On January 23, the website of the American Diplomatic Scholars published an article by Michael Sween, senior researcher of the East Asia Program of the Quincy Institute of Governance, entitled "What the United States has made wrong with Taiwan and deterrence". The article said that in the past year, the tension between Washington and Beijing on the Taiwan issue has obviously escalated. Some people believe that in order to safeguard the interests of the United States, Washington must rely mainly on military deterrence. But this strategy will almost certainly backfire. A policy centered on military deterrence will not prevent the United States and China from going to war over the Taiwan issue, but may lead to war. According to the article, those who advocate the formulation of strategies based almost entirely on deterrence believe that China hopes to replace the United States as the regional leading force in Asia through military means. They believe that once the Chinese Mainland gains broader military access to the Pacific Ocean by controlling the Taiwan region and deterring its neighbors, it may then threaten Hawaii and the US mainland. According to this analysis, the only choice for the United States is to strengthen its military presence in the region, promote its allies to significantly increase defense spending to support the United States position, and politically and militarily attract Taiwan to become the de facto security ally of the United States in Asia. The implication is that as a strategic place, Taiwan must not be reunified with Chinese Mainland. The article points out that this approach to the situation in the Taiwan Strait is based on an uncertain analysis of the so-called "strategic values" of the Taiwan region and the regional intentions of Chinese Mainland. The article said that, in fact, although some defense experts in the United States and China hold this view today, historically, both Washington and Beijing have never regarded Taiwan as the strategic key of the region. For the Chinese Mainland, the reunification of Taiwan is first of all related to national territorial integrity and national pride; For the United States, Taiwan is closely related to Washington's credibility, which helps the United States maintain its credibility as a loyal supporter of "democratic partner" and as an ally of Japan and South Korea. From a purely military point of view, the article believes that Beijing can gain a decisive advantage over Japan, South Korea or other Asian countries by controlling Taiwan. This judgment is very problematic, let alone that Beijing will also have an advantage over the United States. For the United States, the deterrence policy of promoting the separation of Taiwan and Chinese Mainland out of strategic considerations is incompatible with its one China policy. According to its one-China policy, Washington opposes any unilateral "Taiwan independence" action. However, US President Biden has repeatedly said that if Chinese Mainland attacks Taiwan, the US will carry out military intervention. According to the article, China's conclusion from these statements and other actions is that the statement of the United States supporting the one-China policy is no longer completely credible. In response, Beijing has increased its military pressure on Taiwan and gained the ability to deter US military intervention. This confrontational reaction cycle greatly increases the risk of miscalculation, which may lead to military conflicts. The article points out that if the United States and China sincerely hope to avoid war over the Taiwan issue, they must take meaningful actions to end the current vicious circle. First of all, they can refuse to accept the worst assessment made by hawkish strategists with military as the center, and no longer