As a typical trillion track, major changes in the catering industry can always attract the attention of the market. In the past two years, although dragged down by the epidemic, a major change in the catering industry still attracted great attention from the capital market, which is the rise of the prefabricated vegetable track. As the "central kitchen" of the catering industry, the rise of prefabricated dishes is the inevitable trend of differentiation and refinement of the catering industry. With the increasingly complete cold chain logistics, large chain catering groups have established central kitchens to uniformly produce and distribute cold chain, so as to ensure the standardization and convenience of meals in each store; At the same time, a large number of processing enterprises focusing on specific semi-finished dishes are also rising, which has attracted more and more attention from capital. Especially after the epidemic, the integration of prefabricated dishes and C-end "lazy economy" has created a wave of sense of existence on the e-commerce platform. The question is, how to find the contestants with the "appearance of the king" when the tuyere begins to rise and the heroes compete for the deer? B-end prefabricated dishes rise in the wind Driven by multiple factors such as urbanization, consumption upgrading and the rise of takeout, the market scale of China's catering industry has increased steadily in recent years. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, from 2012 to 2019, China's catering revenue increased from 2.33 trillion yuan to 4.67 trillion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of 10.44%, significantly higher than the GDP growth rate. With the rapid expansion of market scale, the demand for semi-finished and finished dishes in the catering industry has increased rapidly from the perspective of saving cost, stabilizing quality and improving efficiency, and the prefabricated dish track has taken advantage of the wind. Prefabricated dishes refer to finished or semi-finished dishes that have been washed, cut and matched. The manufacturer processes the dishes in advance through the central kitchen, and then packs and stores them in a series of ways such as freezing or vacuum, or sells them through the C-end channel, or distributes them to the b-end restaurant. At this stage, the structure of b-end and C-end is about 8:2, mainly b-end. As far as the C-end is concerned, the prepared dishes are more delicious than DIY and more convenient than dining out. They are the cost-effective choice of "the most convenient among delicious and the best among convenient", and are favored by consumers; In terms of end B, compared with self-made dishes, prefabricated dishes can realize the standardization of dishes, save labor costs and rental costs for catering enterprises, reduce the cost of raw materials through large-scale procurement, and effectively alleviate the problem of "four high and one low" (high food materials, high labor, high rent, high energy consumption and low profit) in the catering industry. The explosive growth of takeout has significantly amplified the advantages of fast delivery of prefabricated dishes. In a broad sense, prefabricated dishes include ready to eat foods (such as all kinds of canned, ham sausage and other open bag ready to eat foods), instant hot foods (such as instant noodles, quick-frozen dumplings, self heating rice, flavor grilled fish, etc.), instant cooked foods (semi-finished products requiring secondary cooking processing), instant prepared foods (semi-finished products after cleaning, cutting and other preliminary processing), However, from the perspective of consumption upgrading, normal temperature ready to eat food containing food additives is not a Chaoyang track. Therefore, from the perspective of investment, we mainly focus on the latter three types of prefabricated dishes, mostly in the form of quick-frozen food (conversely, not all quick-frozen foods are considered prefabricated dishes). According to the national standard, the temperature standard of quick-frozen food is - 18 ℃, which is transported in the whole cold chain from the factory to the dining table. It does not need preservatives, and can retain the flavor of food materials to the greatest extent, which is in line with the trend of healthy diet and Chinese food consumption. According to the data of the research department of CICC, the compound growth rate of China's quick-frozen food revenue from 2010 to 2020 was 13.8%, surpassing other food and beverage sub industries. According to the data of AI media network, in 2019, the per capita consumption of frozen food in the United States was 60 kg, 35 kg in Europe, 20 kg in Japan and only 9 kg in China, which still has great development potential. The rise of prefabricated food track caters to the trend of detailed division of labor in the catering industry and helps catering enterprises focus their resources on more efficient fields such as dish development, restaurant operation and service improvement. According to the data of China frozen and refrigerated food professional committee, in 2020, the income of China's Prefabricated food industry was 31.381 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the quick-frozen food industry. The per capita consumption is at the level of Japan in 1970, and the future prospect is broad. At present, the market concentration in the field of domestic prefabricated dishes is low, the competition pattern is scattered, and there is a lack of national leaders. There are already prefabricated vegetable enterprises focusing on the track, such as flavor, true taste, good taste, etc; There are also product line extensions of quick-frozen food enterprises, such as Anjing food (mainly quick-frozen surimi and meat products), Sanquan food (mainly quick-frozen rice flour products), LIGO food (mainly quick-frozen baked semi-finished products), Haixin food (mainly quick-frozen surimi), Huifa food (mainly quick-frozen pill products), Qianwei central kitchen (mainly quick-frozen rice flour products); At the same time, golden dragon fish, Wen's shares, Shengnong development, Longda meat, Guolian aquatic products, Yihai international, Xibei, Guangzhou Restaurant, 711 and convenient bee also enter the field of prefabricated dishes along the supply chain. At the beginning of tuyere, look for the future "King" At present, the domestic prefabricated vegetable track is not only in the early stage of rapid development, but also in a period of fierce competition. Due to the wide variety of Chinese dishes, complex procedures and high difficulty in standardization of most dishes, there are limited single products suitable for prefabricated dishes and with high market acceptance at this stage, mainly concentrated in a few fields such as rice noodles, hot pot barbecue, powder wrapping, water cooking and conditioning. The entry threshold of these fields is low, and there is a lack of dominant leaders in the market, As a result, a large number of new start-ups have joined the war. Therefore, at this stage, continuous cost optimization + continuous expansion of sales channels has become the main theme of industry competition. At this stage, the winning enterprises, with the advantages of b-end and C-end, are expected to continue to maintain their competitive advantage. It should be noted that there are many kinds of Chinese dishes, and residents have diverse tastes. There is also an optimal distance boundary between raw materials and cold chain transportation, so it is impossible for one company to dominate the field of prefabricated dishes. In a long period of time in the future, enterprises will still compete for the leading position in the subdivided field. In the coming period, the b-end catering market will still be the main track for prefabricated vegetable enterprises to compete. The concentration of China's catering industry is low (in 2017, the top 100 catering industry accounted for only 7% and chain catering accounted for only 1%), and small and medium-sized catering merchants with single store or a small number of chain operations dominate the market. According to the data of China Hotel Association, the average life span of catering stores in China is only about 500 days. In the face of huge survival pressure, small and medium-sized catering institutions must pay more attention to the cost performance of food materials. For prefabricated vegetable enterprises, only when the cost is optimal and the channel network is fully covered, can they take the initiative in the competition. In terms of the prefabricated vegetable industry chain, the upstream is rice noodles, livestock and poultry, aquatic products, bean products, root and fruit vegetables and other products, and the prefabricated vegetable enterprises are the recipients of prices; In the downstream, for large chain catering groups, emerging prefabricated vegetable enterprises are in the position of Party B, while small and medium-sized catering institutions only look at the cost performance, corresponding to low-quality and low-cost prefabricated vegetable manufacturers that only focus on cost and lack development potential. Therefore, from the perspective of division of labor in the industrial chain, prefabricated vegetable enterprises lack negotiation advantages, and their living space is vulnerable to two-way repression from the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. If they can not make in-depth extension in the industrial chain, it will be difficult to develop and grow. This is also true from international experience. Sysco, the leader of prefabricated vegetables in the United States, continues to expand its categories through mergers and acquisitions, and continues to extend to the field of upstream food materials. At the same time, it reduces distribution costs and ensures food safety by building its own logistics system. At present, its marketing and logistics network covers more than 90 countries around the world, with an annual revenue of more than 60 billion US dollars; Kobe products, the leader of prefabricated vegetables in Japan, implements the integrated production and marketing model, which takes a shoulder from the production / import of agricultural products to food processing, circulation and sales, comprehensively reduces costs and improves comprehensive competitiveness. At present, nearly 1000 terminal sales stores have been arranged in Japan. As far as the domestic prefabricated vegetable track is concerned, at present, many parties have entered the market, and the market is still in the tuyere period. It is relatively easy for enterprises to find surviving market segments, and it has not yet reached the stage of competing for comprehensive strength. However, what investors are looking for is the future industry leader, and they must select the investment target from the perspective of comprehensive strength. From this perspective, prefabricated food production and brand building are only admission tickets. If enterprises want to improve the winning rate, the supply chain capability is the king. That is, it either has an unshakable cost advantage in the upstream food link, or establishes an overall leading advantage in logistics and channels. According to this standard, smaller new entrants can be excluded, and the traditional leader of cross-border entry has more imagination. Representative enterprise: Guolian aquatic products Founded in 2001, Guolian aquatic products was listed on the A-share market in 2010. Its product line mainly focuses on the processing of Penaeus vannamei, supplemented by crayfish, tilapia and sea bass. It is not only the largest shrimp processing and sales enterprise in China, but also the largest listed Aquatic company on the A-share market. The company's early business mainly focused on shrimp export. Around 2014, the company proposed to be a global seafood supply platform, introduce overseas high-quality aquatic resources for domestic sales, and began to shift from "going out" to "bringing in". However, until 2017, the company's overseas market revenue accounted for more than 70%, mainly in the U.S. market. After 2018, after the trade friction and the subsequent COVID-19 influence, the export business of the company was greatly hindered. For example, according to the company announcement, after the US import 10% tariff was implemented in September 2018, most of the primary processing products of the company were lost; after May 2019 the 25% tariff was implemented, the impact continued to enlarge, and there was a large loss in 2019 and 2020. In turn, it has accelerated the company's transformation to domestic business. In 2020, the proportion of international business revenue has decreased to about 45%. At present, the company's product lines mainly fall into three categories: global seafood selection series, such as Argentine red shrimp, Saudi shrimp, black tiger shrimp, Arctic sweet shrimp, COD, Emperor crab, etc; Primary processing, such as raw and cooked shrimp, raw and cooked shrimp, fish fillets, crayfish meat; Prefabricated dishes series, mainly including boiled, flour wrapped, rice noodles, conditioning, hot pot barbecue and other series. In 2020, the company's income from prefabricated vegetables was about 730 million yuan, accounting for 16.24% of its revenue. Although the proportion is not high, from the perspective of development focus, the company is trying to get rid of the positioning of primary processing of aquatic products and transform to catering ingredients and marine food dominated by prefabricated dishes. After the successful transformation, the company's gross profit margin is expected to rise significantly, driving the inflection point change of the company's investment logic. At present, there are many participants and fierce competition in the prefabricated vegetable track. The rapid rise of Guolian aquatic products is closely related to its 20-year experience in the aquatic products industry. On the one hand, the company's Prefabricated dishes are mainly shrimp, crayfish, tilapia and other food materials, and the cost of food materials accounts for more than 90% of the production cost. As the largest shrimp processing and sales enterprise in China, the company has unique advantages in controlling the cost of food materials; On the other hand, shrimp and other aquatic products have strong seasonality. The company's global procurement advantage helps to smooth the seasonal fluctuations, ensure the stable supply of materials, and be more competitive in expanding large b-end catering enterprises. At this stage, the company's products are mainly direct selling, mainly focusing on b-end catering institutions, and the revenue of b-end accounts for more than 60%; At the C-end, it is mainly connected to large supermarkets and e-commerce platforms in the form of direct marketing. Everything is still at the beginning, and the future is unknown. Since the beginning of the tuyere, it is very difficult to bet who has the "appearance of the king". The better choice for investors is to find enough margin of safety in the purchase price, as long as the purchase price is cheap enough