The data on the operation of the national economy in November released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th shows that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November; The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year; The national urban survey unemployment rate is 5.0%, which is the same as last month... Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and head of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said at a press conference that under the continuous release of macroeconomic policy combination effects, production grew rapidly in November, demand continued to expand, employment prices remained generally stable, the real estate and stock markets tended to be active, market expectations continued to improve, new quality productivity steadily developed, and the economic operation continued to rebound. However, it should also be noted that the international environment is becoming more complex and uncertain, with insufficient effective domestic demand and some enterprises facing operational difficulties Fu Linghui stated that in the next stage, we must conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, implement more proactive macro policies, expand domestic demand, promote sustained economic recovery and improvement, and effectively safeguard and improve people's livelihoods. Since the beginning of this year, industrial production has been a prominent highlight in economic operation, maintaining overall stable and rapid growth. Specifically in November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of a relatively high base in the same period last year, the growth rate still accelerated by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The mainstay of the industry is manufacturing, which grew by 6%, with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points faster than last month, "said Fu Linghui. According to Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, the industrial added value slightly increased year-on-year in November, driven by the acceleration of manufacturing production. Behind it is mainly accompanied by the introduction of a package of incremental policies, improved market confidence, demand recovery, and driving enterprise expansion. At the same time, the export of industrial products has significantly rebounded, supporting the stable and positive development of the industrial economy. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that the resilience of external demand and the emergence of the "export rush" effect are supporting exports. According to Sun Xiao, a statistician from the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 7.4% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate since August 2022, and accelerated by 3.7 percentage points compared to October. By industry, in November, 34 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value. Among them, the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 7.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 5.2%, and the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 9.3%. Driven by the "two new" policies and the rebound in exports, the automotive industry has shown good growth momentum. In November, the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 12.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 5.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. It is worth mentioning that while industrial production is improving, the transformation towards intelligence and green products is also continuously advancing, with rapid growth in the production of smart devices and green products. In November, the added value of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and intelligent vehicle mounted equipment manufacturing increased by 60.6% and 13.9% respectively; The production of new energy vehicles and solar cell products increased by 51.1% and 10.9% respectively. Looking ahead to the future, Wang Qing believes that a package of incremental policies will continue to promote the expansion of consumption and investment demand. In addition, there may be a short-term "export rush" effect, which will have a strong impact on industrial production. Therefore, the industrial production growth rate in December is expected to maintain a relatively fast growth level between 5.0% and 6.0%. The momentum of consumption recovery has not changed. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4376.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Fu Linghui analyzed this and pointed out that due to the early diversion of online shopping during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell slightly compared to the previous month, but the monthly growth rate was still faster than the average growth rate of the third quarter, and the momentum of consumption recovery has not changed. He said, "If we combine October and November, the average growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in society is 3.9%, which is 1.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in the third quarter, indicating an overall rebound in market sales since the fourth quarter." "In addition, there are also structural highlights in November." Wang Qing mentioned that firstly, the year-on-year growth rate of automobile retail sales in the month increased by 6.6%, which is 2.9 percentage points faster than the previous month. Although the year-on-year growth rate of household appliance retail sales slowed down under the disturbance of overdraft effect, it still maintained a high growth level of 22.2%, mainly due to the sustained consumption promoting effect of supporting the trade in policy for durable consumer goods. Secondly, the real estate market continued to rebound in November, driving a significant improvement in housing related consumption. In addition, under the promotion of service consumption policies, residents' demand for service consumption continues to be released, supporting the rapid growth of service retail. In November, the growth of residents' catering consumption accelerated, and the national catering revenue increased by 4% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than the previous month. The growth of service retail sales continues to be faster than that of commodity retail sales. From January to November, the service retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, which was 3.2 percentage points faster than the commodity retail sales. Overall, the trend of overall market sales recovery since the fourth quarter continues, and the policy driven effect continues to be evident. But it should also be noted that the endogenous driving force of consumption growth needs to be further strengthened Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, we should actively stabilize employment and increase income, enhance residents' consumption ability, improve consumption policies, increase residents' consumption tendency, vigorously improve supply quality, better unleash consumption potential, and promote stable and healthy economic development. The main goals of economic and social development for the whole year are expected to be successfully achieved by more than half of December, and 2024 is about to pass. Looking back at this year's economic trend, Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, the international environment has been complex and severe, the global economic recovery has slowed down, and the difficulties in domestic economic adjustment and transformation have increased. The economic operation started well in the first quarter, but the pressure has increased in the second and third quarters. In response to this, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has made scientific decisions and increased countercyclical regulation, especially after the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26. A package of incremental policies has been accelerated, and major economic indicators have significantly rebounded since the fourth quarter, effectively boosting social confidence and significantly increasing positive changes. From the perspective of the whole year, the main goals of economic and social development are expected to be achieved smoothly. Wang Qing predicts that after the overdraft effect recedes, there will be a significant rebound in consumption growth rate in December, and industrial production growth rate will maintain a relatively fast growth level of over 5.0%. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to be in a high growth state close to double digits. With the accelerated support of loan disbursement for "whitelist" projects, the decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow. It is expected that the GDP in the fourth quarter will reach around 5.2% year-on-year, which will ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of around 5.0%. Looking at next year, the international environment will become more complex, severe, and uncertain. Fu Linghui said that domestically, economic adjustment and transformation are still being promoted, and efforts are still needed to expand domestic demand, promote residents' employment and income increase, and resolve risks and hidden dangers. Faced with the complex and severe domestic and international situation, the recently held Central Economic Work Conference has made comprehensive arrangements for doing a good job in next year's work. For example, next year we will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with the top priority being to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand. Overall, next year's work will focus on achieving an optimized combination of stable growth, stable employment, and reasonable price recovery. It is expected that the economic growth target for next year will continue to be set at around 5.0%, which is the same as last year and this year. The policy intensity may be adjusted in real-time with changes in internal and external environments to help achieve established goals Wen Bin said. (New Society)