Under the severe and complex domestic and international environment, China's economy grew by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, with an average growth of 5.2% in the two years. Among them, the year-on-year growth in the third quarter was 4.9%, and the average growth in the two years was 4.9%. How to view the current economic trend? What is the potential for China's economic growth? Many economists said that we should take a comprehensive and objective view of the quarterly economic slowdown. Cumulatively, China's economy is still in a good recovery state, and there is no problem in maintaining steady and healthy growth. Data show that in the first, second and third quarters of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of China's economy was 18.3%, 7.9% and 4.9% respectively, and the average growth rate in the two years was 5.0%, 5.5% and 4.9% respectively. "From the two-year average growth rate, the gap between the highest growth rate and the lowest growth rate is 0.6 percentage points, which is relatively stable," said Xu Xianchun, Professor of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University and director of the China Economic and social data research center of Tsinghua University. Affected by last year's base figure, "first high and then low" is the basic judgment of experts on China's economic trend this year. "China's economy is not only falling from the second quarter to the third quarter, but the recovery of the world's economic development is in a slow state of decline." Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher at the Counselor's office of the State Council, said that the slowdown of China's economic growth in the third quarter was due to both international and domestic factors, and more to domestic phased and short-term factors. Internationally, the global epidemic is still spreading and liquidity is rampant, which has led to high prices of major raw materials in the international market, including oil, natural gas, ferrous metals and coal, and transmitted to China, raising the operating costs of some enterprises; Domestically, some areas have been affected by multiple impacts such as the epidemic and flood, and the contradiction between power supply and demand has become more prominent. Xu Xianchun said that there were multiple factors in the decline of economic growth in the third quarter. Occasional factors such as tight energy supply and the impact of the epidemic are phased. On the whole, China's economy is still very resilient. Experts said that in the previous three quarters, China's economic growth rate was still high, laying a foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target. "To grasp a country's overall economic situation, the key is to grasp the four major indicators of economic growth, employment, prices and balance of payments." Yao Jingyuan said that China's economic growth in the first three quarters was still within the expected range; 10.45 million new jobs were created, 95% of the annual target; The national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, and the overall price level remained low; Import, export and utilization of foreign capital still maintained high growth. "These four indicators tell us that China's economy is in a good state of recovery." Xu Xianchun believes that from the economic data of the third quarter, we should not only see the pressure, but also see the endogenous driving force of economic development. Continuous optimization of industrial structure - in the first three quarters, the proportion of manufacturing added value was 27.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year; The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 20.1% year-on-year, faster than that of all industries above Designated Size; The contribution rate of service industry growth to economic growth was 54.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the first half of the year. The demand structure continued to improve - in the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first half of the year, and the upgrading consumption and investment in high-tech industries increased rapidly; Investment in education and health increased by 10.4% and 31.4% respectively year-on-year, faster than the growth of all investment. New kinetic energy accelerated growth - in the first three quarters, the output of new energy vehicles and industrial robots increased by 172.5% and 57.8% respectively year-on-year. With the extensive penetration of information technology, new business formats and new models such as online live broadcasting with goods and platform economy are rising rapidly. "The decline in economic growth does not mean that China's economy lacks endogenous power." Yao Jingyuan said that at present, we should not only deal with phased contradictions and temporary problems, but also make greater efforts in structural reform and structural optimization to constantly stimulate new economic momentum and stabilize the trend of sustained recovery. Looking forward to the fourth quarter and early next year, experts said that although there is downward pressure on China's economic growth, it can still maintain a relatively stable growth trend. "Developing the economy is like driving a car. First of all, we should control the steering wheel. Where should the steering wheel go? We should go in the direction of high-quality development." Yao Jingyuan said that the next step is to adhere to the concept of green development, look at and handle the relationship between phased tasks and long-term goals with dialectical thinking, and handle the relationship between steady economic growth and structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, So as to ensure the steady and healthy development of China's economy. In addition, Yao Jingyuan believes that from the perspective of the "troika" of investment, consumption and export, we should further give play to the key role of investment in economic growth, increase the layout of special bonds of local governments, expand effective investment, strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic growth, and increase the pulling role of export in economic growth. Stable investment not only stimulates current domestic demand, but also supports future development, with huge space. Xu Xianchun suggested that in the next step, we should nurture new momentum from many aspects, including actively promoting enterprise digital transformation, increasing support for innovation and R & D, vigorously promoting key core technology research, continuously optimizing the business environment and policy guarantee system, and continuously supporting overseas warehouses, cross-border e-commerce, industrial Internet, etc. "The new economic momentum plays an important role in economic growth and will certainly inject lasting impetus into China's future economic development." (outlook new era)