On the basis of pre issuance in the first quarter, since the second quarter, the proportion of new special bonds in newly issued local bonds has increased significantly, and the ultra long term special treasury bond used to support the "two new" and "double" are also being issued in an orderly manner. Experts believe that the issuance of new special bonds and super long term special treasury bond will be further accelerated, the efficiency of capital use is expected to be improved, and the positive role of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth will be played in a timely manner. The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated into the second quarter, and the issuance of government bonds has further accelerated. In terms of treasury bond, Wind data shows that as of May 12, the scale of treasury bond issued and planned to be issued in the second quarter reached 2.39 trillion yuan, which has exceeded 70% of the actual issuance scale in the first quarter. Among them, since the launch of issuance in late April, ultra long term special treasury bond have issued 192 billion yuan. According to the relevant arrangements for treasury bond issuance announced by the Ministry of Finance earlier, 4 and 3 ultra long term special treasury bond will be issued in May and June respectively. In terms of local bonds, in the first quarter of this year, a relatively high proportion of local bonds issued by various regions were refinancing special bonds used to replace existing implicit debts. Entering the second quarter, the proportion of newly added special bonds has significantly increased. According to data from Enterprise Early Warning, as of May 12th, a total of 407.8 billion yuan of newly issued and planned special bonds were issued in the second quarter, accounting for over 40% of local bonds. Hu Xiaoli, an analyst of Industrial Research, predicted that the issuance of government bonds in the second quarter might reach 7.8 trillion yuan, including 4.6 trillion yuan of treasury bond and 3.3 trillion yuan of local bonds. From the perspective of the pace of local bond issuance, the issuance progress in the first quarter has accelerated compared to the same period in 2024, but it is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. It is expected that the issuance pace in the second quarter will marginally accelerate. According to Huaxin Securities' statistics, as of May 9th, the total planned issuance of local bonds in the second quarter disclosed by various regions was 226.24 billion yuan, of which 47% were newly added special bonds, totaling 106.6 billion yuan; Among them, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan and other regions plan to issue over 100 billion yuan of new special bonds in the second quarter. From the perspective of fundraising direction, the issuance of government bonds this year has provided strong support for expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. On the basis of the first batch of funds of 81 billion yuan for the trade in of consumer goods in 2025, which was expected at the beginning of the year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance timely released the second batch of extra 81 billion yuan of ultra long-term special treasury bond funds to local governments this year, and continued to vigorously support the trade in of consumer goods. The policy effect is becoming apparent. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of 24:00 on April 27th, there were 2.814 million cars exchanged for new, 49.416 million units of 12 types of household appliances exchanged for new, 37.855 million new digital products such as mobile phones purchased, 40.906 million "new" home decoration kitchens and bathrooms, and over 4.2 million electric bicycles exchanged for new, driving sales of related consumer goods of about 720 billion yuan. In terms of "dual" construction, according to the relevant deployment, 800 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond will be allocated this year to support "dual" construction more vigorously. At present, relevant projects are accelerating their progress. For example, China Railway Group recently announced that since 2025, the company has fully utilized the national "dual" project support policies, focusing on networking, network supplementation, and chain strengthening, optimizing construction organization, strengthening on-site operation control, enhancing safety and quality, ecological environmental protection, and engineering investment control, and promoting railway engineering construction with high quality and efficiency. In addition, in order to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, many regions are promoting the issuance of special bonds for land reserve related work. The total amount of land storage special bonds issued in Guangdong, Fujian, Hunan and other places is about 77.4 billion yuan. The recently held meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds, ultra long term special treasury bond, etc. Several experts believe that accelerating the pace of fiscal expenditure is the current focus of fiscal policy implementation. "Next, the pace of issuance of new special bonds may be accelerated, and the number of issuance periods of ultra long term special treasury bond has been determined, which may moderately increase the single issuance limit in May and June. ”Liu Yu, Chief Economist of Huaxi Securities, believes that. Yuan Haixia, President of China Chengxin International Research Institute, stated that further accelerating the issuance and use of new special bonds and providing financial support for project construction have a positive effect on stabilizing growth and investment. At the same time, in order to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, it is necessary to continue to increase the issuance of land storage special bonds, increase support for urban village renovation through special bonds, and accelerate the progress of special bond purchases of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing. Further improvement of the green channel mechanism for project review, acceleration of the implementation of negative lists, and new mechanisms such as spontaneous self review may be implemented to enhance the efficiency of government bond issuance and utilization. Focusing on accelerating the pace of expenditure, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, suggested that the fiscal expenditure scheduled for the second half of the year should be appropriately moved forward to the second quarter, and efforts should be made to boost domestic demand, especially through the wider implementation of trade in of consumer goods and innovation of other policy tools, effectively boosting domestic consumption. It is expected that the pace of new government bond issuances this year will shift forward overall, which can also make room for stronger fiscal policies in the second half of the year. (New Society)