System responds to deep adjustment of global supply chain

2025-04-01

Security is a prerequisite for development, and the security and stability of industrial and supply chains are the foundation for building a new development pattern. The accelerated evolution of the world's unprecedented major changes and the deep adjustment of the global supply chain have brought multiple challenges to China's development. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that "the industrial chain and supply chain cannot fall off at critical moments, which is an important characteristic that a major country's economy must possess. In the current and future period, it is necessary to grasp the changing trend of the global supply chain, based on the actual development of China, and vigorously improve the modernization level of the supply chain. Highly concerned about the changes in the global supply chain, the essence of the supply chain is the division of labor and cooperation relationship formed by relevant parties based on interest connections, which is a way of resource allocation and value creation that transcends the boundaries of a single entity. In recent years, influenced by global political, economic, technological and other factors, the global supply chain has undergone deep adjustments and significant changes. Security has become an important factor affecting the layout of global supply chains. The world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, with frequent natural disasters and health and epidemic prevention incidents. The global supply chain layout is shifting from mainly based on free trade and economic interests to comprehensively considering economic and non economic factors. Ensuring supply chain security, reducing the impact of various external factors on the supply of key products and materials, and safeguarding the security of the domestic economy and people's livelihoods have become important considerations for all countries. The United States has incorporated supply chain security into its national security strategy, attempting to reshape the global supply chain through significant strategic adjustments and institutional arrangements. Economies such as the European Union and Japan are changing their focus from simply pursuing "efficiency first" goals and promoting supply chain diversification to enhance their ability to respond to various crisis risks. The supply chain has become a new arena for national competition. The multipolar world pattern is accelerating its evolution, and no major country can become the determinant of the global order. The traditional governance mechanism dominated by the West lacks fairness, inclusiveness, and broad representation, and there are differences in the goals, mechanisms, and rules of global supply chain governance among different countries and regions. According to data from the World Trade Organization, in the 12 months ending in mid October 2024, members implemented 169 new trade restriction measures covering a trade volume of approximately $887.7 billion, which is about $500 billion more than the previous year. The escalation of trade protectionism has seriously affected the normal operation of the multilateral trading system, increased geopolitical risks, frequent international trade frictions, increased risks of interruption in international logistics and financial settlement channels, and significantly increased uncertainty in the global supply chain. The global supply chain is moving towards differentiation. Affected by factors such as trade protectionism and intensified geopolitical games, the global supply chain system has begun to shrink and restructure, forming different parallel supply chains in the same production and circulation fields. Some countries choose a supply chain development path based on so-called "values" to promote friendly supply chain layout. Some countries seek a supply chain development path that balances international politics and economy, using production subsidies, tax incentives, government investment, and government procurement to promote the localization and nearshore development of important links and key products in the global supply chain. This has to some extent led to the regionalization of the global supply chain system, which is a supply chain form where the central country controls the core links and neighboring countries support production. The efficiency improvement and cost increase of the global supply chain. With the deep application of information technology, networking, digitization, and intelligence, the digitalization level of the global supply chain is constantly improving. The unmanned production, transportation, warehousing, sorting, loading and unloading, distribution, after-sales and other links are being realized. The process of supply chain transparency, flexibility, and agility continues to advance, and the management level and operational efficiency are further improved. The integration of sustainable concepts into the entire supply chain process and product lifecycle has reduced energy consumption and environmental pollution, and improved resource utilization efficiency. At the same time, the instability of the world situation and various security barriers, technological barriers, green barriers, standard barriers, etc. in international trade have also led to an increase in global supply chain costs. For example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global prices of crude oil, natural gas, food and other commodities rose significantly; After the Red Sea Crisis, the trade volume of the Suez Canal dropped by 42%, and many international shipping companies suspended or bypassed the Red Sea route, resulting in longer transportation distances and slower delivery times, leading to an increase in global shipping costs. The changes in the supply chain have had a profound impact on the increasing interdependence among countries around the world. The global supply chain, industrial chain, and value chain are closely interconnected, and all countries are part of the global cooperation chain. China has deeply integrated into the global supply chain system and has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, with the total volume of goods trade ranking first in the world for many consecutive years. It must also be noted that the changes in the global supply chain will have a profound impact on our country. One is the increase in security risks. The great power game has accelerated the adjustment of the global supply chain pattern. For a period of time, some countries have disrupted the international economic and trade order, promoted the "de Sinicization" of industrial and supply chains, and attempted to shape a key industry supply chain system centered on their own country, aiming to disrupt China's industrial layout, hinder the development of high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and future industries. Although China's industrial system is relatively complete, there are still shortcomings in the research and development manufacturing of high-end chips, basic software, core materials and other fields, facing the risk of "bottlenecks". Secondly, the development space is limited. Some countries and regions define China as a "strategic competitor" or "institutional competitor" and impose containment and sanctions in areas such as economy, trade, and technology, attempting to block China's development momentum. Promoting the so-called 'risk reduction', repositioning the economic and trade relations with China, adopting trade protectionism measures, intending to restrict the development of China's supply chain system, and hindering the 'going global' of China's advantageous products, these measures have had an impact on the production and operation of some globalized enterprises in China. Thirdly, the pressure of industrial competition has increased. China is facing dual pressures of some developed countries suppressing domestic mid to high end industries and some developing countries catching up with mid to low end industries. The "re industrialization" strategy implemented by major economies such as the United States and Europe may prompt some high-tech industries with advantages in China to adjust their supply chain layout. Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other countries have taken advantage of international economic and trade rules and the advantage of cheap labor to increase their efforts to attract foreign investment and adopt various preferential policies to compete with China for cross-border direct investment. In addition, the constantly increasing barriers will raise supply chain costs and pose a risk of weakening the overall competitiveness of China's related industries. Improving the modernization level of the supply chain is not only related to the competitiveness of enterprises and the efficiency of industrial organization, but also to regional economic growth and national competitiveness. To achieve high security and controllability, high-quality development, and high-level international cooperation, we need to strengthen the design of supply chain strategies and system planning, and continuously improve the modernization level of China's supply chain. Enhance resilience and ensure supply chain security and stability. Comprehensively review and grasp the situation of the supply chain, systematically assess and judge risks from the dimensions of criticality, vulnerability, etc., and build a controllable and diversified supply chain security system. Enhance the resilience of key areas and weak links, leverage the advantages of the new national system, integrate national strategic scientific and technological forces, promote key core technology research and development in the supply chain, build a national strategic hinterland and key industry backup, implement the "backup chain" plan in key industries, and enhance the strategic depth and security level of supply chain development. Improve the emergency supply chain system, promote the establishment of an emergency mechanism involving multiple parties such as government, enterprises, and institutions, and leverage their respective advantages. Improve the graded response and joint prevention and control mechanism of the emergency supply chain, accelerate the improvement of the national reserve system, optimize the production capacity and regional layout of key materials, and ensure that emergency resources can be obtained, adjusted quickly, and used at critical moments. Optimize the structure and enhance the competitiveness of the supply chain. Promote the integrated operation of commercial flow, logistics, information flow, and capital flow, improve an efficient and intensive commercial flow service system that integrates online and offline, smooth the effective connection between international and domestic, coastal and inland, urban and rural logistics networks, build an information network that supports data sharing and demand matching in various links of the supply chain, and a dominant global supply chain finance network to achieve positive interaction in production, circulation, and consumption. Enhance innovation capability and quality level, closely track and actively participate in the formulation of international advanced standards, promote the development of important basic research and major infrastructure construction, increase investment in basic components and parts, basic materials, basic software, basic processes, and industrial technology infrastructure. Layout the industrial chain around the development of new quality productivity, promote its coordination with the supply chain and innovation chain, encourage integrated innovation, and promote the performance stability, quality reliability, environmental adaptability and other indicators of key products to reach the international advanced level. Enhance the level of intelligent and green supply chain, accelerate the application of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data, and improve the level of intelligent production, logistics, and operation and maintenance. Promote cleanliness, reduction, resource utilization, and recycling in energy use, production and manufacturing, and product packaging, and build a sustainable supply chain system. Cultivate a symbiotic and win-win supply chain ecosystem, promote the formation of an efficient and flexible supply chain ecosystem led by chain owners, participated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and coordinated by scientific research and financial institutions. Building a combined, collaborative, and agile regional supply chain cooperation and innovation network guided by the national major regional development strategy. Optimize the investment environment in the central and western regions, and build them into a new highland for undertaking industrial transfer from the eastern region. Deepen consensus and expand international cooperation space in the supply chain. Based on the division of labor and competition between China and developed economies in the supply chain field, we will deeply explore their complementarity in industry and market, fully leverage the advantages of China's super large market, expand high-level opening up to the outside world, continue to create a market-oriented, rule of law, and international first-class business environment, consolidate the achievements of supply chain cooperation in traditional fields, and actively expand supply chain cooperation in new fields. Closely monitor and track the trends of developed economies in the fields of digital economy, artificial intelligence, new materials, etc., and strengthen strategic dialogue and policy communication according to the needs of China's emerging industries and future industrial development. Strengthen investment in key countries and regions in developing economies, such as deepening comprehensive strategic partnerships with ASEAN, focusing on manufacturing, transportation, logistics and other industries, promoting standard setting, joint research and development, interconnectivity, and building a regional supply chain system with complementary advantages and mutual benefit; Strengthen cooperation with other BRICS countries, leverage their respective comparative advantages, with the goal of building a strategically coordinated key supply chain, and enhance cooperation in areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies; Based on the natural endowments, industrial structure, and development level of Latin American countries, the focus is on strengthening supply chain cooperation in areas such as agricultural products, mineral resources, and infrastructure. In addition, it is necessary to promote the formation of a new mechanism for global supply chain governance, firmly uphold the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization as the core, fully leverage the role of G20, RCEP and other organizations in supply chain governance, and promote the formation of an open, inclusive, fair, just and representative new mechanism for global supply chain governance. Author: Wei Jigang (Deputy Director and Researcher of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council)

Edit:Luo yu    Responsible editor:Zhou shu

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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