Humanoid robots enter a critical period of initial application trials

2025-01-06

Recently, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released the "Research Report on the Development of Humanoid Robot Industry (2024)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which pointed out that after years of development and technological iteration, driven by huge potential market demand and deep empowerment of artificial intelligence technology, the "brain" of humanoid robots is exploring multiple technological routes in parallel, and the "cerebellum" as a whole is evolving from model-based control methods to learning based control methods, and the technological routes of various components of the limbs are gradually converging. The application scenarios in production and manufacturing, social services, and special operations are constantly being explored, and the construction and optimization of the industrial chain are accelerating. Humanoid robots have entered a critical development period of technological breakthroughs and preliminary application trials. As an important track for future industries, humanoid robots are a landmark achievement of technological self-reliance and self-improvement, a model of integrated innovation in fields such as artificial intelligence, mechanical engineering, and electronic engineering, and one of the best means to achieve new quality productivity. In the field of production and manufacturing, humanoid robots can effectively solve the problem of aging population and alleviate future labor shortages, such as working in agricultural picking, automotive and 3C manufacturing industries; In the field of social services, it can replace humans to engage in public services, household services, logistics distribution, security patrols and other work, providing services for humanity; In special operation scenarios, such as deep sea, civil explosives, nuclear power plants, and other hazardous work scenarios, replacing humans to complete production, inspection, detection, and explosive discharge work; In the field of aerospace, it replaces human long-term stationing on space stations, performs aircraft maintenance and space research tasks, and extends working hours in outer space. The report points out that currently, the humanoid robot industry chain mainly consists of upstream component production, midstream humanoid robot body production, and downstream terminal application research and development. At present, China has basically formed a supply system covering the whole industrial chain of humanoid robots. However, as humanoid robots have not yet achieved large-scale commercial landing in downstream terminal applications, China's humanoid robot industrial chain is still being constructed and optimized. The report points out that from now until 2028, all powerful humanoid robots will be at the Lv1 level, with scientific research as the main landing scenario. Customers will mainly be research teams from universities, enterprises, and other research institutions engaged in software and hardware related to humanoid robots. Other forms of humanoid robots will accelerate their evolution towards the Lv2 level, and the overall market size will be between 2 billion and 5 billion yuan. From 2028 to 2035, humanoid robots will enter the Lv2 level as a whole, mainly applied in special scenarios, gradually landing in industrial scenarios, and the market size of the whole machine will reach 5 billion to 50 billion yuan. From 2035 to 2040, humanoid robots will enter the Lv3 level as a whole, forming a scale in industrial scenarios, gradually landing in service scenarios, and the overall market size of the machine will reach 100 billion to 300 billion yuan. From 2040 to 2045, humanoid robots will enter the Lv4 level as a whole, achieving large-scale applications in industrial and service scenarios, and the overall market size of the machine will reach 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan. After 2045, humanoid robots will enter the Lv5 level as a whole, with over 100 million humanoid robots in use and entering various industries, with a total market size of up to 10 trillion yuan. For the future development of the humanoid robot industry, the report points out that it is foreseeable that the widespread application of humanoid robots will profoundly change social forms and people's production and lifestyle, and has become a hot topic in the global technology field. The industry generally believes that humanoid robots are expected to become a new terminal in the future, following personal computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, forming a new trillion level market. The report points out that from the perspective of iteration path, the To B market is a necessary stage for the development of humanoid robots, and the To C market will become a key direction in the long term. From a technological perspective, the "brain" and "cerebellum" belong to the ICT field, while the "limbs" belong to the industrial equipment field. The two fields should work together and integrate for development. But the focus of efforts varies at different stages. In the early stage of industrial implementation and when the application scale is small, the important factor for the landing of humanoid robots is their level of intelligence. Efforts should be focused on the ICT field to accelerate the development of "big and small brain" technology and fill the gaps in components. In the stage of large-scale application, cost becomes the core factor. The most basic requirement for using humanoid robots in industrial scenarios is that the comprehensive cost of purchase, depreciation, maintenance, etc. is less than the labor cost. Currently, the release price of humanoid robots is still in the hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan, and efforts need to be focused on reducing costs in the field of industrial equipment. (New Society)

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:People's Post and Telegraph

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