The heavyweight policy has been implemented, and the real estate policy in first tier cities has touched on purchase restrictions. On September 20, the Guangzhou Municipal Government issued the Notice on Optimizing the Steady and Healthy Development Policy of the Real Estate Market in Guangzhou, proposing to adjust the regional scope of the implementation of the housing purchase restriction policy, change the VAT exemption period of second-hand housing from five years to two years, and shrink the social insurance period for the purchase of the first house of non registered residence residents from five years to two years. As a result, Guangzhou became the first first first tier city to adjust purchase restrictions. Why Guangzhou? What is the signal significance? What will the next real estate market be like? Why did Guangzhou take the lead in adjusting purchase restrictions? Not long ago, second tier cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan, and Xiamen have successively adjusted their purchase restrictions. With the adjustment of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou this time, it also means that the purchase restrictions have been extended from second tier cities to first tier cities, with strong signal significance. Other first tier cities may also take corresponding actions, "said Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Research Institute. Overall, this policy adheres to the guidance of doing something but not doing something. "Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that for example, the four districts in the central area of Guangzhou, which have concentrated employment and high demand, adhere to the original purchase restriction policy, while some areas in the secondary peripheral area of Baiyun, which is convenient for commuting and has less supply and is close to the central area, also adhere to the original purchase restriction policy. Why did Guangzhou take the lead in adjusting purchase restrictions in first tier cities? On the one hand, there has been a significant change in the supply and demand relationship in China's real estate market. In the new situation, significant changes have taken place in terms of supply and demand, real estate prospects, housing price expectations, and buying behavior. This is not a cyclical change, but a trend change, "Li Yujia said. Therefore, in the past period of long-term overheating, the regulatory policies characterized by tightening and demand side suppression did not fully adapt to current demand and needed to be withdrawn. On the other hand, it is related to the current situation of the Guangzhou real estate market. In the past two years, the real estate market transactions in Guangzhou have been relatively weak. As of now, the new housing market has experienced a continuous decline for 5 months, with absolute trading levels dropping to a new low since November last year. According to Kerui's statistics, the rate of new market capitalization in Guangzhou was only 9% in August. According to data from Hefu Research Institute, the trading volume of Guangzhou's new housing market has increased by 15%, 6%, and -6% in the three weeks since the new policy was implemented at the end of August. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, Guangzhou's willingness to buy houses and expectations of price increases after the new policy are lower than those of Beijing and Shanghai. Based on the above situation, Guangzhou urgently needs to release new policies to boost market sentiment, avoid negative feedback loops caused by deteriorating expectations and market downturn, and prevent it from significantly dragging down fundamentals such as old reform, investment, and consumption, "said Li Yujia. The "sell one buy one" housing exchange model will accelerate the regulation of the second-hand housing market, which is another focus of Guangzhou's new policies. As for the key value-added tax in second-hand housing transactions, the new policy proposes to change the exemption period from five years to two years, and the social insurance period for non registered residence people to purchase their first home from five years to two years. The adjustment of service life will directly affect the circulation and circulation of commercial housing. The transaction of second-hand houses is closely related to the new housing market. Under the current policy stimulus, a group of demand groups for improved housing need to be replaced through 'sell one buy one'. Whether the 'sell one buy one' can be achieved is crucial