Asia's economy has growth momentum and resilience

2023-01-13

Several international institutions predict that the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies in Asia will be significantly higher than that of the global and developed economies in 2022. Looking ahead to 2023, Asia's economic growth will face several major challenges: the difficulties in export growth caused by the slowdown of economic growth in the United States and Europe, the high operation of commodity prices caused by the long-term crisis in Ukraine, and the unnecessary interference caused by geopolitical issues. Nevertheless, the Asian economy will still show its growth momentum and resilience. Asia is still one of the most dazzling growth stars in the world economy in the face of the impact of high global inflation in 2022, the Ukrainian crisis and the COVID-19. The latest issue of the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund predicts that the economic growth of emerging markets and developing economies in Asia will be 4.4% in 2022, which is still significantly higher than the global forecast of 3.2% and 2.4% of developed economies. Looking ahead to 2023, despite the potential challenges of weakening external demand, high commodity prices and international turbulence, the Asian economy may still show its growth momentum and resilience. The International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank forecast the economic growth of emerging markets and developing economies in Asia to be 4.9% and 4.6% respectively in 2023. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that the major emerging market economies in Asia will contribute about 75% of the global GDP growth in 2023. In particular, the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention policy and the overall recovery of the economy will inject huge new momentum into Asia's economic growth. It is expected that all major institutions will raise their forecasts for Asia's economic growth in 2023. The biggest economic growth momentum in Asia in 2023 will undoubtedly come from China. In 2023, China will better coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and promote the overall improvement of economic operation. With the adjustment of various epidemic prevention and control measures, after a period of transition, the consumer demand that has been silent for three years is expected to start gradually, and the retail growth rate of social consumer goods is expected to significantly exceed the average growth rate of the past three years. In terms of investment demand, under the incentives of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment are expected to maintain the growth trend in 2022, and the worrying real estate development investment is expected to recover moderately after the completion of the bottom in the first half of 2023. Although the import and export trade, which has maintained a good growth momentum for two years, is facing many challenges from the uncertain external environment, it also has the advantages of increasing cross-border personnel flow and improving the efficiency of cross-border commodity inspection and quarantine, and should be able to maintain a general stability. Morgan Stanley raised China's economic growth forecast for 2023 from 5% to 5.4% in the middle of December 2022, fully demonstrating its confidence in China's economic growth in 2023. As the largest economy in Asia, the rebound of China's economic growth has not only directly boosted the economic growth in Asia, but also created huge new demand for countries in Asia and the world. It has brought huge growth opportunities for countries' commodity exports, tourism recovery, investment income, etc. The stable and high-quality goods made in China have also injected sufficient confidence for countries to fight serious inflation. In 2023, other countries and regions in Asia will be able to maintain their economic fundamentals

Edit:wangwenting    Responsible editor:xiaomai

Source:gmw.cn

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