The market has gradually warmed up, and the transaction volume of commercial housing in some cities has increased significantly

2022-05-27

"I woke up. The colleagues in the store signing center haven't finished their work. The market has warmed up, and I didn't feel sleepy for a moment." Recently, a real estate agent in Nanjing released such a circle of friends at 12:31 p.m. Recently, all localities have optimized real estate policies on the premise of "no speculation in housing" and "implementing policies due to the city", and the trading volume of commercial housing in some cities has increased significantly. Institutional monitoring shows that last week (May 16 to May 22), the trading volume of commercial houses in Nanjing, Suzhou and other places achieved positive growth compared with the previous week. Experts predict that with the reduction of LPR interest rate over five years, more cities will optimize supporting policies such as housing and loan recognition standards in the future. Positive growth in some cities The trading volume of newly-built commercial houses in 15 key cities monitored by Zhuge housing search data research center last week (May 16 to May 22) was 17584 units, down 2.66% from the previous week, and the trading volume of second-hand houses decreased 1.97% from the previous week. Although the overall trading volume of new and second-hand houses in the 15 key cities monitored by the agency fell last week, some cities achieved positive growth. In the new housing market, 1517 units were sold in Suzhou from May 16 to May 22, an increase of 80.81% over the previous week; 1470 sets were sold in Nanjing, an increase of 42.30% over the previous week. In addition, the turnover of new houses in Wenzhou and Qingdao also achieved positive growth compared with the previous week. In terms of second-hand houses, the trading volume in Suzhou increased by 11.53% and that in Nanjing increased by 3.88% compared with the previous week. "The property market policies of Nanjing and Suzhou have undergone several rounds of adjustment recently, and it is effective to transmit them to the sales end. For example, the cancellation of the restrictions on the sale of second-hand houses in Suzhou is conducive to increasing the supply of houses and improving the liquidity of the second-hand house market." Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, told reporters. It is reported that the time limit for the transfer of new houses in the new deal of Suzhou property market is adjusted from 3 years to 2 years, and the time limit for the transfer of second-hand houses is adjusted from 3 years to no longer limit the transfer period. The website of Nanjing housing provident fund management center recently issued a notice that since May 20, 2022, if the housing provident fund loan is used for the first time to buy a second house, the maximum loan amount of the provident fund will be adjusted from the current 300000 yuan / person and 600000 yuan / household for both husband and wife to 500000 yuan / person and 1 million yuan / household for both husband and wife. Policies are expected to be further optimized Recently, relevant departments and local governments have frequently issued policies to support rigid and improved housing demand. The reduction of mortgage interest rate is an important direction. On May 20, the people's Bank of China authorized the national interbank lending center to announce that the one-year LPR was 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month; LPR over 5 years was 4.45%, down 15 basis points from the previous month. "The asymmetric interest rate cut reflects that the monetary policy has further strengthened its support for key areas such as real estate. The five-year LPR has been reduced by 15 basis points to 4.45%, and it has been reduced again after three months. It has also reached the largest decline in history, exceeding market expectations. It is also the only five-year variety to be reduced separately so far." Xia Yifeng, chief analyst of BOC securities real estate industry, said. In 103 key cities monitored by the shell Research Institute, the mainstream first home loan interest rate in May was 4.91%, and the second home loan interest rate was 5.32%, down 26 basis points and 13 basis points respectively from the previous month, a new low since 2019. Xia Yifeng said that from the perspective of the actual policy implementation effect, the role of the adjustment of housing loan interest rate is relatively limited. If the follow-up financial sector has more credit policies with stronger market effectiveness, such as reducing the lower limit of the down payment ratio of commercial loans, and local governments continue to adjust the standard of "housing and loan recognition", it can play a more effective role in boosting market confidence by cooperating with the loose policies of other industries and expanding in higher-level core cities. China Securities News reporter noted that Changchun, Luzhou and other places have made it clear that they "recognize loans but not houses". Chen Wenjing, market research director of index division of China Index Research Institute, said that with the reduction of LPR interest rate over five years, it is expected that more cities will optimize supporting policies such as "house and loan recognition" standards. The superposition of multiple policies is conducive to amplify the effect of interest rate reduction and promote the release of rigid and improved housing demand. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:China Securities Journal

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