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Where is the global economy headed in 2025?

2025-04-27   

Looking back at 2024, the global economy struggled along through a slow recovery, characterized by weak momentum, uneven growth, and increasing fragmentation. On one hand, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, along with the rise of unilateralism and protectionism, cast a shadow over the global growth outlook. On the other hand, international trade showed a certain degree of recovery. The rapid development of technologies in fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy has spurred new industrial forms and business models, driving the transformation of traditional industries toward digitization and sustainability, while injecting fresh momentum into economic growth. Recently, the United Nations (UN) predicated that the global trade volume in 2024 would reach 33 trillion dollars, a 3 percent increase.

Entering 2025, some international institutions believe that the world economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth rate will reach 3.2 percent this year, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts that global GDP will grow by 3.3 percent. These projections provide a glimmer of hope for sustained economic recovery. However, the road ahead is far from smooth, as risks and challenges remain severe.

Amid this complex and volatile economic landscape, technological innovation stands out as a key force for breaking the deadlock. The global wave of technological innovation is surging, with new economic forms emerging continuously. From the digital economy to biotechnology, and from smart manufacturing to clean energy, these emerging sectors are increasingly becoming new engines of economic growth. Many countries have increased their investment in technological research and development, striving to gain a foothold in the global technological race, boost industrial competitiveness through technological innovation, and thereby drive sustainable economy growth.

The green transition has also emerged as a key driver of global economic development. With growing attention on climate change, more countries and businesses are integrating green development into their economic agendas. From the popularization of electric vehicles to the large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy, and from the rise of green buildings to the cultivation of lowcarbon industries, the green transition not only addresses environmental challenges but also unlocks new avenues for economic growth, generates significant employment and investment opportunities, and injects strong impetus into sustainable development.

In addition, the "Global South" is playing an increasingly prominent role in reshaping the global economic landscape. The rapid development of emerging economies has made the global economic pattern more diversified. By leveraging their resource endowments, market potential, and policy innovations, these countries and regions are assuming greater roles in global trade, investment, and industrial supply chains — contributing new vitality to global economic growth.

The international community must reject trade protectionism and unilateralism, collaborating to build a fairer, more inclusive, and open global economic governance system that fosters a conducive institutional environment for economic growth.

Looking ahead to 2025, the global economy faces many significant risks and challenges, yet also contains infinite opportunities and potential. Navigating this uncertain landscape will require countries to work together, resist unilateralism, and fully harness the power of technological innovation. By promoting deeper global economic integration and cooperation, the world can chart new pathways for growth and move toward a more prosperous and stable future. Otherwise, the global economy risks prolonged stagnation and deeper crises.

编辑:何川宁 责任编辑:苏穗越

来源:Outlook New Era

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