The Trend of Growth: Multidimensional Data Depicting the Landscape of Economic Vitality

2024-12-26

Looking at development through data. A panoramic view of China's economy is depicted with data and indices from macro, micro, and different fields and dimensions. Standing at the end of 2024, through these numbers, we can perceive the resilience and vitality of China's economic operation, and analyze the driving force and trends of economic development. Domestic demand landscape: Policies stimulate market potential. Multiple dimensions of data show that with the support of policies such as "two new" and "two double", China's consumption vitality has been continuously released and investment has shown steady growth since 2024. In terms of consumption, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 44272.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. 2024 is the year when the consumer market shifts from replenishment to normalized and stable growth. With the overall recovery trend of our country's economy, although the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, the trend of gradually stabilizing has already emerged Wang Wei, former director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said. Upon closer examination of some sub item data and indices, the highlights and vitality of the consumption "main engine" are highlighted: the policy of exchanging old for new has a significant driving effect. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, since 2024, the overall sales of related products have been driven by the trade in policy for consumer goods, exceeding 1 trillion yuan. ——Stable release of service consumption demand. The Life Service Consumption Heat Index, constructed by the National Information Center based on user consumption order data from life service e-commerce platforms, increased by 18.3% year-on-year from January to November 2024, with 12 provinces, regions, and municipalities experiencing growth rates exceeding 20%. ——From "outdoor economy" to "ice and snow economy", new forms of consumption and new growth points are highlighted. According to the Geographic Points of Interest (POI) data from the National Information Center, as of November 2024, the number of camping sites has increased by 46.5% compared to the previous year. Since November, the booking volume of ice and snow related scenic spots across the country on Qunar platform has increased by 30% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2023. According to investment data, although real estate investment has declined, overall investment growth has remained stable since 2024 due to the effective implementation of policies such as "dual" construction and large-scale equipment upgrades. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2024, fixed assets investment will grow by 3.3% year on year, and remain basically stable for four consecutive months. Among them, investment in manufacturing increased by 9.3%, significantly faster than the overall investment growth. According to the "Excavator Index" provided by Shugen Internet, in November, the national construction machinery operating rate was 51.72%. Among them, the comprehensive operating rate of 5 provinces has been increasing for 4 consecutive months, and 3 provinces have been increasing for 5 consecutive months. Foreign trade landscape: Quality improvement, stable quantity, and accumulated momentum. In the first 11 months, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 39.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; As of November, China's monthly import and export of goods trade has maintained growth for 8 consecutive months... Since 2024, the overall quality and quantity of China's foreign trade development have remained stable. Zhang Wei, Vice President of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that since 2024, facing many severe challenges and supported by a series of measures to stabilize growth, China's import and export of goods have shown good growth in the first 11 months, outperforming the overall global level. Multiple high-frequency data also demonstrate the vitality of foreign trade from other aspects. The fluctuation of pedestrian flow in bonded zones is an important indicator reflecting trade activity. According to monitoring data from the National Information Center, the heat index of pedestrian flow in bonded zones increased by 3.9% year-on-year from January to November 2024, and the overall market vitality was better than in 2023. According to the value-added tax invoice data released by the State Administration of Taxation, in November 2024, the sales revenue of the transportation and logistics industry, including ocean freight transportation and freight transportation agency related to foreign trade, increased by 30.6% and 26.9% year-on-year, respectively. While maintaining stable growth in scale, the trend of accumulating new momentum in foreign trade continues. Digital trade and cross-border e-commerce exports have become new drivers of growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's imports and exports of digitally deliverable services reached a record high of 2.13 trillion yuan, and cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached 1.88 trillion yuan. The latest data from Shanghai Customs shows that in the first 11 months of 2024, Pudong Airport Port supervised 476 million cross-border e-commerce direct purchase export goods, with a value of 71.662 billion yuan. The volume of cross-border e-commerce direct purchase export orders increased by 20.2% year-on-year. Global trading partners provide a broader space for future development. As of November 15, 2024, the cumulative operation of China Europe freight trains has exceeded 100000, and more than 17000 trains have been operated since the beginning of this year, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The CHINA RAILWAY Express has become a vivid footnote to deepen cooperation with China's trade partners such as the countries jointly built along the "the Belt and Road". Dynamic Landscape: Enterprises are the main body of innovation, continuously striving towards the "new" direction. Multiple data such as R&D intensity and patent conversion rate show that innovation in Chinese enterprises continues to be active, injecting vitality into economic development. R&D intensity "is a direct reflection of a company's innovation investment. The "2024 Top 500 Chinese Enterprises" list shows that a total of 1.81 trillion yuan was invested in research and development, an increase of 14.89% compared to the same caliber. The R&D intensity reached a new high of 1.90%, which is also the highest value since 2002; According to data from the China Association of Listed Companies, the R&D investment of listed companies reached 110 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with increasing R&D investment from companies listed on the ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange. The R&D intensity in the first three quarters was 4.74%, 9.94%, and 4.73%, respectively; According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2024, the average R&D investment of specialized, refined, and innovative "little giants" enterprises will reach 7%, which is 2.6 times the R&D investment intensity of the whole society. Patent ownership is another important indicator for observing a company's innovation capability. According to the data of the China National Intellectual Property Administration, as of November 2024, the proportion of enterprises in China's domestic valid invention patents has reached 73.5%, up 2.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, with a considerable number of patents coming from small and medium-sized enterprises. Meanwhile, by 2024, the effective industrialization rate of invention patents for small and medium-sized enterprises in China will reach 55.1%. It is worth noting that the vitality of innovative enterprises is also continuously improving. The National Information Center has constructed a technology innovation enterprise flow heat index based on the flow of people in the business premises of technology innovation enterprises nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% from January to November. Industry insiders believe that the new quality productivity characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality is accelerating its growth, driving more enterprises to take steps towards new and optimal development, injecting strong impetus into promoting high-quality development. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue    Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Economic Information Daily

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