The real estate market continues to stabilize
2025-04-09
This year's Government Work Report proposes to "continue to vigorously promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". 3. In April, the real estate market entered the traditional sales peak season of "golden three and silver four", also known as "little spring". Each region and department will implement targeted and precise policies to support residents' rigid and improved housing needs, and promote the stabilization of the real estate market. Recently, reporters conducted interviews in some cities. On the evening of March 29th, the reporter visited the Beijing Lianjia Tuanjie Lake Contract Signing Service Center, where 11 signing rooms were filled with customers who came to negotiate, as the real estate market volume and price in key cities improved and transaction activity increased. The average daily transaction volume on weekends in March was around 60, an increase of nearly 20 compared to the same period last year, "said Gao Shang, the head of the service center. At this moment, agent Jun Yu came with the client to have a detailed conversation with the owner. Ms. Xu, who has just graduated from university, is interested in a one bedroom apartment near her workplace: "The down payment ratio has decreased, the threshold for purchasing a house has been lowered, and coupled with the reduction of loan interest rates, the combined loan requires a monthly repayment of more than 6000 yuan, which is affordable for newcomers in the workplace." After the Spring Festival, the market has been relatively active, and his store mainly caters to young people's basic needs. In March, 15 transactions were made, an increase of 7 transactions from the previous month, and the transaction pace has accelerated. Gao Yuan, the director of Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, introduced that since the beginning of this year, the number of new housing units and customer sources in the Beijing real estate market has significantly increased, and the willingness of buyers and sellers to enter the market has also increased. In March, the online signing volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing reached the second highest level in nearly 24 months, with a year-on-year increase of 34.7%. In addition to basic needs, improving demand has also become an important support for the real estate market. After giving birth to Xiaobao, we have always wanted to change to a bigger house to improve our living conditions. This year, the government launched a housing subsidy and finally made up our mind to buy it Ms. Li, 42, lives in Yuhang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. Last month, she purchased a three bedroom new house. Huang Yu, Executive Vice President of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, introduced that with the steady progress of new urbanization, the improvement of residents' income levels, and the increase of multi child families, homebuyers tend to pursue larger spaces and higher quality living environments. According to data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in the first two months of this year, the proportion of completed new houses of 90 to 120 square meters in key cities remained at around 40%, accounting for the mainstream of the market; Compared with the same period in 2024, the proportion of improved products with an area of over 120 square meters in 19 cities has increased. In the first quarter of this year, with the optimization and adjustment of real estate market policies, the demand for rigid and improved housing gradually released, and the real estate market continued to stabilize. Especially since March, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has rebounded, and many cities have ushered in a "small spring". In the first quarter of this year, the total transaction volume of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in China increased year-on-year, with the online signing area of second-hand housing transactions growing at a rate exceeding double digits. In March, among first tier cities, the number of second-hand housing online signing transactions in Shenzhen increased by 58% year-on-year, while Beijing and Shanghai both saw year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30%; Among second tier cities, Hangzhou saw a year-on-year growth of 68%, while Chengdu and Xiamen both saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% in transaction volume. From the perspective of housing prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first tier cities continued to rise month on month in February, while the year-on-year decline in sales prices of newly-built residential properties and second-hand residential properties in first, second, and third tier cities continued to narrow, and the trend of housing prices returning to a stable state continued to emerge. The positive trend of stabilizing and stopping the decline in commodity housing transactions extends to the front-end land market. In the first quarter of this year, the average premium rates for residential land in Hangzhou and Shanghai reached 43.3% and 29% respectively, while the average premium rate in Chengdu exceeded 20%. The transaction floor prices in Beijing, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other places reached new highs. Huang Yu analyzed that the rise in land auctions for high-quality plots in key cities is partly due to the optimistic outlook of real estate companies on the stable sales of new houses in these cities and their high willingness to replenish their inventory; On the other hand, various regions have increased the supply of high-quality land parcels and launched many plots located in the core areas of cities with mature supporting facilities. Although the real estate market continues to show positive momentum, there is still differentiation in the real estate market between different cities and their internal sectors. The market recovery in first tier and key second tier cities is better than that in third - and fourth tier cities. Huang Yu introduced that employment opportunities, income levels, and supporting facilities in first tier and key second tier cities are highly attractive to the population, and there is a strong demand for home purchases. At the same time, since the implementation of a package of incremental policies in September last year, relevant policies in first tier and key second tier cities have been further optimized. The policy effect has driven the improvement of residents' confidence in home ownership, and the recovery of the market has become more obvious, overall better than third - and fourth tier cities. 3、 There are also differences in the real estate markets between fourth tier cities. Some cities located in key urban clusters, metropolitan areas, and cities with unique industrial advantages and good ecological environments have certain support for the demand for the real estate market. For example, markets in third tier cities such as Foshan and Zhongshan in Guangdong Province, located in the Pearl River Delta, are gradually recovering. Even in key cities, there is a pattern of 'core strength over periphery', with the core area continuing to recover, new housing in short supply, and the pace of peripheral de urbanization relatively slow Yu Xiaofen, Dean of the China Housing and Real Estate Research Institute at Zhejiang University of Technology, said. Second hand housing restoration is ahead of the new housing market. Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, believes that the current real estate industry is shifting from incremental demand driven to stock replacement driven. This year, there are many available properties in the second-hand housing market. With advantages such as location and cost-effectiveness, the market is better than that of new houses and is the first to recover. In the sales of new houses, the performance of existing houses is better than that of pre-sale houses, and the proportion continues to increase. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales area of existing houses increased by 10% year-on-year from January to February this year, accounting for 35.4% of the sales area of new houses, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024. Yu Xiaofen analyzed that due to significant changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, the real estate market will shift from mainly selling pre-sale properties to steadily increasing the proportion of current property sales. The current property is what you see is what you get, with shorter occupancy cycles and the elimination of delivery risks from the source. She suggested that the shift towards selling existing houses should be accompanied by supporting policies such as financial support and reducing land costs. As the policy effects continue to be released, the recovery trend is expected to continue. What is the trend of the real estate market? Several interviewed experts stated that in the short term, the sales of new and second-hand houses in key cities of the "Silver Four" are expected to continue their recovery trend. However, it should also be noted that the real estate market in some regions is still undergoing adjustment, and there is still pressure to stabilize the market. We must focus on promoting demand and optimizing supply, adhere to the combination of long and short, and address both symptoms and root causes, to promote the sustained release of policy effects. On the demand side, efforts will be focused on consolidating the effectiveness of policy combinations, strengthening the implementation of urban village and dilapidated house renovation, and fully unleashing the potential for rigid and improved housing demand. In a urban village renovation project in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, villager Mr. Wang chose monetary resettlement: "Monetary resettlement has certain policy rewards and can also choose desired properties in other areas." This year, Hangzhou plans to promote multiple urban village renovation projects, implement the renovation in an orderly manner based on reality, and promote diversified relocation and resettlement models as needed to help digest existing commercial housing. Anhui encourages various cities to launch promotional policies such as phased housing subsidies and "trade in" programs; Nanjing, Jiangsu Province has lifted restrictions on the sale of commercial housing throughout the city and increased support for rigid housing purchase policies for young people; Since the beginning of this year, various regions in Guangdong and Shenzhen have successively launched policy combinations to lower the threshold for purchasing a house, alleviate the pressure of purchasing a house, and boost confidence in purchasing a house by adjusting the maximum amount and proportion of housing provident fund. On the supply side, efforts will be focused on revitalizing existing land and commercial housing, promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing, and promoting the construction of good houses, optimizing existing resources and improving quality. This year's Government Work Report proposes to give city governments greater autonomy in terms of acquisition entities, prices, and purposes. This will help further accelerate destocking, promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and also increase the supply of affordable housing, effectively ensuring and improving people's livelihoods Yu Xiaofen said. It is reported that this year, it is planned to arrange special bonds for local governments worth 4.4 trillion yuan, one of which will be used for land acquisition, storage, and purchase of existing commercial housing. The purchased commercial housing will be prioritized for affordable housing, urban village renovation and resettlement housing, talent housing, youth apartments, and staff dormitories. The acceleration of the construction of good houses is also playing a role in creating effective demand through high-quality supply. Outdoor public spaces such as tea rooms, book bars, and gyms with elevated floors are not included in the plot ratio; There are open balconies, smart homes, and efficient storage cabinets indoors... Walking into the first demonstration project of the National Good House Design Competition - the Beijing Longhu Guancui project, even on weekdays, there are still many customers who come to consult. Everyone has higher requirements for housing quality and hopes to receive better services The project sales manager told reporters that since the beginning of this year, the average daily visit volume of the project on weekends has been around 150 sets, and 82 sets were sold in March, an increase of 40 sets compared to the previous month. Next, relevant departments will continue to consolidate the effectiveness of the real estate policy combination, continue to fight the battle of ensuring the delivery of housing, intensify the implementation of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation, promote the acquisition of existing commercial housing, and accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development. At the same time, adapting to changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, meeting the high-quality living needs of the people, promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart houses, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. (New Society)