Russian anti satellite test, game upgrade with the United States

2021-11-24

According to Russian media reports, on November 15, Russia destroyed a satellite to be scrapped and completed an anti satellite missile firing test. At the same time, the US State Department, the US space command and the US Aeronautics and space administration have successively voiced their accusations that the space debris caused by Russia's move may endanger the international space station and man-made satellites. The destruction and competition for satellite resources will become an important aspect of future space operations. The picture shows satellite data Russia destroys satellite According to Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, what participated in the test was Russia's latest anti satellite missile system "jewelry", which accurately hit the electronic reconnaissance satellite "universe" - 1408, which has been in orbit for nearly 40 years and has been unable to work. As the target of Russia's anti satellite weapon test, the satellite has completed its historical mission. Shoigu stressed that the test did not pose a threat to space objects such as the international space station, and the space debris generated were monitored by Russia's outer space monitoring system. However, Bill Nelson, director of NASA, said that after hitting the target, the anti satellite missile produced more than 1500 pieces of monitored debris and tens of thousands of small debris that could not be monitored, forcing seven astronauts of the international space station from the United States, Russia and Germany to avoid in the space station's spacecraft for two hours. Behind Russia's anti satellite activities The direct ascent anti satellite technology used in this test is a long-range missile in a popular sense. It is more cost-effective than the most advanced technology using directional energy to attack satellites from a long distance. Russia's anti satellite weapon test not only tests the performance of new weapons, but also has its strategic considerations. First, enhance the ability to seize the power of heaven. Space domination is an important prerequisite for major powers to win future wars. In the future war, the smooth implementation of actions relying on military satellites, including situational awareness, mobile navigation and long-range reconnaissance, largely depends on whether they can seize the power of space control. The development and testing of anti satellite weapons has become one of the important aspects for the Russian army to improve its space control capability. The second is to carry out "asymmetric" deterrence against the United States and other western countries. Recently, the United States and other western countries have stepped up pressure on Russia's containment. Among them, the US Navy issued the "vision 2030-2035 for naval aviation", deliberately exaggerating the threat of advanced weapons from Russia and other countries, and emphasizing the need to strengthen military deployment in key regions such as the Asia Pacific, Europe and the Middle East. European NATO countries are trying to set up a 5000 strong rapid reaction force against Russia. NATO tried to establish naval bases in Romania and Bulgaria to strengthen strategic forward deployment and reduce Russia's strategic space in the Black Sea. In this context, Russia attempts to launch anti satellite missiles as one of the "asymmetric" deterrence measures, cooperate with Ji'an to organize large-scale exercises and open the new nuclear submarine loading plan, so as to form an effective strategic counteraction against the United States and other western countries. Third, increase the chips in arms control negotiations with the United States. As a nuclear power, Russia and the United States have long restricted the development and deployment of strategic weapons within the framework of arms control treaties, including the China missile defense treaty and the new strategic arms reduction treaty. In 2019, after the expiration of the US Russian "China missile defense treaty", the new strategic arms reduction treaty became the only remaining arms control treaty between the two sides. Although the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty can be extended for five years and is valid until February 5, 2026, in the long run, the renewal of the treaty is only a strategic compromise between the two sides. In the future, the two sides will continue to play a game in the next round of treaty negotiations focusing on the expansion and reduction of strategic arms. Therefore, Russia is trying to accelerate the development and testing of various anti satellite weapons in order to increase the bargaining chips. Russian American space non weaponization game After Russia's anti satellite test, the United States immediately monitored space debris and attacked Russia's move. This is an epitome of the Russian US space non weaponization game. The non weaponization of space, also known as the non weaponization of outer space, is an extended concept based on the militarization of space. According to the Treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force against outer space objects (Draft), which was jointly submitted by China and Russia to the conference on Disarmament in Geneva (hereinafter referred to as the "conference"), space non weaponization refers to the prohibition of the installation of weapons in space and the use of force or threat of force against space objects. Since the cold war, more and more satellites serving military purposes have been stationed in space orbit, but they are mainly used for military support, not to mention the weaponization of space. However, since the United States began to develop X-37B aerospace aircraft, anti satellite weapons and space-based anti missile systems in the 21st century, and established a space army, its attempt to weaponize space has become more and more prominent. Therefore, considering the strategic game between Russia and the United States and the peaceful development of space, the senior level of the Russian government believes that it is urgent to promote the non weaponization of space. It can be said that Russia has always been a firm promoter of the non weaponization of space. In June 2002, Russia submitted to the conference on Disarmament a working paper entitled "international treaty on the prevention of the deployment of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force against outer space objects (Draft)". In 2008, Russia and China jointly proposed the Treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space and the threat or use of force against outer space objects (Draft) to the CD, and again jointly submitted an updated version of the treaty to the CD in June 2014. However, the above documents were opposed by the United States and failed to form international consensus and norms. The United States attempts to rely on its military technological advantages in space to form a technological generation gap with other countries in order to support its global interests. As the most active country in the militarization and weaponization of space and the largest producer of space debris, the United States has repeatedly blocked the signing of the space non weaponization treaty. On the whole, Russia's anti satellite weapon test may bring the United States back to the negotiating table to promote the Russian US space strategic balance. (outlook new era)

Edit:Luo yu    Responsible editor:Wang xiao jing

Source:China National Defense News

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