Second hand houses once again serve as a leading indicator of market warming. On December 11th, the China Index Research Institute released a map of second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities in November 2024, showing that the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.57% month on month in November, narrowing the decline by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month. The second-hand housing market in first tier cities is more active, with the average price of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities falling by 0.17% month on month, narrowing the decline by 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen and Chengdu increased by 0.21% and 0.12% respectively month on month, breaking the seven consecutive months of comprehensive decline in all 100 cities. Industry experts say that with the support of the "tax reduction for home purchases" policy, it is expected that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in core cities will continue to be high, and prices are expected to continue to decline. The key word for the second-hand housing market in November is the narrowing of the price drop due to Beijing's pullback. According to data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, in November 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in Baicheng decreased by 0.57% month on month, narrowing the decline by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month and decreasing by 7.29% year-on-year. The average price of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities decreased by 0.17% month on month, narrowing the decline by 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous month; The year-on-year decline was 7.16%, narrowing by 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous month. From the perspective of cities, although the second-hand housing prices in most cities are still declining month on month, the decline is showing a narrowing trend. Among them, Nanjing experienced a significant month on month decline of 0.6%, narrowing the decline by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month. Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Tianjin followed closely behind, with declines of 0.43%, 0.42%, and 0.31% respectively. Wuhan and Hangzhou both narrowed their declines by 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous month, while Tianjin narrowed by 0.18 percentage points. From the perspective of first tier cities, the month on month declines in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing were 0.26%, 0.19%, and 0.12%, respectively. Among them, the month on month declines in Guangzhou and Shanghai remained the same as the previous month, while Beijing narrowed by 0.17 percentage points compared to the previous month. In terms of year-on-year decline, Wuhan and Nanjing experienced significant declines of 10.82% and 10.24% respectively; Chongqing (main urban area), Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai all experienced year-on-year declines ranging from 7% to 9%; The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices in Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Chengdu is between 5% and 7%; Shenzhen fell 4.42% year-on-year. Xu Yuejin, Deputy Director of Research at the Zhongzhi Research Institute, stated that in the short term, the second-hand housing market in core cities is still hot. With the support of the "purchase tax reduction" policy, it is expected that the second-hand housing transactions in core cities will continue to be high, and the decline in second-hand housing prices is expected to continue to narrow. At the same time, on December 9th, the Central Political Bureau meeting released more positive signals from macro policies and real estate market adjustments. It is expected that the Central Economic Work Conference will provide more specific policy directions in the future, and there are also follow-up expectations for more incremental policies, such as continuing to optimize restrictive policies in first tier cities, increasing housing subsidies to supplement headcount, etc., to promote the real estate market to achieve "stop falling and stabilize". The policy effect of both quantity and price rising gradually shows in the short term, and the pent up demand in the early stage of the market continues to be released. Data shows that the number of second-hand housing transactions in key 30 cities from January to October 2024 increased slightly by 1.1% year-on-year. In November, the number of second-hand residential transactions in key 20 cities increased by 11.7% month on month and 26.3% year-on-year. Under the influence of policies such as the cancellation of standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties, and the adjustment of deed tax, market confidence has further strengthened, and the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing has reached a 20 month high. Specifically, in November, 18763 second-hand residential units were sold in Beijing, an increase of 8% month on month and 49.6% year-on-year. The cumulative transaction volume from January to November 2024 increased by 8.2% compared to the same period last year. Similarly, the second-hand housing markets in Shenzhen and Chengdu have also shown significant growth and changes. In November, 7125 second-hand residential properties were sold in Shenzhen, a month on month increase of 16.5% and a year-on-year increase of 127.4%. 26216 second-hand residential properties were sold in Chengdu, with a month on month increase of 32.4% and a year-on-year increase of 35.8%. Driven by high transaction volume, the prices of second-hand houses in Shenzhen and Chengdu have taken the lead in experiencing a rebound from decline. Data shows that the prices of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen have increased by 0.21% month on month, marking the first time since May 2023 that prices have increased month on month. The price of second-hand residential properties in Chengdu increased by 0.12% month on month, reversing the previous trend of 18 consecutive months of decline and ushering in an upward trend. Xu Yuejin stated that overall, the real estate market is still in a state of adjustment in 2024, with the support of two rounds of policies on May 17th and September 26th. The support for the "9.26" new policy is strong, and the sustainability of the effect is stronger than before. Since October, there has been a "stage recovery" in market volume and price, and sales in core cities have maintained a certain scale in November. As real estate companies strive for sales performance at the end of the year and increase their promotion efforts, it is expected that the real estate market will maintain a certain level of activity in December, but in the short term, "price for volume" will still be the mainstream of the market. (New Society)