Expert Reminder on Risk Management for Gold Price's "Waves and Tricks"

2023-10-16

Recently, the trend of gold prices has fluctuated sharply, showing a trend of "ups and downs". During the National Day holiday, the price of gold plummeted significantly. But only a few days later, gold prices rebounded out of the "V-shaped" trend and once again reached high levels. Specifically, taking the closing price of COMEX gold futures (consecutive) as an example, the international gold price continued to decline rapidly from late September to early October. According to Wind data, on September 19th, the COMEX gold futures price was at $1934.0 per ounce, and then fell. On October 5th, it reached its recent lowest point at $1816.5 per ounce, a decrease of 6%. However, since October 5th, COMEX gold futures have experienced a "V-shaped" rebound, reaching $1928.5 per ounce as of October 13th, once again reaching the "1900" level, with an increase of about 6% during the period. What are the reasons why gold prices have been "falling and rising" in such a short period of time? Liu Siyuan, Chief Analyst of Lingxiu Finance, stated in an interview with Securities Daily that gold prices are mainly related to the economic policies of major global economies, gold spot demand, and international geopolitics. Recently, these three factors have alternately affected gold prices, leading to a "V-shaped" reversal. Before the National Day holiday, US economic data exceeded market expectations, leading to a sharp increase in pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. The rebound in the US dollar index suppressed a correction in gold prices. After the National Day holiday, a new round of conflict between Palestine and Israel triggered market panic, with gold prices soaring. During this period, central banks of various countries purchased gold, which also pushed up the price of gold from the perspective of spot demand. Due to the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the value of gold as a safe haven has become prominent. "Weng Zichi, a senior investment advisor at Jufeng Investment Consulting, also analyzed to reporters that the recent intensification of gold price volatility has been repeatedly disturbed by the expected changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Yang Haiping, a researcher at the Institute of Securities and Futures at the Central University of Finance and Economics and the General Manager of the Research and Development Department of Inner Mongolia Bank, told reporters that from late September until now, the fluctuations in gold prices have shown that the surge in the US dollar index and US bond yields is a key factor in the downward trend of gold prices during this period, while risk aversion is the main driving force behind the recent rise in gold prices. The recent trend of domestic gold prices is similar to that of international gold prices. Taking China's gold base gold price as an example, Wind data shows that on September 15th, the base gold price hit a year high of 479.1 yuan/gram. From mid September to September 26th, the base gold price was still fluctuating at the 473 yuan/gram level. But from September 26th to October 3rd, the price of basic gold plummeted significantly, with 440 yuan/gram on October 3rd being the lowest point in the current round, during which it fell by over 8%. Starting from October 3rd, the basic gold price also experienced a "V-shaped" rebound and continued to strengthen. As of October 15th, it was reported to be 464.5 yuan/gram, with an increase of over 5% during the period. The price of brand gold accessories also sits on the "roller coaster". Taking the gold price of Chow Tai Fook as an example, according to data from Jintou. com, in late September, the highest gold price of Chow Tai Fook jewelry reached 615 yuan/gram, and during the National Day holiday, it dropped to 583 yuan/gram, with a decrease of over 30 yuan per gram. However, there has been a rebound since then, reaching the 600 yuan/gram level again as of October 15th, at 602 yuan/gram. In the midst of such drastic fluctuations in gold prices

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:Securities Daily

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