Stepping into the gate of the twelfth lunar month, the festive atmosphere fills the air. Next week is the Spring Festival, and the enthusiasm of every household to purchase New Year's goods is gradually increasing. The "New Year's flavor" is strong in agricultural markets and major supermarkets. During the festive season, whether the supply of "vegetable baskets," "meat cases," and "fruit plates" is sufficient and whether prices are stable have become the focus of consumers' attention. On January 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December 2024. Due to favorable weather conditions for the production, storage, and transportation of agricultural products, the prices of fresh vegetables and fruits decreased by 2.4% and 1.0% respectively compared to the previous month; Affected by factors such as previous pressure on inventory and secondary fattening, the supply of pork is sufficient, and the price has decreased by 2.1% month on month, narrowing the decline by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. In January, reporters learned from Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Yunnan and other places that currently, the total supply of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, eggs, fruits, etc. is sufficient and prices are basically stable. Vegetable production maintains good momentum, prices are stable but rising. Currently, vegetable supply has entered the Spring Festival mode. According to the agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in mid December last year, the total vegetable area in China was over 83 million mu, an increase of over 800000 mu year-on-year, and the vegetable output was 21.7 million tons. With the steady increase in facility vegetable production in the north, a large number of open field vegetables in the south are on the market, and with sufficient winter storage vegetables, the national vegetable production continues to maintain a good momentum, effectively ensuring the supply of the Spring Festival market. At the Huarui Farmers' Professional Cooperative in Yutian, Hebei Province, baskets of winter stored cabbage with pointed tips are neatly stacked in the warehouse, ready for supply to Beijing. The quality of winter stored cabbage this year is better than the same period in previous years, and the price is also higher than last year. Currently, the car price is around 7.6 yuan/kg. As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchase volume of cabbage has increased compared to the end of December last year, and now 50-60 tons are sent to Beijing, Tianjin and other places every day. "Wang Huaiyu, the chairman of the cooperative, introduced that cabbage is the" ballast stone "in vegetables. In order to meet the holiday supply, we have reserved more than 5 million tons of cabbage, and have also made arrangements for personnel and vehicles to ensure that cabbage can be supplied and transported. In Shouguang, Shandong, known as the "hometown of vegetables", greenhouse vegetables are harvested during the harvest season, and Qianchuan Farm is busy with the new year. Starting at 8 o'clock in the morning, farmers from surrounding towns and villages continuously transport their freshly picked vegetables to the farm. After processing, sorting, and loading, these vegetables will be transported to various parts of the country. The holiday is coming soon, and the wholesale market is busy stocking up The farm manager Zhao Wei introduced that since January 12th, the order volume of the farm has increased by about one-third compared to daily production, and more than 200 tons can be shipped out every day. These vegetables are sent out in the afternoon and can arrive at the sales site within 24 hours. At present, the shipment volume of cucumbers, tomatoes, bitter gourds, peppers, round peppers, etc. is relatively large, and it is expected that the order quantity will further increase after the Chinese New Year. Scallion is an essential seasoning on the dining table of ordinary people, and its demand has also increased significantly during the Spring Festival. As the Spring Festival approaches, the daily supply of scallions is around 150 tons, an increase of 25% compared to daily production, "said Mao Yongxi, the" scallion king "of Xinfadi. To ensure the supply for the festival, stock will be prepared one or two months in advance, and warehouses in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Northeast, Gansu and other places will replenish at any time to ensure a continuous supply of scallions to the Beijing market. Affected by the low prices of scallions in the previous two years and the weather in the main production areas during summer, the price of scallions this year is higher than in previous years. The wholesale price in the market is now around 4.6 yuan/kg. After the year, as scallions are gradually launched in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian and other places, it is expected that the price will also decline Mao Yongxi stated. Since New Year's Day, vegetable prices have gradually entered a seasonal upward trend. In the first week of 2025 (December 30, 2024- January 5, 2025), the weekly average price of 28 key monitored vegetables by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 5.16 yuan per kilogram, a month on month increase of 1.0%, a slight increase for three consecutive weeks, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Zhang Jing, Chief Vegetable Analyst of the Market Analysis and Early Warning Team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Deputy Researcher of the Agricultural Information Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, stated that vegetable prices have continued to rise slightly in the past three weeks. This is mainly due to two main factors in the supply of winter and spring vegetables, in addition to stable and stable bulk vegetables such as Chinese cabbage, potatoes, and radishes. One is the transportation of vegetables from the south to the north, which has gradually increased in market size recently, and the cost of insulation and cross regional transportation has increased. The other is the facility vegetables in the north, whose production costs are about 30% higher than those in open field production. The combination of these two factors has resulted in a stable and rising trend in winter and spring vegetable prices. It is expected that the vegetable market supply will be fully guaranteed in the later stage Zhang Jing stated that the Spring Festival is approaching at the end of January, and the combined effect of holiday consumption and seasonal increases in winter and spring vegetable prices will continue to drive up vegetable prices seasonally, which will last until after the Spring Festival. If there are no major disasters such as large-scale strong cold waves and heavy snowfall in the later period, vegetable prices may mainly rise moderately. Short term consumption of pork stimulates a slight increase in pork prices. At the stalls in the meat sales area of Liancheng Central Market in Guangnan County, Wenshan Prefecture, Yunnan Province, various types of fresh pork, pork belly, pork ribs, etc. are readily available, and there is a continuous stream of citizens coming to purchase. Before and after the Winter Solstice, it is the season for pouring sausages and marinating cured meat. Pork is much easier to sell than usual, and as we enter the twelfth lunar month, pork, as the main ingredient, has reached its peak consumption period. Due to sufficient market supply, prices have also slightly increased. "Market pork dealer Tang Yongfen explained that usually only one pig can be sold per day, but in these two days, two or three pigs can be sold. Pig prices have been declining since mid August last year and have not rebounded until the end of December, reaching the lowest level of the year. Currently, the price of live pigs is at 15 yuan/kg Yang Zhonghua, Chairman of the Wuyuan Breeding Professional Cooperative in Shuanghe City, Xinjiang, introduced that currently, the cooperative has a stock of 11000 live pigs. During the Spring Festival, there are about 2000 pigs supplied to the market, and they are most exported to areas such as Gansu and Yili. "In order to maximize breeding benefits, we have changed the breeding model, shortened the stocking time, and accelerated the speed of slaughter." In contrast, the price of black pigs remains firm. At Sichuan Weimu Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd., self bred black pigs are being slaughtered in an orderly manner according to the production rhythm. Consumers are increasingly recognizing the quality of black pork, and sales have significantly increased compared to previous years. The company's annual output is over 10000 heads, and the expected output during the Spring Festival is between 2000-3000 heads. "Li Peining, the chairman of the company, introduced that the price of black pigs is generally 2-4 yuan/kg higher than that of white pigs, and since October, this price difference has significantly increased. The market price of black pigs can reach 24-26 yuan/kg, which is seven or eight yuan more expensive than white pigs. As the Spring Festival approaches, the pig market enters the peak consumption season, and prices have slightly rebounded. As of the second week of January 2025, the prices of live pigs and pork have both rebounded slightly or slightly for two consecutive weeks. The price of live pigs is 16.68 yuan/kg, up 0.7% month on month and 15.9% year-on-year, while the price of pork is 27.80 yuan/kg, up 0.2% month on month and 14.3% year-on-year. The number of newborn piglets will continue to increase in the second half of 2024. Starting from August, the inventory of medium and large pigs over 5 months old will continue to grow. The supply of standard and large pigs is abundant, and the peak of slaughter will be reached before the Spring Festival. At the same time, pork consumption will also enter the highest peak of the year, and the increase in demand will be synchronized with the increase in supply Zhu Zengyong, Chief Analyst of the Pork Market Analysis and Early Warning Team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated that the price trend will remain stable before the Spring Festival, and it is difficult to see significant fluctuations. Even if there are some price fluctuations, the magnitude of the fluctuations will be small and the duration will be relatively short. Zhu Zengyong analyzed that the inventory of sows capable of breeding will continue to increase from May 2024. Calculated based on a 10-12 month slaughter cycle, the number of live pigs slaughtered will gradually increase after March 2025. At the end of November 2024, the national inventory of sows capable of breeding was 40.8 million, approaching the upper limit of green and reasonable regional regulation of pig production capacity. At the same time, the production efficiency of sows is also improving, with one sow providing about 0.6 more fat pigs per year compared to the previous year. It indicates that the number of live pigs slaughtered will continue to increase in the first half of 2025, and there may be a risk of rapid decline in pig prices after the Spring Festival. Can the production end make a profit in this context? From a cost perspective, the cost of pig farming will continue to decline in 2024, but the average cost of the entire industry will still remain around 15 yuan/kg, and some farmers with high farming efficiency have already dropped to less than 14 yuan/kg. From a breeding benefit perspective, self breeding farmers can still maintain an income of 100-200 yuan, but professional fattening farmers are affected by the high price of piglets purchased in the early stage, and the income from selling pigs is around 100 yuan, "Zhu Zengyong introduced. High inventory of laying hens before the festival, with egg prices first rising and then falling. Selenium rich wood eggs, earth eggs, whole grain eggs, sterile eggs... Walking into a supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, various types of eggs are neatly arranged for consumers to choose from. It's almost Chinese New Year and I want to buy more, afraid that the price will rise in a while Ms. Yang put four boards of eggs in her shopping cart. As the Spring Festival approaches, eggs have entered the traditional peak consumption season, with a significant increase in demand. At the Haijixing Agricultural Products Wholesale Market in Tianjin, just as dawn broke, a trailer of eggs from Suning, Hebei stopped at the stall of egg wholesaler Yan Zhongqiang. He and his workers were preparing to unload the goods. In recent days, the sales of eggs have gradually heated up, and the sales volume is basically 2000-3000 boxes per day. During peak periods, there can be 4000-5000 boxes, "Yan Zhongqiang told reporters. The main egg laying area recently is Hebei, and occasionally there are also goods from Shandong and Henan. The goods come and go quickly, and within a day or two, a truckload of goods is basically gone The manager of the Market Comprehensive Management Department, Bian Jianwei, said that the daily average total incoming goods in the market are now around 100 tons, and the price is stable at around 9 yuan/kg, which can fully guarantee the supply of Tianjin and surrounding markets during the Spring Festival period. The egg market is gradually heating up. What is the production and efficiency of upstream egg chicken farming? At present, there are 200000 laying hens in stock, with a daily output of 190000. The price of eggs on the market is between 8.8-9.6 yuan/kg, and after deducting costs, the efficiency of laying hen farming is at a relatively high level. "Mei Yegao, the general manager of Hubei Jiubang Modern Agriculture Co., Ltd., introduced that in order to complete the orders during the Spring Festival peak period, the company has made efforts in feed formula and other aspects to improve the egg laying rate of laying hens, and has also improved the quality of eggs through refined management. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2024, the wholesale price of eggs in China was 10.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.29% month on month and an increase of 1.09% year-on-year. After New Year's Day, egg prices slightly decreased and then stabilized. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, wholesale egg prices fell from 10.15 yuan/kg on January 2 to 10.02 yuan/kg on January 8. Subsequently, egg prices stabilized and slightly rebounded to 10.16 yuan/kg on January 13. The main reasons affecting the recent trend of egg prices are supply and demand Zhu Ning, associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, stated that under the influence of supply and demand, egg prices first rose and then fell before the Spring Festival, with little fluctuation. After the Spring Festival, they were under pressure and fluctuated downwards. From the supply side, due to the continuous profitability of egg laying chicken farming for six months, egg laying chicken farmers have a strong willingness to maintain stable production, and the national inventory of laying chickens remains high. The situation of sufficient egg market supply will continue until the Spring Festival period, which can guarantee the demand of residents. From the perspective of demand, the holiday effect fades in the short term after New Year's Day, and egg consumption has declined to some extent; Entering mid January, the Spring Festival will boost egg consumption, ushering in a prosperous period of about half a month; In the week leading up to the Spring Festival, the pre holiday stocking has been basically completed, and the end market sales have slowed down; After the Spring Festival, egg consumption enters the off-season. Zhu Ning said