Blocked listing, sluggish growth in the number of users, financial pressure and unclear industry prospects... As anxious traffickers, the knowledge payment industry is now more anxious. Stacking, handling and abbreviations - this is what the current knowledge paying masters do. After a long time in the knowledge payment industry, a basic conclusion is that the cognition of big coffee is not much higher than you. The important thing is that they are more diligent and hardworking than you. Therefore, traffickers may be more anxious themselves. This is why the team preparing the New Year speech must be closed for several weeks. This is just like the sprint before the college entrance examination. We must recharge ourselves. When the overall knowledge payment industry encountered a bottleneck, the membership renewal rate continued to slow down, and the MLM model of Fandeng book club was almost unable to play, he could still hold a New Year speech for several years, so he had to admire Luo Zhenyu's diligence and persistence. To the anxiety of the team, the New Year speech announced on December 28 that the audience entry was cancelled and the emergency ticket refund procedure was started. Luo Pang will not only face 12000 empty seats, but also lose tens of millions of ticket revenue. As an anxious trafficker, Luo Zhenyu has to carry far more than this layer of anxiety, because he has obtained the thinking creation of the parent company and is submitting the listing application of a shares. The waiting process is currently "suspended". This friend of time, probably more, is an anxious friend. Listing anxiety of thinking creation IPO is like a magic door, attracting countless entrepreneurs to knock one after another. In the knowledge payment industry, Zhihu has been successful, and training companies such as venture dark horse have also successfully logged in a shares. There is no reason for thinking creation not to worry. Zhi Hu (zh. US) provides a imagination model for knowledge paying players who want to hand in hand with the capital market, but what worries Luo Pang is that as of Lu Jiu finance's press time, the IPO efforts of thinking creation were still blocked from the word "suspension". In addition to the different choices of listing places, the business logic behind the listing is also different. In March this year, Lu Jiu finance and economics wrote an article, "after the IPO, do you laugh or cry when you get Luo Zhenyu?" Zhou Yuan, who looks like a programmer, may be more like an idealized intellectual, while Luo Zhenyu, who looks like an intellectual, is more like an out and out businessman Zhihu aims at the "content community" business, and the emotional connection between users is closer. At the other end of the track, the content platform is cultivated. Xi Xiang, who has worked in, said Luo Zhenyu hopes to achieve his goal by providing table talk capital for the emerging middle class. The class transition of the new middle class has not only brought more complex game environment, but also stimulated their upward motivation. Anxiety and desire go hand in hand. Seizing these consumers - more accurately, "seizing their anxiety" - means seizing opportunities. Xi Qixiang summarized the obtained method as "Internet publishers" - attracting head IP to stay on their own platform, skipping advertisers, and then calling on readers to read against these personal brands. If we enlarge the definition of "publishing" and are no longer limited to words, all video and audio platforms have the trend of actively looking for and even cultivating IP with their own traffic. It is worth noting that consumers follow the preacher's personal IP. When the preacher leaves, the independent value of the app will be weakened. Himalaya, Fandeng reading club and even more vertical cultural brands "see ideal" are suspected of collision. By comparison, it seems difficult to label them as "more futuristic". From the perspective of listing progress, there is also a gap between acquisition and knowledge. In contrast, Zhihu's commercialization ability is weaker, but it landed in the secondary market earlier, which may also reveal the tendency of capital. Smart money is more optimistic about communities with high adhesion, and is cautious in the face of a simple content distribution platform. From the financial data, compared with the knowledge of the continuous growth of net loss, the data obtained is a little better. According to the published prospectus, since 2017, the net profit of thinking creation has always been positive and basically maintained growth. The net profits recorded in 2017 and 2018 were 61.31 million yuan and 47.64 million yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2019 exceeded 100 million yuan to 117 million yuan. However, get also faces its own problems: without high-frequency and high-quality user interaction, the potential consumer groups that can be reached are significantly less than those known. In the same sentence, under the premise of initial business format, capital is not worried about burning money, but more worried about where to burn money. According to the third quarter financial report, the majority of Zhihu's expenditure comes from operating expenses. The expenses of promotion and user innovation pull Zhihu's profits. The Mau that exceeded 100 million for the first time proves that Zhihu's spending is reasonable. After choosing the right direction, it only needs time to verify. In the knowledge paying track, another opponent that needs to be respected is the Himalayas. In September this year, Himalaya submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong stock exchange. The prospectus shows that Himalaya's monthly live users and payment rate have increased for three consecutive years. The proportion of revenue from user subscription in total revenue has increased from 43.8% in 2018 to 54.6% in the first half of this year. At the same time, the proportion of revenue from advertising business has decreased from 28.3% to 24.5%, This not only proves the Himalayan's ability to produce high-quality content, but also gives it the strength to resist risks. As of June 30, 2021, the average monthly active users in Himalaya are 262 million, and the total use time of mobile users is 847.8 billion minutes, accounting for about 70.9% of the total listening time of mobile users on all online audio platforms in China. On the contrary, the latest data in the prospectus shows that its monthly life is still at the level of one million, and the growth rate of the number of paying users has slowed down. In the first quarter of 2018, 2019 and 2020, the number of newly paid households was 1649100, 911000 and 826100 respectively. When the scale of active users is small, the reduction of users' willingness to pay is very easy to restrict the platform. Once a vicious circle is formed, it will be more difficult to make changes. Obviously, from the perspective of user base, the foundation obtained is still very weak, which has become another anxiety Luo Zhenyu has to face. Industry weakness of knowledge payment In the knowledge payment industry, well-known enterprises not only get and know, but also Wu Xiaobo channel and fan Deng reading are often mentioned, especially in the high-income class. In the prospectus obtained, the above-mentioned enterprises are clearly analyzed in the position of competitors, but in fact, the differences between several enterprises are reflected in their names. For Hangzhou bajiuling (parent company of Wu Xiaobo channel) and soybean network (parent company of fan Deng reading), it is difficult to ignore the appeal of Wu Xiaobo and fan Deng to upstream investors and downstream consumers. In March 2019, Wu Xiaobo tried to pass all-round education (300359. SZ) acquired 96% equity of bajiuling company to realize curve listing, and then obtained the inquiry letter from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, questioning that the enterprise restructuring is suspected of "personal IP securitization" by Wu Xiaobo. In response to this, QUANTONG Education issued a reply letter with a length of more than 100 pages to answer the questions of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and announced the restructuring progress announcement six times around 2019. Meanwhile, Ba nine Ling also tried to eliminate Wu Xiaobo's personal IP's mark in the company, such as renaming the official account "Wu Xiaobo channel" to "890 new business studies", but the process of restructuring and listing was finally ended in failure. In June 2020, Ba Jiuling launched an independent IPO. According to the guidance filing publicity document of Hangzhou Ba Jiuling culture and creativity Co., Ltd. released on the official website of Zhejiang regulatory bureau, Ba Jiuling's listing guidance institution is Shenwan Hongyuan underwriting and recommendation company, and the guidance period is roughly from June to December 2020. On February 26 this year, according to media news, Ba Jiuling has completed the third phase of IPO listing guidance, and the guidance agency is still the underwriting sponsor of Shenwan Hongyuan, and the listing progress has not been updated since then. According to the official account announcement, Ba nine Ling mainly made profits through the "Wu Xiaobo channel" public number and Himalaya mobile phone, and mobile phone carrier such as MI and Wu Xiaobo. It is self-evident that IP's personal brand and consumer reputation are helpful. Many professionals pointed out that Ba Jiuling's move is a success IP and failure IP. The core figure centered playing method of the enterprise certainly has the advantage of facilitating the accumulation of original capital in the early stage of entrepreneurship, but it often leads to the suspicion of the capital market because the two are too closely linked. Song Qinghui, a famous economist, pointed out in his column that for companies that rely on personal IP for development and revenue, the impact of personal IP is fatal. At present, Ba Jiuling has realized the need for "de Wu Xiaobo" measures, but from the introduction of its main business given in its publicity, it is difficult to give a reliable growth point other than Wu Xiaobo for a time. This problem also appeared in fan Deng's study. It is understood that the development of fan dengshu since 2021 is not good due to the impact of the epidemic and the decline of consumers' willingness to support. In October this year, when fan Deng was interviewed by the media and asked questions related to personal IP, fan Deng responded to the question of "anxiety": "we are taking the route of normal IP, but what you are worried about or worried about is why there is no second IP." Taking JK Rowling and Jackie Chan as examples, he believes that it is not necessary to break the barriers of personal IP, but to enjoy the process and convey values. As fan Deng said, we have different goals, and there are differences in recognition and demand for the commercialization path. When entrepreneurs pay more attention to doing well in front of them, some problems may not be problems. However, for Wu Xiaobo, whose goal is the sea of stars, the key man risk is too high, which must be overcome. This level also lies in front of those who have moved towards large V-drive payment. According to the prospectus of thinking creation, the names of course lecturers appeared in the top five suppliers of the company in 2017, 2018 and 2019. The highest ranked lecturer once signed a contract with thinking creation as the second largest supplier. In 2017, Xue Zhaofeng, an economics lecturer who was just popular, took 4.27% of the total procurement of thinking creation. By providing audio courses and related derivatives for the official platform, Xue Zhaofeng attracted more than 16.15 million yuan. Knowledge paid track, often the entry threshold is particularly low, and there is no standard, no official certification, anyone can do it. In addition, the cost of paying knowledge creators is very high, such as Liu run. Users (payers) have no identification ability. They only have the renewal rate. Therefore, the whole industry is very anxious. The platform has got rid of Luo Zhenyu's personal IP, but can big V who can contribute high quality emerge in a steady stream and make users pay continuously? To a certain extent, knowledge payment can be regarded as a service industry and training industry. The content production services provided by the platform must be stable to the satisfaction of users for a long time in order to maintain the renewal rate. This is a personal problem that makes Luo Pang anxious, and it is also the weakness of the knowledge paying track industry. Knowledge payment, where to go in the future? Another problem that makes people more anxious is the decline in net profit growth, which has shown dangerous signals. According to the information disclosed in the prospectus, the profitability of thinking creation fluctuated greatly. The net profits after deduction in 2017, 2018 and 2019 were 49 million yuan, 32.8 million yuan and 30.67 million yuan respectively, falling for two consecutive years. In 2020, the weighted average return on net assets also fell sharply, and the net profit attributable to the parent and non deduction