Global governance from the perspective of Russia Ukraine situation: Problems and Prospects

2022-03-11

The Russian Ukrainian crisis since February 24 reflects the out of control of international security, the imbalance of major country relations, the disorder of international order and the imbalance of global governance. COVID-19 is still spreading. The crisis in Russia and Ukraine is another manifestation of the global governance crisis. It is a new challenge for global governance to reconstruct the inter state dialogue and regulation mechanism and guarantee the sustainable development of international relations. 1、 The global governance mechanism needs to be reshaped The Russian Ukrainian crisis is a concentrated manifestation of the failure of dialogue among major powers and the lack of global governance consultation platform. In the process of the development of the crisis, western countries and Russia raised their arms status, adopted sanctions and countermeasures, and closed their airspace to each other. The issue involves security governance, economic governance, network governance, aerospace governance and even outer space governance in global governance. First, the centrifugal force of the world's "multi polarization" is stronger. Different big countries that cannot reach an agreement on key issues have chosen to build parallel financial and network systems as a means to deal with external shocks, which makes the centrifugal force of "multipolarization" stronger. In the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the local interbank messaging system of the Bank of Russia (SPFS), which Russia used to deal with sanctions, is Russia's attempt to build a financial system parallel to swift outside the financial rules of the United States. Russia began to build and test the internal LAN "RuNet" separated from the global Internet a few years ago, which is also an attempt to gradually get rid of Russia's Internet infrastructure's dependence on overseas networks and establish a parallel system. The new development trends of these global governance systems are of far-reaching significance to the world. However, the Russian Ukrainian crisis and the sanctions imposed by China, the United States and Europe on Russia show that the US dollar hegemony and scientific and technological strength still continue to exert influence. Therefore, for a long time, as the maker of old rules, the United States still has many tools and means to "lock" other countries. Secondly, the disintegration of the global governance system has deepened, but the reconstruction power is insufficient. The US European sanctions against Russia caused by the Russian Ukrainian crisis have further reduced the degree of Russia's participation in globalization. If the highly exclusive multilateralism continues to prevail, it will not be conducive to the improvement of the efficiency of global governance. The disintegration of the global governance system and the strengthening of the regional cooperation model is a long-term process. In the past, it was manifested in the obstruction of WTO reform, the signing of the US Mexico Canada agreement, the "withdrawal" of the United States, the signing of RCEP and the transfer of national industrial chains at the economic level, and the establishment of the "aukus" US UK Australia security alliance at the political and military level, The establishment of the alliance of Turkic states in 2021. At present, COVID-19 has not yet ended. The crisis in Russia and Ukraine has further accelerated this process, and its manifestations will be more diverse in the future. At the same time, the role of global international organizations has gradually declined, and to some extent, it has changed from a coordinated governance platform to an inter state game platform. For example, during the Russian Ukrainian crisis, the United States expelled a Russian UN staff member and informed the permanent mission of Russia to the United Nations that 12 diplomatic personnel of the Russian mission were listed as "unwelcome" and asked them to leave the United States before March 7. Thirdly, the competition and cooperation model of major countries is challenged again. The difficulty in dealing with modern state relations stems from the complexity of the interweaving and mixing of competition, confrontation and cooperation among countries under the high degree of globalization. In the short and medium term, the Russian Ukrainian crisis has changed the proportion of competition, confrontation and cooperation in the relationship between western countries led by the United States and Russia. The economic sanctions, scientific and technological sanctions, cultural and talent exchange restrictions in the Russian Ukrainian crisis have led to a sharp contraction in the cooperation section of the relationship between western countries and Russia, and the shrinking part will be transferred to the confrontation section, and the probability of the competition section will maintain the status quo. Although the competition between Russia and the United States dominated by military competition can not be compared with that between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war, the competition process has never stopped. Due to the upper limit of economic strength and military investment, the military competition rate will probably maintain the current intensity, while the intensity of Russia US confrontation dominated by geographical confrontation in Eurasia may be further increased, The weakening of the sense of security and the reduction of trust will make both sides more sensitive to geographical issues. 2、 Sanctions war accelerates the process of anti globalization Following the sanctions in Britain, Europe and the United States in 2014, Trump's "exit" diplomacy, Sino US trade frictions and COVID-19, the US and European sanctions against Russia and Russia's anti sanctions in the current crisis in Russia and Ukraine have become a new factor in accelerating the anti globalization. Western countries have long regarded "economy + science and technology + military" as an important indicator of the national strength evaluation system. This US European sanctions against Russia also continue this idea. In terms of economy, it includes not only sanctions against relevant officials, politicians, business operators and entrepreneurs, but also sanctions against enterprises and organizations. Sanctions include the freezing of overseas bank accounts and assets, and more than 120 entities in the military and financial industries of Russia and Belarus are included in the SDN of the financial sanctions list of the US Treasury Department. In addition, some banks such as the Russian Federal Savings Bank, the Russian Foreign Trade Bank and the foreign economic and Trade Bank were removed from the swift system. The sanctions also include cutting off the financing channels of Russian enterprises, especially military enterprises, in the international market, and stopping the review procedures of "beixi-2". In terms of science and technology, Russia is comprehensively restricted from exporting high-tech products, including electronic products, laser products, sensors and other products that have an important impact on Russia. Russia has also taken countermeasures such as closing its airspace to flights from the United States, Britain, Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic, banning the export of rocket engines to the United States, and blocking twitter and Facebook. 3、 Global military security governance returns to focus The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has brought the traditional military security back to the focus, and a series of events have brought the vision of the international community back to the traditional military security issues and nuclear war issues. After the United States officially announced its withdrawal from the US Soviet Treaty on the elimination of medium and short range missiles between the two countries in August 2019, Russia also withdrew from the treaty. The "China missile defense treaty" is the first major nuclear disarmament and arms control agreement reached between the two superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union under the background of the international pattern of bipolar confrontation. It has played a positive historical role in resolving the contradictions between the United States and the Soviet Union and the dangerous confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact military blocs. The termination of the treaty reflects the inconsistency between the two countries' concept of security strategic stability and the development direction of tactical nuclear weapons, which has buried hidden dangers in the subsequent crisis, and also reflects the lack of security coordination platform for today's major powers. To achieve results in global military security governance, all parties must work together to find new pillars that can support balance and stability. In this regard, the Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs also said, "China advocates that we should completely abandon the Cold War mentality and finally form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through dialogue and negotiation." 4、 The importance of global cyberspace governance is growing Information war and public opinion war are one of the important characteristics of the Russian Ukrainian crisis. The manufacturing and dissemination of false information are diverse, and the simulation degree of false information is significantly improved. Faced with such information traps, third countries are extremely difficult to judge. False video content, false pictures and false subtitles emerge one after another, including some false information flowing into China from the Internet. Such false information has been added with subtitles or supporting articles to become information warfare materials, and there are countless cases. In addition, there are different countries in this period, such as cyber attacks and network disconnection. Information war and public opinion war have exposed the vacuum of governance rules in cyberspace. Unlike traditional war, information war and public opinion war are difficult to be blocked by traditional means such as Armistice Agreement, which may be prolonged for a long time and have a serious negative impact on a country's national image. As an emerging field of the global commons, the global cyberspace lacks recognized and mature laws and regulations, and the state of being unable to follow and having no rules to follow is prone to the problem of non neutrality of the system. In terms of shaping network rules in the future, even if rules are formulated, developed countries often have inherent advantages that developing countries cannot surpass. How to protect the voice of developing countries in global cyberspace governance? This issue deserves in-depth consideration. The problem of information warfare in the Russian Ukrainian crisis reflects the disorder in the field of global network governance, which is bound to become a thorny long-term problem in global governance. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:Huang huiqun    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:gmw.cn

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