Can China's "grain bag" be stable under internal and external shocks?

2022-04-19

"Food is the most important thing for the people". This year's sudden change in the international environment has severely disturbed the unstable international food prices. At the time of spring ploughing and preparation, there was an epidemic in Northeast China, which made many people begin to worry about domestic food security. On the 18th, the National Bureau of statistics released the agricultural production in the first quarter, giving people a "reassurance". Expert: domestic grain production may increase steadily Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said at the meeting that the total output value of planting industry increased by 4.8% in the first quarter. Affected by the severe flood last autumn, the sowing date of Winter Wheat in some areas has been significantly prolonged, the sowing area of winter wheat has decreased steadily and slightly, and the seedling condition is weak. Since the spring of this year, the climate in the main winter wheat producing areas has been generally suitable. All localities have strengthened field management, and the seedling situation has gradually improved. At the same time, the northwest region has also actively expanded the planting area of spring wheat, and the total planting area of wheat is basically the same. "It can be seen from the data that China's grain output is guaranteed this year." Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of rural development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Zhongxin finance and economics that the goal of a total grain output of more than 1.3 trillion kilograms can be achieved and the grain output can increase steadily. In addition, according to the annual planting intention survey, the intended sowing area of wheat and rice in China is generally stable, and the intended sowing area of soybean has increased more. "Although China's grain output has been stable at more than 1.3 trillion Jin for seven consecutive years, the structural contradiction is still prominent. There are more imports of soybeans and some grain prices are still high. If the grain output is guaranteed and the structure is improved this year, it will be of great positive significance to better meet the needs of consumers and deal with the fluctuations of the international market." Li Guoxiang added. Local prevention and control will not have a significant impact on spring ploughing Northeast China is an important granary in China. Recently, it is an important season for spring cultivation and preparation in Northeast China, but the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Jilin and other places is still severe. To this end, many departments and localities have introduced a number of measures to ensure grain production in spring. For example, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has set up a special class for the protection and supply of agricultural materials and a hotline to help solve the problems of blocking points such as the supply of agricultural materials, farmers going to the field and agricultural machinery on the road in time. 12 departments including the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, and the general supply and marketing cooperative will jointly establish a national working mechanism for ensuring the supply and price stability of chemical fertilizer, so as to effectively ensure that the market volume of chemical fertilizer is sufficient and the price is stable. In order to ensure that all kinds should be planted, Jilin Province also allocated 12.2 billion yuan of land subsidies, agricultural machinery subsidies and grain subsidies from the central government, together with 3.1 billion yuan of provincial financial funds, and arranged 2 to 3 large seedling raising stations in villages and towns for reserve production to ensure the emergency supply of seedling raising. "In the early stage, due to the epidemic prevention and control, the preparation of farmland in some areas was indeed affected, but in the later stage, the government issued targeted policies, the adverse impact was greatly reduced, and the impact on spring farming may not be obvious." Li Guoxiang said. Fu Linghui also revealed at the press conference that "spring ploughing preparation has been carried out smoothly and orderly." According to the data, as of April 11, 141 million mu of grain had been sown in spring, accounting for 15% of the intended area, with a year-on-year progress of 0.9 percentage points. 58.6% of China's early rice has been planted, with a year-on-year progress of 5.2 percentage points. "Judging from the next stage, the stability of grain production is still guaranteed." Fu Linghui said that first, all localities have compacted production responsibilities at all levels to ensure stable grain production. Second, support for grain production has been strengthened. Third, improve planting efficiency. Since 2021, farmers have increased their willingness to grow grain, and their income has increased steadily. "Of course, we should also see that the cost of growing grain has increased, and there are uncertainties in meteorological disasters, diseases and pests. We should still pay close attention to grain production and ensure food security." Fu Linghui pointed out. The international food crisis will not affect domestic food security Due to the high demand, agricultural materials and transportation costs and the interruption of port operation, the rising international food price since the second half of 2020 reached an all-time high in February 2022. According to FAO data, Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter. They provide 19% of the world's barley, 14% of wheat and 4% of corn, accounting for more than a third of global grain exports. "Given that the agricultural activities of these two main grain commodity exporting countries may be forced to be interrupted, under the condition that the international food and agricultural materials prices are already high and volatile, it may seriously exacerbate the global food insecurity." Qu Dongyu, director general of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, said earlier. At present, the impact of the situation in Ukraine on the international food market has emerged. The report released by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on April 8 showed that the impact of the crisis in Ukraine spread throughout the main grain and vegetable oil markets, leading to a sharp jump in world food commodity prices to an all-time high in March. Among them, the world wheat price soared by 19.7%. In addition, the price of corn increased by 19.1% month on month, hitting a record high together with the prices of barley and sorghum. Will the international food crisis affect domestic food security? "As China's grain imports exist, international grain prices will be transmitted to China, so China's grain prices are also rising as a whole. But it will not lead to a food crisis." Li Guoxiang said. In Li Guoxiang's view, once China's grain prices rise significantly, the government will increase regulation and increase subsidies for vulnerable groups, so as to alleviate the adverse impact of rising prices. "No matter how the international situation changes, we have the ability to ensure that the 1.4 billion Chinese people eat at point every day without hunger, and that their jobs can be more and more stable and eat better and better." Tang Renjian, Minister of agriculture and rural areas, said this at the national two sessions this year. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Ecns.cn

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