The central bank report conveys the tone of "stability" of monetary policy and maintains reasonable and abundant liquidity

2021-11-22

The people's Bank of China recently issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy in the third quarter of 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report points out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, focus on me, take stability as the head, grasp the strength and rhythm of policies, handle the relationship between economic development and risk prevention, make cross cycle adjustment, maintain the overall stability of the economy and enhance the resilience of economic development. As a report with the meaning of "wind vane", the monetary policy implementation report has always attracted the attention of the market. The report points out that we should improve the money supply regulation mechanism, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, keep the growth of money supply and social financing scale basically match the economic growth, and maintain the basic stability of macro leverage ratio. Closely follow, study and judge the price trend, stabilize social expectations and maintain the overall stability of price level. Compared with the monetary policy implementation report of the previous quarter, there are no words of "managing the general monetary gate" and "insisting on not flooding". In this regard, Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, told the economic information daily that this does not mean that monetary policy should change from stable to loose, or even comprehensive easing. He said that since the beginning of this year, the monetary policy has always been "stable", which has never changed. What has changed is only market expectations. Zhang Xu said that the probability of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in the next stage is very limited. He also said that the RRR reduction has been given too much symbolic significance by some investors. In fact, the RRR reduction, like open market operation and MLF (medium-term lending convenience), is a tool for the central bank to regulate the liquidity of the banking system. Its purpose is to guide the market interest rate to fluctuate around the policy interest rate, which is not fundamentally different. It is worth noting that the monetary policies of major developed economies have begun to adjust recently. Since June this year, the signal of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy has gradually become clear, and the European Central Bank has also reported that it will slow down the rate of bond purchase. The report clearly released the signal that China's monetary policy "focuses on itself and enhances autonomy". The column of the report entitled "monetary policy adjustment and response of developed economies" points out that the current internal and external environment faced by China is significantly different from that of the previous round, and the policy adjustment of developed economies has limited impact on China. The cross cycle design of China's monetary policy can more effectively deal with the external impact brought by the monetary policy adjustment of developed economies. "Compared with the sharp rise in the yield of US Treasury bonds in the early stage, the yield of China's 10-year Treasury bonds is still at a low level, and the fluctuation is much smaller. This is the embodiment of the stable operation of China's financial market and the reflection of China's policy autonomy. Under the international background of the policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of China will still strive to maintain the stable operation of the financial market including the Treasury bond market , China's treasury bond yield will not follow the US Treasury bond yield upward, "Zhang Xu said. (outlook new era)

Edit:Ming Wu    Responsible editor:Haoxuan Qi

Source:jjckb.cn

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