At the juncture of almost stepping into the "6.2 era", the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has recovered "a foot in the door", and there has been a certain correction since early March. Last week, as the US dollar index further approached the 100 mark, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to adjust and gradually moved away from the line of 6.3 yuan. Foreign exchange analysts pointed out that the current differences in economic and policy trends between China and foreign countries have gradually increased the resistance to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. After several months of "upwind", the RMB exchange rate may moderately return to the fundamentals and policies, but thanks to the strong demand for export settlement of foreign exchange and the consolidation of policies, economic growth and other factors, there is less risk of significant depreciation during the year. The flexibility of the two-way floating of the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to increase, which can also escort the countercyclical regulation of macro policies. Take back the "foot on the door" Starting from the front line of 6.37 yuan, it has launched two rounds of offensive, approaching the 6.3 yuan pass step by step... Since the beginning of the year, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise. On March 1, the maximum exchange rates of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.3048 yuan and 6.3071 yuan respectively, just one step away from returning to the "6.2 era". "From nearly falling below 7.2 yuan a year ago to now approaching 6.2 yuan again, if the RMB exchange rate crosses 6.30 yuan, it will leave another key coordinate in the rebound." A market person said. But this step did not step out, and the RMB exchange rate then began to callback. Last week, the RMB exchange rate continued to adjust and gradually moved away from the line of 6.3 yuan. Especially last Friday, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed a more obvious correction. In this process, the impact of US dollar exchange rate fluctuations is reflected. Last week, the US dollar index approached the 100 mark, putting great pressure on non US currencies. Among them, the US dollar index rose 0.62% last Friday. It is worth mentioning that when it comes to the performance of the RMB exchange rate since the beginning of the year, many institutions use expressions similar to "upwind" and "appreciation against the trend". The subtext is the strength of the RMB exchange rate, which exceeds or deviates from the changes of the situation to some extent. A frequently mentioned phenomenon is "the US dollar is stronger and the RMB is stronger". In 2022, the US dollar index rose by more than 3% and most non US currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The RMB is an exception. It continues to appreciate against the US dollar and has repeatedly hit new highs for many years, which has pushed the RMB exchange rate index to a new record. However, some market observers believe that some factors supporting the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the early stage have changed. For example, Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, mentioned that the peak of foreign exchange settlement and sales at the beginning of the year has passed, and the interest rate gap between China and foreign countries has narrowed significantly. Other research points out that the support formed by export foreign exchange settlement and capital inflow in the securities market tends to weaken in the future. These may mean that the momentum of RMB exchange rate appreciation is weakening, which deviates from the recent trend. After the failure of trying to break through 6.3 yuan, whether the RMB exchange rate continues to "rise against the trend" or "return journey" has attracted a lot of attention. "Counter trend upward" resistance increases The RMB exchange rate is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. In the view of insiders, the current US dollar tends to strengthen and the different economic and policy trends at home and abroad are difficult to support the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and the resistance of "going against the trend" may increase. The working conference on the self-discipline mechanism of the national foreign exchange market held in the fourth quarter of last year once suggested that there are many factors affecting the exchange rate. In the future, the RMB exchange rate may appreciate or depreciate. Two way fluctuations are the norm, reasonable balance is the goal, and the degree of deviation is directly proportional to the correction force. Specifically, according to expert analysis, the factors that may lead to the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate include: the narrowing of the difference between China and the United States in economic growth, the policy shift of the Federal Reserve, the strengthening of the US dollar, the slowdown of China's export growth, etc. Now, some factors are emerging. At present, the inflationary pressure in the United States continues to increase, prompting the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace of policy adjustment. It is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate hikes this week and may maintain a faster pace of interest rate hikes in the first half of the year, which may push the US dollar interest rate and exchange rate higher, and then affect global cross-border capital flows. Recently, the US dollar index is approaching 100, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds has exceeded 2%, and signs of capital returning to the United States have also begun to appear. At the same time, China's economy is resisting the "triple pressure". The recent epidemic and geopolitical events have made the situation more complex. Macro policies focus on "stable growth". The monetary environment may be further relaxed, the interest margin between China and foreign countries will be narrowed accordingly, and the inflow of foreign capital will slow down. In this context, the demand for foreign exchange settlement formed by exports alone may be difficult to support the continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. "At present, the RMB exchange rate needs to return to fundamentals and policies appropriately." Some observers believe that if the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, the correction force will increase. The release of exchange rate flexibility is at the right time Will the RMB exchange rate turn to sharp depreciation within this year? In the view of insiders, the RMB exchange rate may release flexibility in the direction of depreciation in the future, but the macro-control of steady growth will consolidate the foundation of stable RMB exchange rate, so there is no need to worry about sharp depreciation. While prompting the pressure of exchange rate adjustment, many experts recently pointed out that the risk of sharp depreciation of RMB exchange rate during the year is small. There are three reasons. First, export resilience is still sufficient, and balance of payments factors will continue to provide stable support for the RMB exchange rate. Zhong Zhengsheng said that although the seasonal peak of foreign exchange settlement has passed, the foreign exchange inflows accumulated since 2020 continue to play a role. In addition, the macro research team of Haitong Securities believes that the abundant US dollar liquidity accumulated in the first two years can smooth the fluctuation of the exchange rate, and it is difficult for the RMB exchange rate to "fall sharply" in the future. Second, the upward space of the US dollar index may not be large. According to expert analysis, in this round of Fed monetary policy tightening cycle, the economic growth difference and monetary policy difference between the United States and non US economies are less than that in the last round of tightening cycle, which is expected to limit the appreciation space of the US dollar. Third, the steady growth policy will consolidate the stability and sustainability of China's economic recovery, so as to enhance the fundamental basis for the stability of the RMB exchange rate. In the long run, the exchange rate trend is mainly determined by fundamental factors. The long-term positive trend of China's economy has not changed, which determines that there is no basis for substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In addition, some market participants mentioned that the previous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the trend has accumulated a certain buffer space for the subsequent response to the adjustment risk. Most market views believe that the subsequent RMB exchange rate may face a certain adjustment, but it will not turn to unilateral devaluation, and there is a high probability of two-way wide fluctuation. Experts believe that exchange rate flexibility should be strengthened in due time, and the functions of exchange rate regulation, macroeconomic regulation and automatic balance of payments stabilizer should be brought into play. (Xinhua News Agency)