In September this year, the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of a security alliance. The United States and Britain promised to provide Australia with nuclear submarine technology and help it form a nuclear submarine formation. The trilateral relationship between the United States, Australia and France was cold after Australia cancelled its huge submarine order with France. Recently, the United States and Australia have tried to restore relations with France in various ways. While making a cautious statement, France is trying to build a new alliance in the Asia Pacific region. The analysis shows that the obviously cracked relationship between the United States, France, Australia and France is difficult to repair in the short term, and the wishful thinking of "holding together for warmth" of relevant countries may not succeed. Effect drawing of short fin Barracuda class submarine designed by France for Australia The United States and Australia demolish each other After the "submarine crisis", the high-level leaders of the United States and Australia held talks with French leaders on diplomatic occasions, and sought French understanding by blaming each other and throwing away burdens. On the one hand, the US side took the initiative. The United States recently repaired relations with France through various channels. First, telephone communication. On October 22, US President Biden talked to French President macron to try to solve the problem of the breakdown of bilateral relations. According to the statement issued by the White House, the two sides discussed the topic of maintaining stability and counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel region of Africa. At the same time, the two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in the Asia Pacific region and strengthen European defense. Second, special envoy consultation. According to the British guardian, Secretary of state Blinken and many senior diplomats went to France recently, hoping to repair the trust crisis with France and urge the UK to do the same. U.S. diplomats pointed out that it is indeed inappropriate for Australia to cancel its contract with France rashly. It should reserve a buffer period for France before announcing the establishment of a security alliance between Australia, Britain and the United States. Third, greetings from the summit. Biden held his first meeting with macron after the "submarine crisis" in Italy on October 29. During the meeting, Biden said that France is an important ally of the United States, and the handling of security cooperation between the United States and Australia and Britain is "not very appropriate". On the other hand, Australia is eager to shed its burden. Compared with the "orderly" restoration of relations between the United States and France, Australia seems a little "at a loss". The United States left the responsibility for the deterioration of relations to Australia, which was eager to "prove its innocence" and once again attracted the dissatisfaction of France. Australian media exposed a text message sent by macron to Australian Prime Minister Morrison on November 1, which showed that France did not know nothing before Australia cancelled the submarine contract. The French presidential palace said that Australia's practice of divulging the content of SMS undermines the trust between France and Australia. In addition, the Australian newspaper exposed a 15 page confidential document on November 2. The document is the communication schedule of officials from Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom on the nuclear submarine purchase contract, detailing when and what information will be released, and the time is accurate to hours. It is said that the contents of this document are recognized by officials of the three countries. The United States clearly knows when Australia will notify France to cancel the submarine contract. When asked about Morrison's handling of the "submarine crisis", Sullivan, assistant to the president for national security affairs, said that we should look forward, not backward. The Guardian reported that Australia has been trying to repair its relations with France, but the effect is not good. France makes a new start For the United States and Australia to take the initiative to repair their relations with themselves, France stated that it was relatively "calm" and accelerated the construction of its own alliance system. First, listen to what the United States says and watch what it does. Macron said that France's trust in the United States needs to be rebuilt by the United States through practical actions, not just at the verbal level. According to the joint communiqu é issued after the US French leaders' meeting, Biden and macron exchanged views on anti epidemic, defense, counter-terrorism, climate change and other issues. The two sides reiterated that they would strengthen bilateral and transatlantic cooperation, but did not form substantive and institutional results. Second, make harsh demands on Australia. According to the guardian and other media reports, macron recently had his first call with Morrison after the "submarine crisis". During the conversation, macron strongly criticized the Australian government. The French presidential palace issued a statement saying that macron told Morrison that the latter had damaged the trust between France and Australia, and now it was up to the Australian government to take "practical action" to repair bilateral relations. Macron also urged Australia to take strong measures on climate change. In addition, Morrison and macron jointly attended the G20 leaders' summit. They not only did not meet, but also rarely interacted. According to Australian Foreign Minister Payne, she made a request for a leaders' meeting with the French Foreign Minister a few weeks ago and "is still waiting for a response". Third, promote cooperation and build alliances with other countries. The French presidential palace recently issued a statement saying that macron met with Indonesian President Joko and Indian Prime Minister modi successively during the G20 leaders' summit. France and Indonesia have decided to establish a "true strategic partnership" in the Asia Pacific region. At the same time, France and India will hold a strategic dialogue to further promote the "India Pacific strategy". French media pointed out that after being humiliated by Australia's submarine orders, France has begun to build a "small triangular alliance" in the Asia Pacific region with India, Indonesia and other countries. Relationships are hard to turn around On the whole, the United States and Australia have recently lowered their attitude and intended to rebuild their friendship with France, mainly focusing on France's regional influence, trying to break the relationship barriers, speed up the progress of grouping, and build a strategic containment system for potential combat opponents. Based on its own national interests, France shows goodwill and indifference to the United States and Australia. At the same time, it starts a new stove and speeds up the shaping of a new pattern of alliance relations. Looking forward to the future, the US Australia France relationship faces many constraints, and the road to return to a close partner is very long. First of all, it may be difficult for the United States to win over. At the countdown of the Merkel era, France's leadership in the EU is more prominent, and the United States is bound to increase its efforts to win over Farah in the future. However, after Trump's period, France has become hostile to the NATO alliance system built by the United States. Macron has publicly said that NATO has "brain death". Novel coronavirus pneumonia is bound to be "affordable" or "profitable" for the sake of the economic and new crown pneumonia epidemic. Second, Australia's diplomatic dilemma may be difficult to solve. Australia tore up the submarine cooperation order with France this time, which has greatly damaged the military cooperation and strategic mutual trust between the two sides. France will hold a presidential election in 2022. Macron is bound to show a tough hand in handling relations with Australia in order to win more votes. If Australia cannot give France appropriate compensation, the short-term ice breaking of France Australia relations is bound to be "empty talk". Thirdly, the pace of European autonomy may accelerate. In recent years, European countries led by France are quite dissatisfied with the United States' destruction of the alliance system. The voices of European independence and defense independence are becoming louder and louder in the EU and NATO members. The United States formed a new security alliance with Britain and Australia, excluding France, Germany and other European countries, which attracted the dissatisfaction of European allies. Next, France, Germany and other countries may take advantage of the "beixi-2" natural gas pipeline project to further accelerate the pace of independence and reduce their dependence on the United States. (outlook new era)