According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 39.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, exports amounted to 23.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; Imports amounted to 16.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4%. In US dollar terms, in November, China's total import and export value was 527.18 billion US dollars, with exports reaching 312.31 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; Imports amounted to 214.87 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. The monthly export scale has reached a new high for the year, second only to 2021 compared to the same period last year. Overall, exports in November increased by 6.7% year-on-year, indicating a continued high level of growth. Multiple experts have analyzed that there are two factors supporting high export growth: the recovery of external demand and the support of "grabbing exports". Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that the global manufacturing PMI returned to above the boom bust line in November, recording 50.1%. Sub indicators show that output, new orders, and price PMI are all above 50%, with only employment below 50%. Looking at each country, the manufacturing industry in the United States, South Korea, and ASEAN has rebounded. Wen Bin pointed out that the "export rush" is mainly driven by two major events: Trump won the election and announced that he would impose a 10% tariff on imported goods from China after taking office. The policy pace exceeded the market's general expectation of the second half of next year, and export orders to the United States may be placed in advance as a result; The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation have issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy (hereinafter referred to as the new export tax rebate policy), announcing that from December 1st, the export tax rebate rate for 209 commodities such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, refined oil products, and some non-metallic mineral products will be reduced from 13% to 9%, which may lead to related enterprises declaring exports in advance. Looking at the next one to two months, the certainty of foreign trade 'grabbing exports' is relatively high, and the recent rebound in the US manufacturing PMI also supports' grabbing exports' Ping An Securities Chief Economist Zhong Zhengsheng said. From the perspective of export products, especially the goods involved in the new policy of export tax rebate, the export growth rate has accelerated. According to the customs statistics bulletin, the export growth rate of aluminum products with cancelled export tax rebates has increased from 31.2% to 40.1%, reaching the peak of the year. The decline in the growth rate of refined oil exports narrowed from 33.8% to 15.4%. In terms of volume alone, the growth rate of refined oil exports reversed from -23.4% to 3%, marking the first positive trend since July. In addition, the export of the semiconductor industry chain maintains a high growth rate. In November, the export growth rate of semiconductor industry chain commodities such as integrated circuits, liquid crystals, and computers remained above 10%, but decreased to varying degrees compared to the previous month. The export growth rate of audio and video equipment has slowed down, and mobile phones have continued to experience negative growth for two months. From the perspective of quantity price separation, only the price of integrated circuits has fallen, and the growth rate of export volume has also declined. Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Oriental Jincheng, analyzed that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November fell compared to the previous month, mainly due to the increase in the base of the same period last year and the disappearance of short-term factors that drove the export growth rate to be high last month, resulting in a natural downward trend in export growth rate. Although the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports fell in November, the absolute level is still relatively high Zhong Zhengsheng believes that the reason for the decline in export growth rate is that China's exports in October were boosted by the delayed export after the typhoon weather in September, and this impact dissipated in November. Looking ahead, Feng Lin believes that considering the increase in export base in the same period last year and the recent slowdown in external demand, it is expected that the export growth rate in December will be around 6.0%. However, the "export rush" effect on the United States may push up the year-end export growth rate. Overall, China's exports will maintain a high level of growth in the fourth quarter. It is expected that exports will continue to maintain a medium to high growth rate in December, with an annual export growth rate of around 5.5%. Wen Bin analyzed that external demand is expected to continue to recover, and the US economy has strong resilience. It is expected to cut interest rates by 25BP in December, providing a more relaxed monetary environment for the US domestic market and reducing the constraints on the monetary policies of peripheral countries. Seasonal factors are favorable for exports, and overseas Christmas stocking will drive a rebound in export volume in December. Historical data shows that the month on month growth rate of exports in December over the years reached 5.2%. (New Society)