While the national real estate market continues to be depressed, Beijing and other places show very different performance. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed that house prices in Beijing showed a rising trend, and its rise was in the forefront among 70 cities. In the current Beijing real estate market, who is buying a house? This year's golden, silver and four seasons, how is the quality of Beijing's property market? Will house prices in Beijing rise or fall in the future? It hasn't opened for three months and sold three suites in one month Zhang Ming works in a large real estate agency in Beijing. I love my family (2.870, 0.01, 0.35%). Since last December, for three consecutive months, Zhang Ming's house has not been sold and rarely seen. After three years in the industry, he heard from his peers that previously, at the end of 2008, 2012 and 2017, the second-hand housing market in Beijing continued to be depressed, and many people failed to survive the cold winter of the property market. However, since March this year, Zhang Ming's viewing volume has increased suddenly. The final result surprised even Zhang Ming. In March, Zhang Ming and his team sold three houses; Since April, he has sold two more houses. In Beijing's second-hand housing intermediary industry, it is common in this industry to fail to sell a house for three months or even six months. It is obviously very rare to sell five houses in two months. "In normal years, every March and April, Beijing's property market often staged a wave of spring," Zhang Ming told China Newsweek. "Since March this year, 80 houses have been sold in the region, and there are many on the way orders." At another store in Fengtai District of Beijing where I love my family, the store manager told China Newsweek that the store sold 10 suites in March, nearly double that of February this year. Chain home is located in a store in Chaoyang District, Beijing. Several real estate consultants said that their store sold 8 Suites in March, with a month on month increase of more than 50%. Second hand housing is the main transaction in the current Beijing real estate market. Among them, the sum of the transaction volume of Lianjia and I love my family accounts for more than half of the second-hand housing market in Beijing. These large-scale intermediary companies' generally rising turnover momentum in stores is closely related to the latest real estate market dynamics. Statistics show that in March, 18987 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing, up 107.3% from February this year; Among them, 17085 second-hand houses were sold, up 106.8% month on month. Moreover, since August 2021, the second-hand housing market in Beijing has been basically in decline, which means that the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing in March this year reached an eight month high. In this regard, Zhao Xiuchi, a researcher at the Research Institute of mega urban economic and social development of Capital University of economics and trade and vice president and Secretary General of Beijing real estate law society, told China Newsweek that the trading volume of Beijing's real estate market was rising recently and there was a certain recovery momentum. According to the monitoring of Heshuo real estate agency, 24333 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing in March last year, which was also the peak of the market last year; From April to July last year, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing remained at a high level of about 20000 units. In contrast, in March this year, second-hand housing in Beijing decreased by 22% year-on-year, which is also lower than the trading volume from April to July last year. Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo real estate agency, told China Newsweek that compared with last year, Beijing's real estate market showed a stabilizing trend in March this year. In April this year, judging from the current transaction volume, it is expected that the transaction of second-hand houses in the whole month will remain at about 15000 units. Compared with the level of 20000 units in April last year, April this year will also be in a relatively stable state. Leng Hui, a market analyst at Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, said that from the perspective of single quarter transactions, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing in the first quarter of this year was 35000 units, the transaction scale was flat month on month, the average transaction price increased slightly, and the overall operation of the market was stable. Just need to push up house prices? According to Zhao Xiuchi's analysis, "under the background of stabilizing the property market and stabilizing the economy, favorable policies such as RRR reduction have been launched one after another, the property market is expected to have some positive changes, and some demand has begun to enter the market". Leng Hui told China Newsweek, "the market recovery rate this year is faster than that in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. The main reason is that compared with the second half of last year, the bank credit line is sufficient, and the loan approval and lending speed of home buyers are relatively fast, so as to speed up the market turnover and expand the transaction scale to a certain extent". "In fact, what deserves more in-depth attention is the demand structure of the real estate market," Zhao Xiuchi told China Newsweek. At present, the main factors actively entering the market are rigid demand and improvement demand; To some extent, this is just the need for centralized release in the context of non speculation in housing and housing. "At present, the main transactions in Beijing's real estate market are just needs and just changed needs, which account for the highest proportion in the market." Guo Yi said that compared with the loose real estate market regulation policies issued by other cities, Beijing's real estate market policies are still in a state of continuous and strict control, and there is no leniency. Therefore, at present, the main force of house buyers still choose to buy houses in the market based on their own real living needs. Leng Hui said that in Beijing's demand for house purchase, the proportion of newly reformed people who have improved the sale of existing housing groups in Beijing is high. The proportion of demand for rigid improvement in this part is much higher than that in other cities, including quality improvement, pension improvement and other types. According to the further analysis of the cold meeting, due to the relatively stable house prices in Beijing and the difficulty in obtaining housing purchase qualifications, for investment model buyers, Beijing has less room for housing arbitrage, long arbitrage cycle and difficult leverage, which is not an ideal choice for speculation. Therefore, the proportion of speculative buyers in Beijing is low, and the vast majority of buyers are driven by real housing demand. However, under this demand background, house prices in Beijing are rising. The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that in March, the sales price of new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 0.3% month on month, including 0.4% in Beijing; Second hand housing in the first tier cities rose 0.4% month on month, of which Beijing rose 1.2%, ranking in the forefront among the four first tier cities. Guo Yi believes that under the overall stabilized market pattern, price differentiation may be formed between regional plates. In some regions with better supporting facilities and good industrial layout, the price of second-hand housing will rise, so as to promote the overall second-hand housing price to rise. Leng Hui also said that Beijing has the possibility of a slight upward price in some areas due to factors such as infrastructure improvement and regional quality improvement. From the current visit, house prices in the suburbs of Daxing and Shunyi in Beijing show a trend of more or less decline, while those in the six districts of the city are more or less decline. Taking Huangcun, Guanyin temple and other areas in Daxing District of Beijing as an example, the overall house price of many second-hand housing communities has decreased by 10% or even 20%, but the house price of second-hand housing communities in Dongcheng and Xicheng districts is still relatively strong, and the house price of many communities has increased to a certain extent. This structural rise is also reflected in more aspects. As a recent house change demand, Mr. Fang has a unique observation on the property market. Since last year, Mr. Fang has paid attention to 50 large two bedroom and three bedroom houses on an app. From house type to price, these houses are basically suitable for his needs of changing houses and buying real estate. To his surprise, in addition to the withdrawal of the sales application of three Suites by the owner, all the other 47 houses were sold one after another. For the trend of house prices, Mr. Fang intuitively noticed that the 47 houses were sold at a relatively low price at the beginning, and then at a relatively high price. However, the prices of these houses did not change much during the listing period, and there were not many upward quotations. Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute, told China Newsweek that each city has different attraction to foreign population. Different cities will have different supply and demand relations in the real estate market. As a first tier city, Beijing has a large migrant population and the overall demand for house purchase is still large, which is the fundamental driving force for the rise of house prices in first tier cities such as Beijing. Will the future market rise and fall sharply? Guo Yi said that as far as the future is concerned, there is little room for house prices to rise in Beijing, and the probability will be mainly stable. Leng Hui said that Beijing has the market characteristics of high replacement, strong control and low leverage, that is, house buyers are mainly replacement, strong policy determination, fast feedback and low overall leverage. The vast majority of house buyers are driven by real housing demand, and making good use of existing policy tools can effectively control the rise of house prices. In short, there is a low possibility of overall and substantial price rise and fall in Beijing. At present, since April, there has been a certain shock in Beijing's property market again. According to the statistics of Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, up to now, the transaction scale in April is expected to decline by 10% - 20%. The above-mentioned manager of I love my store said that 10 sets were sold in the whole store in March, but only 6 sets have been sold so far in April. From Zhang Ming's trading situation, his trading volume in April was also one suite less than that in March. In this regard, the cold meeting analysis said that the main reason is that the epidemic situation in Beijing has been repeated to a certain extent, all links of housing transactions have been affected by the epidemic to varying degrees, and the overall transaction rhythm has slowed down, but it is expected that the relevant demand may resume release after the epidemic, and the overall impact is controllable. "In the current situation, policies should also be relaxed, especially for rigid demand and improvement demand, and corresponding policies should be issued," Zhao Xiuchi said. Guo Yi said that judging from the current regulation and control policies in Beijing, families with improved demand for changing houses are actually facing great difficulties in buying houses. Due to the implementation of the policy of recognizing houses and loans in Beijing, some families with improved changing houses need to bear up to 80% of the down payment, which is obviously a large burden and affects the release of more self occupied demand. According to the expected direction of the "News Weekly - financial policy to improve the supply of real estate, the supply of real estate can be increased in a reasonable way". To this end, he suggested that on the demand side, we should take practical measures according to the city, improve housing demand, provide stable credit support, and meet the loan demand of first-time home buyers; We will vigorously develop the housing rental market and increase financial support for affordable rental housing. On the financial side, create a loose financial environment and alleviate the pressure of cash flow and debt of real estate enterprises. With the change of policy and market, will speculative demand for investment enter the market? Will house prices rise rapidly? In this regard, Lian Ping believes that on the basis of adhering to the principle of "no speculation in housing and housing", the policy must highlight the "implementation of policies due to the city". First tier cities such as Beijing, including key second tier cities, should maintain high-pressure regulatory policies for illegal house purchase. Zhao Xiuchi said that Beijing's property market will still implement the positioning of "no speculation in housing and housing" in the future. At present, the demand for speculation in the market has been relatively rare, and the investment demand in the future should still be cautious. (Zhang Ming is a pseudonym in the text) (Xinhua News Agency)