What should China do to prepare for the era of negative population growth?

2023-01-30

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the national population will decrease by 850000 in 2022. This is the first time since the reform and opening up that the total population of the country has entered the negative growth range. Considering that the total working-age population has entered the decline channel several years ago, this indicates that China's population development has entered a new negative growth stage, and this trend is difficult to reverse in the short term. The fact of negative population growth has caused a large psychological impact on the social level in the short term, and its impact on economic and social development may take a longer period of time to gradually manifest. Stable population growth is a necessary condition for sustainable economic and social development, but it does not mean that economic development stagnates and living standards will not improve in a society with negative population growth. Throughout the history of population development in various countries around the world, the population growth rate in the process of industrialization and income growth presents an inverted U-shaped trend of first growth and then decline, which is also known as population transformation in academia. Some highly industrialized countries have very low fertility rate and high degree of aging, but this does not prevent their citizens from enjoying a very high level of social security and quality of life. It is inevitable that China has entered the stage of negative population growth. We should learn from the policy experience of countries around the world to cope with the decline of population growth and the acceleration of aging, actively adjust and properly respond to it, minimize the negative population growth and the consequent impact of aging, and continue to promote high-quality economic and social development. In response to the trend of negative population growth and aging, it is necessary to take the adjustment of the legal retirement age as the main line, encourage the employment of the elderly labor force and encourage enterprise employers to expand the employment of the elderly labor force as the two wings, at the same time, improve the employment laws and regulations, adjust the labor tax and transfer payment system, ease the income and expenditure pressure of the social security system and reduce the inequality of the elderly. Delaying the legal retirement age is an important policy measure for industrialized countries to cope with population transformation, and also a policy focus that China needs to focus on during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In recent years, some European countries have reformed their labor market policies and have taken the phased postponement of the legal retirement age as an important part of the reform, breaking the 65 year old legal retirement age line and no longer forcing employees to retire. The legal age for pension in the UK has been reformed, and it is planned to postpone to 66 years old in 2026 and 67 years old in 2028; The result of the reform of the statutory retirement age in Germany is gradually postponed to 67 years old; Denmark, Finland and other countries have postponed the retirement age by a greater extent and for a longer period. After the postponement of the statutory retirement age, the data shows that the labor participation rate of the population aged 55 to 64 in various countries has increased significantly, which not only reduces the payment burden of the public pension system, but also creates new economic value for the society. The "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" for the Development of National Aged Undertaking and the Elderly Care Service System issued by the State Council has clearly proposed that the legal retirement age should be gradually delayed, and some provinces have started the pilot work of delaying retirement. It is expected that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's legislation on delaying the legal retirement age will gradually come into effect. Only delaying the retirement age can not fundamentally solve the shortage of labor structure in the period of negative population growth and deepening aging, and relevant supporting policies need to undertake the implementation of the delayed retirement policy. First, we should improve supporting policies and measures to encourage elderly workers

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:china.com.cn

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