopping, entertainment and medicine. At the same time, it also successfully piloted cross-border payment in Hong Kong. Second, through the pilot, the public's understanding of digital RMB has been enhanced, and digital RMB has formed a certain scale. As of December 31, 2021, there have been more than 8.0851 million digital RMB pilot scenarios, 261 million personal wallets have been opened, and the transaction amount is 87.565 billion yuan. Third, the successful launch of digital RMB app has further accelerated the promotion of digital RMB. On January 4, 2022, the public launch of digital RMB (pilot version) app further accelerated the use of digital RMB, and a number of commercial banks are successively accessing it. The successful pilot of digital RMB is conducive to the internationalization of RMB In recent years, central banks around the world have actively carried out the research and development of central bank digital currency. According to the report of the bank for International Settlements (BIS), in July 2021, at least 56 central banks carried out relevant research, six central banks have issued digital currency, and three have explicitly opposed central bank digital currency. The US dollar has not reached a consensus. US Treasury Secretary Yellen pointed out that the advantages and disadvantages of the central bank's digital currency need to be further studied, but some Fed directors said they would urgently develop digital dollars, and US President Biden also said they would start the US central bank's research on digital currency. The introduction of digital RMB will have a great impact on the international community and the international monetary system, mainly because: China's economic strength has been further strengthened. On the one hand, in 2021, China's total economy will reach 114367 billion yuan, and the per capita GDP will reach 80976 yuan, which will reach US $12551 at the annual average exchange rate, which means that China has begun to enter the ranks of middle and high-income countries, with huge market demand in the future; On the other hand, since 2013, China has become the largest trading country in the world. Especially under the influence of the epidemic, China's foreign trade has increased rapidly. In 2021, China's annual import and export of goods reached 39.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.4%, which further enhanced the impact of digital RMB on international payments. The international status of RMB has been continuously improved. With the enhancement of China's economic strength, the status of RMB in the international payment system and reserve system continues to improve, which makes the introduction of digital RMB attract more and more attention. From the perspective of international payment, in the ranking of payment amount of major currencies in 2021, the share of international payment of RMB rose to 2.70%, replacing yen as the fourth currency; In terms of international reserves, the share of RMB has been growing steadily. In the third quarter of 2021, the share of RMB in global foreign exchange reserves rose to 2.66%, ranking fifth in the world. China has the largest application scenario in the world. China is the most populous country in the world. By the end of February 2022, the number of mobile phone users of the three basic telecom enterprises had reached 1.651 billion and the number of 5g mobile terminal connections had reached 520 million, which provided more test scenarios for digital currency. Digital RMB has obvious advantages over the existing third-party payment Digital RMB is an important supplement to the existing means of payment. Although the pilot digital RMB is only more than 87 billion yuan, which is a very small part of non cash payment business, digital RMB will promote the formation of a new payment pattern in China. First, digital RMB has more legal protection. Theoretically speaking, commercial banks may go bankrupt, and deposit insurance has a certain guarantee for users' property; Alipay and WeChat use commercial bank settlement, there is no deposit insurance. Therefore, once the risk arises, users will have huge property losses. Digital RMB is the legal currency of the country, which is guaranteed by the national credit and has more legal protection. Second, the payment of digital RMB is more convenient and cost-effective. First, the digital RMB can arrive in real time, which improves the use efficiency of funds and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. Second, digital RMB saves more costs. On the one hand, the issuing cost of digital RMB is much lower than that of current paper money and coins. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay 0.6% of the service charge with the UnionPay card. The two-dimensional code payment (WeChat, Alipay, etc.) needs to pay 0.38% of the service charge, while the digital renminbi is different from the UnionPay card and the third party payment. It is nonprofit. Third, the digital RMB is more secure and the protection of users is more perfect. On the one hand, the loss reporting function and real name system of digital RMB can make it safer for users to hold digital RMB; On the other hand, the government can better protect the big data information generated by consumers and merchants in the process of digital RMB transactions. At the same time, commercial banks are subject to the dual supervision of the people's Bank of China and the CBRC, which is conducive to improving China's data governance environment and improving the security of consumers' personal data. Fourth, digital RMB is more inclusive and conducive to breaking the payment monopoly. Digital RMB supports offline payment, which is similar to paper money, and can be used in areas and specific places that are not covered by the network; In order to compete, the third party organizations often set up trade barriers (WeChat and Alipay shield each other's payment methods in their respective application scenarios), increasing users' extra payment cost and using burdens (users need to have multiple applications such as WeChat and Alipay at the same time), while the digital renminbi is more conducive to breaking the monopoly of payment. Fifth, digital RMB is more convenient for financial supervision and prevention of financial risks. The traceability of digital RMB enables the central bank to monitor the names, amounts and other complete information of both parties to the transaction, which helps to improve the efficiency of China's financial supervision and help the government crack down on illegal and criminal acts such as money laundering, tax evasion, corruption and telecom network fraud. Digital RMB will have a significant impact on the implementation of China's macro policies The introduction of digital RMB will not only have an impact on China's new payment pattern, but also play a positive role in China's macro policy, especially monetary policy and fiscal policy. First, the application of digital RMB will make the transmission of China's monetary policy more smooth and flexible. The central economic work conference in 2021 proposed that "macro policies should be stable and effective" and "prudent monetary policies should be flexible and appropriate to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity". In the past, the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy was not smooth, and the implementation of monetary policy required financial institutions from the people's Bank of China to commercial banks. The transmission chain was too long, and digital currency would change this transmission path, shorten the transmission chain, and even directly reach enterprises, which would greatly improve the flexibility of monetary policy. Theoretically, this is because the people's Bank of China can monitor the portfolio of digital RMB agents and cross subsidize among agents, but it is impossible if agents use cash. Second, digital RMB can enable China's structural monetary policy to be implemented and further solve the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development in China. On the one hand, monetary policy used to act on the aggregate, and fiscal policy is mainly used for structural problems. However, monetary policy has obvious structural impact on China's economy, including regional and industrial differences of monetary policy. In order to solve the structural differences affected by monetary policy, structural monetary policy is needed. Digital RMB provides a means for the introduction of structural monetary policy. On the other hand, China's economic development has entered a new stage, and the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development is still prominent. The introduction of structural monetary policy can better solve the imbalance of China's economic development. Third, the digital RMB will greatly enhance the inclusiveness of China's finance and promote common prosperity. Digital technology has greatly promoted technological progress and economic growth, but the wide application of digital technology will produce the problem of unequal income distribution, which is not conducive to substantive progress in promoting common prosperity. Digital RMB facilitates the introduction of policies for specific industries, specific regions and specific groups, and is more convenient to solve the problem of unbalanced development, so as to make up for the adverse impact of digital technology on some regions and promote substantial progress in common prosperity. Fourth, digital RMB enhances the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy. The introduction of digital RMB has had a significant impact on fiscal policy. For example, financial direct can make the direct speed faster and the way more flexible; Digital RMB can play an active role in poverty alleviation, structural tax reduction and fee reduction. Fifth, digital RMB is conducive to the implementation of China's policy of expanding domestic demand and the accelerated construction of a new development pattern. First, digital RMB is conducive to improving the business environment and increasing the investment of private enterprises. On the one hand, digital RMB has no handling charges, which reduces the operating costs of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and plays a key role in tax reduction and fee reduction; On the other hand, digital RMB has the function of direct capital, which provides an important means for the central bank to design structural monetary policies to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Second, digital RMB can reduce the cost of the public in the transaction process and boost consumption. The introduction of digital RMB can directly reduce consumption costs, and the state can also introduce more subsidy measures and implement policies accurately through digital RMB. Sixth, digital RMB will play an important role in international payment, help RMB internationalization and ensure China's financial security. The current cross-border payment system is a global network based on swift and chips, which has the problems of low efficiency, high price and poor security. In particular, the core of the existing cross-border payment system is American companies. The United States can use cross-border payment as a tool of financial sanctions to restrict the enterprises of the sanctioned countries

Edit:Huang Huiqun    Responsible editor:Huang Tianxin

Source:gmw.cn

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