The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently released data showing that the positive rate of influenza virus in China is rapidly increasing, with over 99% being H1N1 influenza, with northern provinces showing a clear upward trend. Subsequently, the China National Center for Disease Control and Prevention stated that the overall influenza situation in China is in a seasonal epidemic period, with the predominant strain being the H1N1 strain of influenza A. Has the peak of influenza in Guangdong arrived? Zhao Wei, director of the Biosafety Research Center at the School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, explained that sentinel hospitals conducted sampling tests on influenza like cases, analyzed the types of pathogens, and found that more than 99% of cases were caused by H1N1 infection. This data reflects the high proportion of influenza like cases, but it does not mean that influenza has reached its peak. "Several experts from top tier hospitals in Guangdong pointed out that this year is a" small year "for influenza. Compared to the previous year, the scale and intensity of influenza outbreaks have decreased this year. At present, the development of the influenza epidemic in Guangdong is relatively slow, and the peak period is expected to gradually emerge in the coming weeks. The peak of influenza has been postponed or is related to climate conditions. The influenza epidemic time in this winter has been postponed compared to previous years. Generally speaking, the peak season for influenza is from November to March of the following year, but it was not until December 19, 2024, that the CDC announced the seasonal outbreak of influenza. The doctors who receive treatment on the front line also share the same feeling. Li Shuhua, director of pediatrics clinic of Women and Children's Medical Center affiliated to Guangzhou Medical University, said that the influenza situation this year was relatively stable compared with the same period last year, with no significant peak. Last year at this time, the flu was already at its peak, and although the number of flu patients in outpatient clinics has slightly increased this year, there are still respiratory infections caused by bacteria or viruses such as bronchitis and pneumonia, "said Shen Zhenyu, deputy director of the pediatrics department at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat sen University. From the recent reception situation, the number of flu patients has slightly increased, but the overall situation is not as high as that of outpatient clinics in northern China. Peng Jie, director of the Difficult Infection Diagnosis and Treatment Center at Southern Hospital of Southern Medical University, added: "The flu appeared relatively late this year, with an increase in flu like cases only after New Year's Day, but the number is still relatively small, and the overall situation is relatively stable." Experts believe that the late appearance of flu this year is closely related to climate conditions. Taking Guangzhou as an example, Li Shuhua explained that 2024 experienced the "longest summer". The warm and comfortable climate not only reduced the conditions for virus transmission, but also hindered the survival of viruses due to good ventilation and UV sterilization. More than 99% of cases of H1N1 influenza do not equal the peak of influenza. On January 5th, "Currently, more than 99% of influenza viruses are H1N1 influenza" became a hot topic. Does this mean that the peak of influenza has arrived? Zhao Wei explained that sentinel hospitals found through sampling and testing of influenza like cases that over 99% of cases were caused by H1N1 infection. But this data only reflects the high proportion of influenza like cases with H1N1 influenza, and cannot indicate that influenza has entered its peak period. Several experts have pointed out that this year is a 'little year' for influenza. Peng Jie explained that the influenza virus may experience a major outbreak every 5-10 years, during which years it often presents localized and small-scale outbreaks. Although the number of cases has increased this year, the scale and scope of the epidemic are relatively limited. Why does the flu have "big and small years"? Zhao Wei analyzed that the "big and small year" pattern of influenza is closely related to strain variation. When the virus has not undergone significant mutations, the immune memory generated during the previous year's epidemic can provide some protection for the population, leading to a decrease in the number of susceptible individuals and resulting in the "little year" phenomenon. According to the monitoring report of China CDC, the positive rate of influenza virus testing in southern and northern provinces of China continues to rise, with a slightly more significant increase in northern provinces. Many "old Cantonese" have raised concerns about when the peak of influenza in Guangdong will arrive? Peng Jie said that influenza usually spreads gradually from north to south, with a lag period of about one month. For example, last year the peak of influenza in the north occurred in February, while in the south it was postponed until the end of March to April. The peak of influenza in Guangdong this year may also continue this pattern, and the current epidemic situation is still relatively stable. Influenza antigen detection methods have low sensitivity. With the rise of Internet pathogen detection, many patients choose to self detect and purchase drugs online. Peng Jie admitted that the existing influenza antigen detection methods have low sensitivity, and about one-third of patients can be accurately diagnosed. Some patients may be missed due to false negatives. This issue poses a challenge to clinical diagnosis. When a patient's test result is negative, even if doctors highly suspect it to be influenza, targeted medication may not be prescribed due to a lack of clear diagnostic evidence Peng Jie suggested that introducing more sensitive nucleic acid rapid testing (POCT) is the key to solving the problem. Li Shuhua believes that patients should strictly follow the outpatient diagnosis process and screen for pathogens through blood routine and nucleic acid testing. At present, the accuracy of nucleic acid testing is much higher than antigen testing. If patients experience flu like symptoms, they should go to a regular hospital as soon as possible and be evaluated by professional doctors to avoid delaying treatment. The pathogenicity of influenza virus depends not only on the characteristics of the virus itself, but also closely related to the number of viruses that the human body comes into contact with Zhao Wei emphasized that the current strain of H1N1 virus has not undergone significant mutations, which is not enough to change the existing prevention and control strategies, and the public does not need to panic excessively. In addition, it is recommended that the public wear masks in densely populated or enclosed areas and maintain ventilation. This can not only reduce the probability of infection, but also help alleviate the severity of the condition after infection. The price of flu specific drugs remains stable. With the increasing number of flu infections, the sales of anti flu drugs have also continued to grow recently. At present, the available antiviral drugs for influenza in China mainly include oseltamivir, abidol, mabaloxavir, zanamivir, and paramivir. From a clinical perspective, Mabaloxavir is a one-time medication, while Oseltamivir is usually administered for 3-5 days. By comparison, Mabaloxavir is jokingly referred to as the new generation of "flu miracle drugs", with some pharmacies even charging as high as 300 yuan. On January 6th, the reporter consulted multiple pharmacies in Guangzhou by phone and learned that Oseltamivir has sufficient inventory, while Mabaloxavir is generally out of stock offline and has sufficient online supply. Several pharmacy staff have stated that the inventory of oseltamivir in the store is stable, with prices starting from 40 yuan. You can register with your ID card when purchasing. The customer service of a national chain pharmacy on a certain online platform also confirmed that Oseltamivir is commonly supplied in stores in Guangzhou. In contrast, the offline supply situation of Mabaloshawei is relatively tight. The pharmacy staff generally reported that the medicine is currently out of stock. A shop assistant explained that Mabaloxavir is relatively expensive (with a single unit price exceeding 100 yuan) and has limited demand. Usually, it is necessary to make an appointment with the company in advance, and then the headquarters will deliver it to the store at a fixed time every week. The supply of this drug varies among online drug sales channels, with multiple platforms displaying it as available for sale. It should be noted that pharmacies generally remind that these two medications are prescription drugs and should be purchased reasonably under the guidance of a doctor. What is the difference between Mabaloxavir and Oseltamivir? Peng Jie introduced that Mabaloxavir inhibits the replication of influenza virus, preventing the production of new viruses in the body; Oseltamivir inhibits the release of viruses from infected cells and reduces virus spread. Peng Jie stated that as the Spring Festival travel rush approaches and public places become crowded, enclosed environments may accelerate the spread of respiratory diseases. The public should take basic protective measures, including wearing masks, washing hands frequently, and maintaining ventilation. At the same time, high-risk groups should receive influenza vaccines as early as possible to reduce the risk of infection. (New Society)