Japanese media: "counterattack" in the Middle East may change the global order

2022-11-23

On November 16, the Japanese Economic News published an article entitled "Counterattack in the Middle East - Reducing Oil Production to Protect Yourself". The authors are Takeshi Kumamoto, Hiro Fukushima and Hideki Qibu. The excerpt of the full text is as follows: Saudi Arabia and Russia and other major oil producing countries began to implement large-scale production reduction in November, causing a thousand waves. The Biden administration did not hide its anxiety about the decision to cut production against the will of the United States. The huge amount of oil capital, which has been silent for a long time, is intended to flow into the financial market again. What kind of waves will the "counterattack in the Middle East" cause to the global market and economy? The United States regards the substantial reduction of production as a Saudi led action. The White House spokesman Jean Pierre criticized Saudi Arabia for "keeping pace with Russia". Saudi Arabia is also suspected of colluding with Russia and causing high oil prices. Although the United States released its strategic reserve oil in October, it was criticized by Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman, who said that it used the strategic reserve to manipulate the market. Saudi Arabia's view is that the decision to reduce production is based on "economic considerations". The increase of interest rates in the United States and other countries has led to economic slowdown, which may reduce oil demand. Saudi Arabia can only reduce supply to ensure oil prices. In Saudi Arabia's view, the energy crisis began as early as February before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. Amin Nasser, president and CEO of state-owned Saudi Aramco, advocated at the "World Managers Conference" of the Nikkei Economic Forum held on 9 this month that "investment in the oil and gas industry has begun to plummet." As Europe and the United States reduce oil investment to achieve the goal of decarbonization, the Middle East and Russia are taking the lead in the oil market. The capacity adjustment of the OPEC+mechanism established by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia and other countries has become increasingly powerful, consolidating the unity between Saudi Arabia and Russia. OPEC's oil output accounts for about 30% of the world's total, while OPEC+, including Russia, accounts for almost 40%. The contradiction between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which has traditionally been pro American, has been accumulated for a long time. For the United States, Saudi oil was once a matter of life and death; For Saudi Arabia, the security provided by the United States is indispensable. But since the beginning of this century, the shale revolution has helped the United States to become the largest oil producer, and its dependence on the Middle East is not as strong as before. The oil imported by the United States from OPEC has decreased to one tenth of the peak value. The focus of the United States' diplomacy has also begun to turn to confrontation with China, and the momentum of being far away from the Middle East has become increasingly obvious. When Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July this year, he asked Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production in person, but his desire failed. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia started large-scale production reduction before the mid-term elections in the United States. The relationship between the Middle East and the United States has been affecting the stability of the oil market and the trend of inflation. Different from the past, China is now the largest buyer of Saudi Aramco, and its sense of existence is growing. Saudi Arabia is trying to further deepen its relations with China, and the room for accepting the American proposition is becoming smaller. The increasingly estranged relationship between the United States and the Middle East may also be a source of tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Concerns about oil supply in the Middle East may further push up oil prices and increase inflationary pressure. High oil price

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:Weize

Source:cankao xiaoxi

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