2021 is the beginning of the 14th five year plan and the beginning of the new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. China's economic development situation has attracted much attention. The main data of China's economy in the first three quarters have been released recently. In the face of the complex and severe domestic and foreign environment, China's economy has generally maintained a recovery trend, the main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, and continues to "progress" towards high-quality development on the basis of overall "stability", laying a good foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals. However, at the same time, economic growth has fallen, commodity prices have risen, and power rationing in many parts of the country... The global epidemic trend and economic trend have become more complex. Some new situations and old problems are intertwined and superimposed, and the risks and challenges remain unabated. To observe China's economy, we should look at it from a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term perspective. Only in this way can we recognize the general trend in the short-term fluctuations, explore the deep driving force in the pressure and challenges, boost confidence in the bright spot toughness, and pool great strength for unswervingly promoting high-quality development. Xinhua News Agency reporters recently sorted out ten hot issues of social concern and concern at home and abroad, and interviewed authoritative departments and authoritative people to respond. （1） How to view the current economic trend and what is the potential strength of China's economy? Compared with the year-on-year growth of 9.8% in the first three quarters of this year and an average growth of 5.2% in the two years, the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter fell back to 4.9%. What do you think? The growth rate of 9.8% in the first three quarters is far higher than the annual growth target of "more than 6% set at the beginning of the year, and also higher than the global average growth rate and the growth rate of major economies. It is hard won and rare. It should be said that China's economy has maintained a sustained recovery since the second half of last year. However, compared with the economic growth rate of 18.3% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the second quarter of this year, the growth rate of "breaking 5" in the third quarter has attracted much attention and even caused some concerns. What are the reasons for the slowdown in quarterly growth? Cardinality effect is a major factor- 6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9% and 6.5%. The rising line drawn by China's economy in the four quarters of last year indicates that China's economic trend this year will be "high in the front and low in the back", and the slope is steep. Short term factors also have a certain impact. Since the second half of the year, the domestic epidemic has spread locally and in many places. Henan and Shanxi have been hit by rainstorms and floods. In addition, due to multiple factors such as the slowdown of global economic growth and the high price of bulk raw materials, the road to economic recovery has encountered difficulties. With abundant regulatory tools, it is impossible for the economy to grow faster - in the face of the challenge of economic downturn, the central government maintains its strategic determination, resolutely does not engage in "flood irrigation", takes measures such as continuously promoting green and low-carbon development and reducing dependence on real estate and debt, and releases the policy signal of not following the old path of extensive growth and firmly moving towards high-quality development. "The slowdown in growth in the third quarter is good for China's economy in the long run." Germany's Frankfurt report commented that if China does not experience these structural adjustments, its economic growth will be faster, but China's economy may not be on the right track. To observe the economic situation, we should look not only at the short term, but also at the long term and the overall situation, so as to see the sun through the clouds and distinguish the general trend. Under multiple risks and challenges, China's economy is still characterized by "stability" and highlights. The four macroeconomic indicators of "economic growth, employment, prices and balance of payments" show that the "basic market" of China's economy is still stable—— The economy was still operating within a reasonable range in the first three quarters; 10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, achieving the annual target of 95%; National consumer prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, and the overall price level was low and stable; Import, export and utilization of foreign capital still maintained high growth, and foreign exchange reserves have remained above US $3.2 trillion for five consecutive months. The production situation is stable and improving, and the driving force of innovation is increasing—— The increase in autumn grain production is a foregone conclusion, and the annual grain output is expected to hit another record high; In the first three quarters, the two-year average growth of production and investment in high-tech manufacturing was double-digit; The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 172.5%, 57.8% and 43.1% respectively year-on-year The profits of enterprises have increased steadily and the economic benefits have been continuously improved—— In the first eight months, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 49.5% year-on-year and 42.9% over the same period in 2019; In the first three quarters, the restorative growth of fiscal revenue was generally stable, and the national general public budget revenue increased by 16.3% year-on-year; After deducting the influence of price factors, the per capita disposable income of residents in China increased by 9.7% in real terms, basically synchronized with the growth of GDP Under multiple tests, we should strengthen our confidence in development and remain sober in the process of steady recovery. On the one hand, we should see that under the more complex domestic and international situation, economic growth in the fourth quarter and early next year still faces many risks and challenges. Among the four macroeconomic indicators, the structural contradiction of employment is prominent, and the "scissors gap" between CPI and PPI is widening; In the "troika", there are still many factors restricting investment and consumer demand On the other hand, we should firmly believe that although China's economy is facing more complex phased, structural and cyclical problems, we have the means and ability to stabilize the sustained recovery trend, maintain strategic concentration and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy. In the face of pressure, confidence is more precious than gold. China is a super large economy with strong resilience, which comes from the competitiveness of nearly 150 million market players, the integrity of the economic system, the super large domestic market and the unremitting pursuit of a better life by hundreds of millions of people through hard work. At present, international institutions generally predict that China's economy will still achieve economic growth of about 8% this year. Looking at the general trend, we are fully capable and qualified to achieve this year's economic and social development goals. The long-term trend of China's economy will not change, and China's economy will surely move forward steadily on the track of high-quality development. （2） How about the stamina of consumption and investment and how to play the chess game of expanding domestic demand? Consumption and investment are the "double engines" for expanding domestic demand. In the first half of this year, domestic demand contributed more than 80% to China's economy. Consumption is picking up. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 31805.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, maintaining a rapid double-digit growth. In September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.4% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the market sales further accelerated. With the spread of the global epidemic, the resilience of China's consumer market has become more prominent, and the main driving effect of consumer demand on economic growth has further emerged. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first half of the year. At the same time, upgrading consumption grew rapidly, and online consumption continued to be hot. Consumption also shows ups and downs. In August, affected by the multi-point outbreak of the epidemic, consumption increased by only 2.5% year-on-year, down 6 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in the past year; In September, the epidemic situation was effectively controlled, and consumption was further warmed up by the superposition of consumption promotion policies and the consumption pull of the Mid Autumn Festival. There are also bright spots in investment. In the first three quarters, China's fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, achieving stable growth. Among them, the year-on-year growth of manufacturing investment was 7.5 percentage points higher than that of total investment; Investment in high-tech industries increased by 18.7% year-on-year. However, it should also be noted that in the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods and fixed asset investment slowed down compared with the first half of the year. The repeated epidemic situation has a sustained negative impact on service consumption and contact consumption; Due to the large rise in raw material costs and the impact of the epidemic and flood, the growth rate of investment slowed down. Considering the changeable external environment and the possible decline of export growth in the future, it is more critical to stabilize and expand domestic demand. What is the future trend of consumption? In view of last year's base factor, this year's consumption growth will generally show a pattern of "high before low". Consumption will continue to recover steadily in October and even the whole fourth quarter. It is expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the whole year is expected to reach 44 trillion yuan. Overall, China's consumer market has great potential, obvious upgrading momentum, and the basis for consumer recovery is still stable. What is the consumption potential of the Chinese people? It can be seen from this set of data: since the release of the National Day Film Changjin lake, the box office has exceeded 5.2 billion yuan and more than 100 million people have watched the film. Foreign media praised this as "an amazing number unmatched by Hollywood films since the outbreak of the epidemic". Tickets quickly sold out on the opening day of Beijing Universal resort. The Wall Street Journal believes that "tickets are empty in seconds" reflects the huge consumption enthusiasm of Chinese tourists. In the future, a series of policies to promote consumption will continue to be implemented: further stabilize and boost bulk consumption, accelerate the cultivation and construction of international consumption center cities, strengthen the development of rural markets, promote the faster and better recovery of the catering market, and accelerate the development of new consumption... Consumption potential is expected to be further released. The steady growth of investment also has a supporting foundation. In recent days, major projects in Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan and other places have started one after another. In the outline of the 14th five year plan, the "road map" for expanding effective investment has been drawn, and 102 major engineering projects have been steadily promoted. In the coming months, the introduction of more measures to expand domestic demand is expected to accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, further unblock the domestic economic cycle and more effectively stimulate China's super large-scale market potential. （3） Can the "highlight moment" of foreign trade last and how to stabilize the main body and order? Foreign trade, in the latest third quarterly report of China's economy, is a very bright one among many data—— In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of goods trade was 28.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year. In particular, the export was extremely strong in September, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, far exceeding market expectations, and the pulling effect on the national economy was increasing. Since this year, some foreign institutions and foreign media have repeatedly noted the strong growth of China's foreign trade. Reuters said that China's supply chain toughness can not be underestimated. Barclays analysts said this reflected "continued global demand for Chinese goods". Under the impact of the epidemic, Global trade has shrunk, but China's foreign trade has maintained positive growth for 16 consecutive months, especially since this year, it has maintained double-digit growth: on land transportation, the China Europe train, known as the "steel camel team", has operated more than 40000 trains, becoming the "fate link" for countries to fight the epidemic hand in hand; In terms of shipping, in the first three quarters, the cargo throughput of ports across the country was 11.548 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%; The container throughput reached 211 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The "highlight moment" of foreign trade stems from the "dividend effect" of China's effective prevention and control of the epidemic. It is also the embodiment of the long-term fundamentals of China's economy and the highlight of foreign trade toughness and strength. The biggest uncertainty in global commodity trade comes from the epidemic. China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and resumed production in an orderly manner, providing a good environment for production and export. Behind the bright data, there are not no hidden worries. Looking at the foreign trade data since this year, from the quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of China's import and export showed a gradual downward trend in the first, second and third quarters. From a monthly perspective, the import and export growth rate in September was 3.5 percentage points lower than that in August. Considering the high foreign trade base in the second half of last year, the decline in foreign trade growth this year and the overall trend of "high before low" is a high probability event. In particular, the recent flood situation, epidemic situation and tight power supply in some areas have also formed certain restrictions on exports. Behind the rising orders, the transportation capacity is insufficient and the freight is high