The pattern of "internal strength and external weakness" of bulk commodities is expected to continue to have short-term trading opportunities

2022-12-12

Recently, the pattern of "internal strength and external weakness" of the bulk commodity market is obvious, and the trend of the domestic commodity market is obviously stronger than that of the external market. Analysts believe that the adjustment of real estate support policies and epidemic prevention policies has boosted confidence in the domestic market in the near future, and the domestic bulk commodity market has strengthened. Given the constant background of the global economic downturn, the pattern of "strong inside and weak outside" of bulk commodities is expected to continue in the long run. The policy supports the strong domestic commodity market Since November, the bulk commodity market has shown a trend of "internal strength and external weakness". According to the data of Wenhua Finance and Economics, as of the closing of December 9, the Wenhua Commodity Index has risen by 5.2% since November, of which the industrial product futures index has risen by 8.2%, while the agricultural product futures index has fallen slightly; Over the same period, the CRB index, which represents the trend of international bulk commodities, fell 3.6%. "Domestically, in the last month, domestic policies have changed significantly, including the '16 real estate projects' in mid November, and the subsequent adjustment of epidemic prevention policies, which have boosted the market's confidence in the economy. The expectation of domestic demand repair has increased, bringing greater positive impact on the domestic market, and is an important factor in the" domestic strength and external weakness "of bulk commodities." Li Yansen, chief macroeconomic researcher of Founder Medium term Futures Research Institute, told China Securities Journal. "On the one hand, China has introduced a series of policies to support real estate, which has effectively defused the operational risks of real estate enterprises; on the other hand, the financial market has expectations for the release of residents' consumption potential after the adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention measures. The policy support from both sides is the main reason for the strong performance of the domestic commodity market in the near future." Wang Jianfeng, a strategic analyst at the Investment Consulting Department of Nanhua Research Institute, said. At the time of the differentiation of domestic and foreign commodity markets, the BDI (Baltic Dry Bulk Index), which is known as the "wind vane" of bulk commodities, has shown a shock trend of first suppressing and then rising since November, and is still in the shock and falling trend since October this year. How does the change of this indicator affect commodity prices? "Behind the weak shock of BDI, in terms of demand, the continued pressure drop of the global economy has hit the demand for shipping; in terms of supply, the scale of launching new ships has continued to increase, and the impact of the global COVID-19 has declined, and the improvement of ship and port efficiency has also increased supply in a disguised way; from the cost side, the continued weakness of international oil prices has had a negative impact on freight." According to Li Yansen, BDI has weakened due to shocks, which has the effect of saving the landed cost of goods and helps reduce the price difference between domestic and foreign goods. There are short-term trading opportunities. From the perspective of major asset investment, some analysts believe that the policy shift of the Federal Reserve has brought short-term and medium-term positive effects on the commodity market. There are trading opportunities for commodities in the short term, but the value of long-term and medium-term investments will be differentiated. "In the medium and long term, due to the unsynchronized economic cycles at home and abroad, domestic demand dominated and global demand dominated varieties have different positions in the investment clock." Li Yansen analyzed, "We believe that at present, China is still in the early stage of recovery, so the prices of domestic demand dominated varieties such as black and some non-ferrous varieties still have the potential to rise, but there is interference from overseas risks, which may show a bottoming and partially strong trend in the long run. The United States and other developed countries are in the transition period from stagflation to recession, and overseas dominated varieties such as

Edit:wangwenting    Responsible editor:xiaomai

Source:china.cn

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