In 2024, the world economy will continue to recover, and overall trade demand will increase. At the same time, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, global industrial and supply chain restructuring is deepening, and multiple crises such as food and energy are overlapping. Looking ahead to 2025, the global economic situation remains complex and volatile, with many uncertainties testing the sustainability and balance of the recovery process. It is necessary to accurately predict and actively respond. This issue invites experts to discuss relevant issues. Xiao Lisheng, a researcher at the National Global Strategy Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: The global economy is slowly recovering. In 2024, the global economy is showing a slow recovery trend, inflationary pressures have eased, the overall job market remains stable, trade is gradually recovering, and major central banks are shifting their monetary policies towards easing. However, the performance of different economies has clearly differentiated, and the development gap has further widened. Looking ahead to 2025, the global economy will continue to operate at a medium to low speed. We need to make scientific judgments, respond flexibly, and have firm confidence to do our own things well. In 2024, global economic growth tends to be stable but slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023. Despite avoiding a recession, the economic growth rate is significantly lower than pre pandemic levels, and 2020-2024 will be the slowest five years of global economic growth since the end of the Cold War. In addition, the overall robust performance masks differences between different countries and regions. For example, the US economy has shown strong growth, while the recovery of the Eurozone and Japan is weak, and emerging markets and developing economies are facing even more severe growth challenges. Global inflation continues to decline overall. The IMF expects the global CPI to increase by 5.8% year-on-year in 2024, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from 2023. For major economies, high inflation is no longer the main issue. As of November 2024, the year-on-year increase in CPI in the United States and the Eurozone has decreased to 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively. However, inflation in some economies is still rising and far higher than the target level of the central bank, such as Russia, Argentina and Türkiye. The global job market has shown good resilience. The International Labour Organization expects the global unemployment rate to be 4.9% in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023. From the perspective of unemployment rates, developed economies have relatively tight labor markets and generally low unemployment rates, while emerging markets and developing economies have generally high unemployment rates. From the trend of change, the unemployment rate in developed economies is mostly on the rise, while the unemployment rate in emerging markets and developing economies is mostly on the decline. Global trade is showing a trend of recovery. The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global trade in goods to grow by 2.7% in 2024, breaking free from the contraction quagmire of 2023. Global trade growth is mainly driven by exports from China, the United States, and India, with weaker than expected trade growth in Europe and a decline in exports from Africa. From an industry perspective, emerging industries such as green energy and artificial intelligence have shown strong growth in trade. Major central banks have successively started to cut interest rates. Major central banks have shown significant differences in their efforts to combat inflation and promote economic recovery, resulting in a "tiered" pattern of interest rate cuts in this round. In 2023, Latin American economies such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Peru will be the first to cut interest rates. Subsequently, some developed economies also began to cut interest rates. In the first half of 2024, European and American economies such as Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, and the eurozone began to cut interest rates, while the United States postponed the start of interest rate cuts until September. There are also a few economies that choose to raise interest rates against the trend, such as Japan. In 2025, the global economy will still demonstrate strong resilience, but face many uncertain factors. The IMF predicts that global economic growth is expected to remain at a level of 3.2% by 2025. However, this estimate has not fully taken into account the many risks of a global economic downturn. The escalating trade tensions, rising risks of protectionism, and potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts could all lead to a significant decline in global economic growth. If the new Trump administration significantly increases tariffs in 2025, it could trigger a global trade war and significantly increase the risk of global economic recession. Key indicators such as global inflation, employment, and trade will continue to operate smoothly, but uncertainty has increased. The global inflation level may show a downward trend, and the IMF predicts that the global CPI increase will further decrease to 4.3% by 2025. But the tax cuts and tariffs implemented by the new Trump administration may push for a rebound in US inflation levels. The global job market remains generally stable, but the youth unemployment rate remains high and it is difficult to see significant improvement in the short term. Global trade is expected to show a recovery trend, and the WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate will reach 3.0% by 2025. However, factors such as increased geopolitical uncertainty, intensified strategic competition among major powers, and rising trade protectionism may pose a threat to the prospects of global trade growth. In addition, the global supply chain is also facing pressure to accelerate adjustments. In the face of the complex evolution of the global economic situation, it is necessary to scientifically assess the situation, proactively formulate response plans, and strive to cultivate new opportunities in crises and open up new opportunities in changing situations. Based on domestic development, implement more proactive macro policies. On the one hand, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, in order to maintain the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with expected economic growth and overall price levels, and to increase financial support for the real economy. On the other hand, we will implement more proactive fiscal policies, moderately increase the fiscal deficit ratio, and use a combination of deficit, special debt, fiscal subsidies, interest discounts, taxes and other policy tools to ensure that fiscal policies continue to be stronger and more awesome. In addition, we will use a combination of policies to strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment and other policies, and further enhance the synergy of policies. Strengthen international macroeconomic policy coordination and continue to expand high-level opening-up to the outside world. Strengthen dialogue and communication with major economies on macroeconomic policies, enhance policy transparency, and strengthen cooperation in enhancing global financial stability and maintaining appropriate liquidity. Orderly expand independent and unilateral opening up, steadily expand institutional opening up, and take effective measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment. Pay close attention to external risks and challenges, and build a strong "firewall" for China's financial security. Strengthen forward-looking analysis of the global economic situation and the Trump administration's policy towards China, improve the policy toolbox, and respond promptly to possible external shocks. Closely monitor global economic and financial trends, regularly conduct stress tests, and refine emergency plans. Improve the macro prudential management framework, strengthen monitoring of capital flows, and continuously enhance financial risk prevention and control capabilities. Zhao Shuogang, Deputy Director of the World Economy Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center: The reconstruction of industrial and supply chains has accelerated. In recent years, economic globalization has encountered strong headwinds, trade protectionism has risen, and geopolitical conflicts have intensified, profoundly changing the international industrial division of labor pattern. The global industrial and supply chains have shown a trend of localization, regionalization, and diversified development. Since 2024, the global industrial and supply chain restructuring has been continuously deepening and presenting some new characteristics. The regionalization trend of the industrial chain is becoming more apparent. To improve supply chain security, countries such as the United States are vigorously promoting "nearshore outsourcing", supporting companies to increase their production layout in neighboring countries and shorten the distance of the supply chain. The implementation of large-scale free trade agreements such as the USMCA and RCEP has strengthened the industrial division of labor among countries in the region, and the trend of regional development of global industrial and supply chains has become more evident. In North America, Mexico, as a coastal manufacturing hub for the United States, has received 40% of its foreign investment since 2024 from the United States and Canada, with over 50% flowing into the manufacturing industry, further consolidating Mexico's position as the largest source of imports for the United States. Difficulties in localizing manufacturing in the United States and Europe have emerged. The United States and the European Union have introduced a series of policies to vigorously promote the return of manufacturing industries such as semiconductors and new energy. Under policy incentives, many multinational corporations have announced large-scale investment plans. However, due to factors such as weakened market demand, insufficient subsidy funds, higher than expected construction costs, and inadequate industrial support, many projects have not progressed as expected. According to a survey released by the Financial Times, in the first year of the Biden administration's implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chip and Science Act, the total investment in projects that were delayed or indefinitely suspended amounted to $84 billion, accounting for approximately 37% of the announced total investment. Europe is facing pressure to deindustrialize due to weak economy and high inflation. Since September 2024, car companies and component suppliers such as Volkswagen, Audi, and ZF have successively announced plans to close European factories or carry out large-scale layoffs. The restructuring of the industrial chain extends towards upstream mineral resources. With the increasing importance of key minerals and raw materials for global energy transformation and strategic emerging industries, countries are increasing their investment in the development and utilization of key minerals, establishing diversified mineral supply chains through the construction of localized supply chains and strengthening cooperation with resource rich countries. Since 2024, the "Mineral Security Partnership" led by the United States has further expanded and established the "Mineral Security Finance Network" to increase investment in mineral development projects in developing countries. The European Union officially passed the Key Raw Materials Act in March 2024, which stipulates that by 2030, at least 10% of the annual consumption of key raw materials must come from internal mining within the EU, and at least 40% must be processed within the EU. At the same time, resource rich countries also extend their local industrial chains by raising taxes and fees, restricting or prohibiting the export of raw ores, and other means. Looking ahead to the future, in the context of a new round of global technological revolution and industrial transformation, more intense competition among major powers, and a more complex international geopolitical situation, the process of restructuring the global industrial and supply chains will press the "acceleration key". One is for developed countries to increase their intervention in the return of manufacturing industries. Driven by the rising populism and protectionism, developed countries such as the United States and Europe will continue to increase their intervention in industrial development under the pretext of safeguarding national security and "de risking", and promote the return of strategic industries and core manufacturing links to their homeland. Secondly, emerging economies are seizing opportunities for industrial transfer and development. For labor-intensive industries and non core processing and manufacturing links that developed countries do not have comparative advantages in, some countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central America, and Central and Eastern Europe are taking advantage of their factor cost advantages and geopolitical favorable positions to actively cater to the demands of developed countries for nearshore industrial chains and diversified supply chains of multinational enterprises, actively undertake related industrial transfers, and are expected to develop into regional processing and trade industry clusters. Thirdly, the development of digital technology accelerates the transformation of industrial and supply chains. The rapid development of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, and their continuous integration with the real economy, will accelerate the automation and intelligent upgrading of industrial and supply chains. The "2024 World Robot Report" released by the International Federation of Robotics predicts that the global installation of industrial robots will continue to grow rapidly in the next three years. The digital transformation will not only improve production efficiency, but also shorten the supply chain links, weaken the impact of traditional production factors on industrial layout, and accelerate the development of industrial and supply chain nearshore and localization. The adjustment and reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain not only increases the pressure of China's industrial chain relocation, but also brings opportunities for industrial transformation and upgrading. We need to strengthen policy guidance, support enterprises to carry out foreign direct investment reasonably, and help them scientifically evaluate and avoid investment risks. Promote the orderly transfer of industrial priority in the domestic gradient, and guide key links and core technologies in the industrial chain to stay in the country