In April, a number of economic indicators declined, and the short-term pressure remained stable

2022-05-19

On May 16, the April economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that due to the more complex and severe international environment and the obvious impact of the domestic epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy further increased, and the main economic indicators such as industry, service industry, investment and consumption fell. "The epidemic in April has had a great impact on the economic operation, but this impact is short-term and external. The fundamentals of China's stable, medium and long-term economic growth have not changed, the general trend of transformation and upgrading and high-quality development has not changed, and there are many favorable conditions for stabilizing the macro-economic Market and achieving the expected development goals." Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of the national economy, said that as the epidemic prevention and control achieved phased results, the economic stabilization policies and measures continued to be effective, and the economic operation is expected to recover gradually. Increase the downward pressure on the economy Affected by the impact of the epidemic, in April, the added value of industries above designated size decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, the production index of service industry decreased by 6.1%, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 11.1%. The unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 6.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of production, mining, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply among the three major industrial categories maintained growth in April, but the manufacturing industry decreased by 4.6%, mainly affected by the decline of automobile and other equipment manufacturing industries. In April, the added value of automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 31.8% year-on-year. From a regional perspective, affected by the epidemic, the added value of industries above Designated Size in the Yangtze River Delta decreased by 14.1% and that in Northeast China decreased by 16.9%. At present, industrial production is facing certain pressure, which is mainly reflected in insufficient market demand, decline in the level of production and marketing connection, blocking points in the industrial chain supply chain, poor production cycle, rising production costs and declining profitability. Nevertheless, the characteristics of China's complete industrial system and strong supporting capacity have not changed. In the first four months of this year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4%. With the control of the epidemic, the gradual opening of transportation and logistics, the improvement of production cycle, especially the continuous efforts of tax reduction and fee reduction and enterprise relief policies, will effectively promote the continuous recovery of industrial production. In terms of consumption, the sales of non daily necessities and catering sales were significantly affected by the epidemic in April, driving down the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods. In April, the retail sales of goods decreased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the catering revenue decreased by 22.7%. From a regional perspective, the retail sales of consumer goods above the quota in the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China, which were seriously impacted by the epidemic, decreased by more than 30% year-on-year. However, the basic living supply of residents is still effectively guaranteed, and the sales of relevant commodities maintain growth. As the production and living order gradually returns to normal, the previously suppressed consumption will be released in an orderly manner. Since the middle and late April, the domestic epidemic has tended to decline as a whole, which is conducive to creating a suitable consumption environment. At the same time, stabilizing the macro-economic market, strengthening assistance to enterprises, stabilizing posts and expanding employment will ensure residents' consumption ability. In addition, various policies to promote consumption have shown remarkable effects, and the recovery trend of China's consumption is expected to continue. The fundamentals of long-term improvement remain unchanged "The fundamentals of China's stable and long-term economic growth have not changed, the factors and conditions supporting high-quality development have not changed, and the characteristics of sufficient toughness, great potential and wide space have not changed." Fu Linghui said that with the support of policies and measures to effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, China's economy can overcome the impact of the epidemic, gradually stabilize and recover, and maintain stable and healthy development. China's total economic scale ranks second in the world, with obvious advantages in large market scale, complete industrial system and strong supporting capacity, which provides a strong guarantee for resisting various risks. In April, some areas were seriously affected by the epidemic, but the total scale of major production demand indicators across the country is still considerable. In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 2.9 trillion yuan, and the total import and export reached 3.2 trillion yuan. From the cumulative point of view, the main indicators of the country still maintained growth. In the first four months, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, and the investment in fixed assets and total import and export increased by 6.8% and 7.9% respectively. Under the impact of the epidemic, China's basic industries such as grain and energy have maintained growth, laying a solid foundation for fighting the epidemic and promoting economic recovery. The supply of materials related to the basic life of residents is sufficient, and the market price is basically stable. The effective implementation of the new combined tax support policy has played a positive role in alleviating the difficulties of enterprises. "The economic operation is expected to improve in May." Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, we should effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase macro policy adjustment, accelerate the implementation of the determined policies, and minimize the adverse impact of the epidemic on economic operation. We will firmly stabilize the economic fundamentals "In the face of downward pressure on the economy, it is crucial to stabilize the economy through investment." Fu Linghui said. Since the beginning of this year, the policy of steady growth and steady investment has continued to work. All localities have actively promoted the construction of major projects, continuously expanded the scale of investment and continuously optimized the investment structure, which will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, promoting development and benefiting people's livelihood. Affected by the epidemic, investment in some areas has been restricted recently, but from the perspective of leading indicators, there is still good support for the sustained growth of investment. In the first four months, the total investment of new construction plans increased by 28%; Among the funds invested in place, the state budget increased by 29.7% and self raised funds increased by 13.5%. In terms of consumption, online consumption and upgrading consumption will still become important support. In April, although the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased, the recovery of consumption will accelerate with the gradual control of the epidemic. More efforts have been made to aid enterprises and stabilize posts, and the basic employment situation is generally stable, which is conducive to ensuring residents' income and consumption ability. Some traditional contact consumption will accelerate the transfer to online, and the upgrading trend of residents' consumption will continue, which is conducive to supporting consumption growth. In terms of exports, the global epidemic and geopolitical conflicts are intertwined and superimposed, the tightening of policies in major economies is accelerated, and the downside risk of the world economy is increased. At the same time, the supply of foreign production has gradually increased, increasing the pressure of China's export competition. However, China has a complete industrial system and strong supply capacity of manufacturing industry, which can quickly adapt to the changes of external demand. "The disturbance of the epidemic will not change the trend of China's stable economic operation, nor will it change the characteristics of China's economy with sufficient toughness, great potential and wide space. With the support of various policies, the national economy will accelerate the recovery and achieve stabilization and recovery." Fu Linghui said. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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