The housing prices are now experiencing a positive change of 'stopping the decline and stabilizing', and a small rebound in the real estate market is expected in 2025

2024-12-17

With the effectiveness of various policies to promote the "stabilization" of the real estate market becoming apparent, market transactions are becoming more active and prices are showing signs of stabilizing. The National Bureau of Statistics released housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in November yesterday (16th), and the year-on-year decline in each tier city narrowed for the first time this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the increase in transaction volume has led to a stabilization of housing prices. Based on the month on month data, housing prices in first tier cities increased overall in November, while the month on month decline in second - and third tier cities narrowed; From the year-on-year data, the year-on-year decline in housing prices in first, second, and third tier cities narrowed in November, marking the first time this year. At the same time, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in November, the number of cities with a month on month increase in new housing prices increased by 10 compared to the previous month, and the number of cities with a month on month increase in second-hand housing prices increased by 2 compared to the previous month. The housing prices have stabilized and experienced more changes Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and head of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 16th. With the implementation of a series of favorable policies since the end of September, the real estate market transactions have become more active, and prices have shown a trend of stabilizing. Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, analyzed that the acceleration of transactions is an important factor in the "stabilization" of housing prices. Anjuke online data shows that the listing time for second-hand houses in first tier cities has shortened, indicating that market transactions are accelerating. The shortening of the transaction cycle is a prerequisite indicator for the 'stabilization' of housing prices. As the transaction cycle continues to shorten, the probability of the overall stability of the real estate market greatly increases. In addition to first tier cities, the demand for replacement in hot second tier cities has also shown an upward trend in recent times. According to Anjuke's online data, the number of second-hand housing listings in core cities increased to a certain extent in November. In previous years, the listing volume gradually decreased towards the end of the year, but this year it has increased instead of decreased, indicating that the market trading heat has significantly increased under the influence of policy effects, "said Zhang Bo. The 'little spring' of the real estate market is expected to advance. Since the release of a series of new housing policies at the end of September, the performance of the real estate market has improved for two consecutive months. According to data from Zhongyuan Real Estate, based on the transaction volume of second-hand houses in key first and second tier cities, the transaction area in October surged by 30% compared to September before the new policy, and in November, it increased by another 16% on the basis of October. The monthly transaction volume reached a new high since March 2023. Various policies, from intensity to pace, are like injecting a shot of adrenaline into the real estate market, greatly boosting market confidence, providing more abundant liquidity for the market, lowering the threshold for home buyers, and giving more people the opportunity to realize their dreams of buying a house Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, stated. With the recent Central Economic Work Conference proposing to "continue to vigorously promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", analysts generally believe that various support policies are expected to continue to be implemented in 2025, and market expectations will continue to improve. Zhang Dawei stated that with various policies gradually implemented, the second-hand housing market further heated up in December, and the increase far exceeded expectations. Based on the latest performance of the second-hand housing market in the first half of December, the transaction volume in key cities has surged by 27% month on month. Looking ahead to the future, he believes that the heat of the real estate market will continue, and the "Little Spring" in 2025 is expected to advance. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue    Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China.org.cn

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