Financial Focus | Gold Prices Continuously Setting New highs, How Long Can the "Gold Heat" Continue?

2024-03-13

Recently, the gold market has entered a continuous upward trend, with gold futures and spot prices hitting historic highs. Since March, the international gold price has risen by more than 6% in less than ten trading days. As an interest free asset, why did gold prices rise strongly? How long can the "golden fever" continue in the future? The reporter conducted an interview. The international and domestic gold markets have collectively risen. "After the volatile rise of gold prices in 2023, most markets expect a new high in 2024, but it is generally expected to be around the middle of the year. I didn't expect it to come so quickly." Referring to the recent strong rise in the gold market, gold market analyst Cheng Wei told reporters. Since March, gold futures in the New York market have briefly risen above $2200 per ounce. By mid day trading on the 12th, New York gold futures remained hovering around $2190 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 6% in less than 10 trading days. Driven by this, the price of gold denominated in RMB has also risen strongly. AU99.99, which is more active in spot gold trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and the main gold futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have both risen to around 508 yuan per gram, with market gains exceeding 5% during the same period. In the terminal market, most gold stores offer gold jewelry priced at over 650 yuan per gram, and investment gold bars priced at over 520 yuan per gram. On March 11th, reporters saw at several gold shops in Shanghai that consumers were still enthusiastic about gold. Consumer Wang Ling told reporters that seeing the rapid rise in gold prices recently, the plan to purchase gold jewelry for the elderly, originally scheduled for the second half of the year, has been advanced. The sales of terminal consumption and investment tropical gold stores have significantly increased. Jiang Weidong, manager of Laofengxiang Yu Garden Store, said that the sales of his store in the first two months increased by 50% year on year. The reasons behind this are partly driven by holiday elements such as the Spring Festival, leading to increased demand, and partly driven by increased consumer investment. It is worth noting that with the strong rise in gold prices, there has been renewed controversy in the market over the timing of buying and selling, and some investors who purchased at lower costs in the early stages have also chosen to sell at high points to "monetize". "Due to the recent price of gold reaching the psychological expectations of some consumers, the number of consumers coming to the store for gold bar repurchase has also increased," said Jiang Weidong. Why did gold prices rise strongly at the beginning of the year? "This year, the gold market seems to be replicating the market performance of early 2023." Cheng Wei believes that in early 2023, the depreciation of the US dollar, coupled with a series of risk events such as the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley banks, became the main driving factors for the rise in gold prices. Recently, expectations of a shift in monetary policy in Europe and America, as well as ongoing geopolitical risk concerns, have become the main driving factors. "The recent rise in gold prices is partly due to the continued rise in expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and on the other hand, strong demand for physical consumption, which has also made gold assets perform better than other assets." According to Lu Weijia, the trading director of Heraeus Precious Metals in China, some economic data in the United States has eased investors' concerns about inflation, and the market's bet on interest rate cuts has once again intensified. Although the gold held by SPDR, the world's largest gold ETF fund, declined, the increase of the central bank of China and Türkiye made up for the outflow of the market. In addition to the strong gold consumption during the Spring Festival in China, the market demand may still be

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