On December 9th, the China Automobile Dealers Association Passenger Car Market Information Joint Branch (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Federation Branch") released data showing that retail sales in the passenger car market in November this year increased by 16.5% year-on-year and 7.1% month on month. Among them, retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles increased by 8% month on month; The retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 50.5% year-on-year. In November of this year, retail, wholesale, production, and export all reached a new historical high in a single month, "said Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The effects of the national" scrapping and renewal "and local" replacement and renewal "policies continue to be released, stabilizing the growth of the high-speed rail market. In April of this year, the Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued the "Implementation Rules for Automobile Trade in Subsidies" to boost the prices of "oil and electricity". Subsequently, in July, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), which proposed to increase the subsidy standards for automobile scrapping and renewal. Among them, the subsidy for scrapping old cars that meet the standards and purchasing new energy passenger vehicles has been increased from 10000 yuan to 20000 yuan, and the subsidy for purchasing 2.0-liter and below displacement fuel passenger vehicles has been increased to 15000 yuan. While implementing measures, local governments have also formulated corresponding subsidy rules for vehicle replacement updates. Taking Beijing as an example, the previous notice jointly issued by the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission and the Beijing Municipal Finance Bureau on the implementation plan for upgrading supporting equipment and exchanging old for new consumer goods in Beijing proposed to support the replacement and renewal of personal passenger cars. Individual consumers can transfer passenger cars registered under their name in Beijing for more than one year and purchase new energy passenger cars from sales enterprises in Beijing, with a subsidy standard of 15000 yuan per car. According to data released by the Ministry of Commerce, as of November 18th this year, the number of subsidy applications for scrapped and replaced cars in China has exceeded 2 million, totaling over 4 million. Cui Dongshu stated that although the implementation time of the "replacement and update" subsidy is short, the incremental effect is significantly higher than the increase in the number of "scrapped updates", which to some extent reflects the strong potential of residents' demand for replacement and purchase. The release of consumer demand for automobiles is intuitively reflected in sales data. According to statistics, the retail sales of passenger cars in November this year were 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Among them, the retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles reached 1.155 million units, a month on month increase of 8%; The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.268 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a month on month increase of 5.9%. The subsidy policy has driven the strong growth of entry-level pure electric vehicles and narrow plug-in hybrid markets, further consolidating the expansion foundation of new energy penetration rate. Cui Dongshu said that in November this year, the segmented markets at the high and low ends of the car market showed a good growth trend, with the national "scrapping and updating" driving the growth of the economic electric vehicle market, and local "replacement subsidies" driving good growth in the mid to high end segmented markets. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of narrow plug-in hybrid vehicles in November this year was 475000, a year-on-year increase of 112.5% and a month on month increase of 0.7%; The sales of extended range vehicles reached 130000, a year-on-year increase of 52.3% and a month on month increase of 7.8%. Meanwhile, looking at different models, the sales of B-class electric vehicles in November this year increased by 52% year-on-year and 9% month on month; The A00+A0 level economy electric vehicle market has rebounded month on month, with wholesale sales of A00 level reaching 175000 units, a year-on-year increase of 31% and a month on month increase of 9%. Not only does the sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the previously sluggish fuel vehicle market has also shown signs of recovery. This year, the retail sales of passenger cars have temporarily declined after the Spring Festival, and the retail sales of domestic fuel vehicles have continued to decline from June to July. Data shows that retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles reached 840000 units in July this year, a year-on-year decrease of 26% and a month on month decrease of 7%. In Cui Dongshu's view, the recovery of gasoline car retail is one of the foundations supporting the overall upward trend of the car market, and the demand for trade in released by the "trade in" policy has to some extent driven the growth of gasoline car sales. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles have achieved month on month growth for four consecutive months. Among them, some joint venture brands that still rely on fuel vehicles to achieve sales growth. Data shows that in November of this year, mainstream joint venture brands sold 600000 vehicles, an increase of 6% compared to the previous month. According to relevant personnel from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there were a total of 37 manufacturers with wholesale volumes of over 10000 vehicles in November this year, of which 28 showed positive growth compared to the previous month. Joint ventures such as SAIC General Motors, Beijing Hyundai, FAW Toyota, Changan Ford, and SAIC Volkswagen showed strong month on month growth. The favorable policies from clearing inventory to replenishing inventory have driven the overall sales growth of the car market, and channel pressure has also been significantly improved. According to a survey conducted by the China Automobile Dealers Association (referred to as the "Dealers Association"), nearly 90% of dealers believe that the policy effects of "scrapping updates" and "replacement updates" are significant. Among them, 43.4% of dealers believe that the policy of scrapping and updating cars has led to a growth of about 5% in new car sales, while 32.8% of dealers believe that the replacement and updating policy has driven sales growth of 5% -10%. With the increase in sales, dealers' new car inventory continues to decline. Another set of data shows that in November this year, the inventory warning index of Chinese car dealers was 51.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6 percentage points. Under the significant reduction in inventory of automobile dealers, Fan Yu, Deputy Secretary General of the Industry Work Coordination Committee of the Circulation Association, stated that in order to achieve the annual sales target of automobile enterprises and obtain year-end rebates, dealers should strengthen their efforts to replenish inventory. November and December each year are the annual target assessment nodes for car manufacturers and dealers, so dealers need to replenish inventory to boost sales during this period. In addition, if the demand for car purchases is released in late January 2025 during the Spring Festival, dealers should also prepare for replenishing inventory in advance. At the same time, car companies that previously reduced the burden on dealers and lowered production have gradually increased production as car market sales continue to grow. Data shows that the passenger car production in November this year was 3.018 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month on month increase of 13.9%. Cui Dongshu revealed that the passenger car production in November this year was 360000 units higher than the historical high of the same period. In addition, driven by the demand for channel replenishment, the wholesale of passenger cars reached a new high in November this year. According to statistics, the wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers nationwide in November this year was 2.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and a month on month increase of 7.6%. Among them, the wholesale of independent car companies increased by 31% year-on-year and 5% month on month; Wholesale sales of mainstream joint venture car companies increased by 13% month on month; 280000 luxury cars were wholesale, an increase of 14% compared to the previous period. In November of this year, manufacturers produced 80000 vehicles higher than wholesale, while manufacturers' monthly domestic wholesale exceeded retail sales by 120000 vehicles, forming a good trend of manufacturers comprehensively increasing inventory during the peak season, and reserving strength for wholesale and retail growth at the end of the year and early next year Cui Dongshu said. Retail sales for the whole year are expected to increase by 6%. In November last year, the China Passenger Car Association predicted that the total retail sales of passenger cars this year would be 22.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Under the "double subsidy" policy, the car market is accelerating its volume increase. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has stated that the retail sales growth rate in the car market is expected to reach 6% this year, and the market trend is significantly better than expected at the beginning of the year. Driven by the national 'scrapping and updating' and local 'trade in' subsidy policies, the recent automobile purchase consumption has shown a strong growth trend Yang Hong, director of the Industry Coordination Working Committee of the Circulation Association, said that since December this year, manufacturers and dealers have entered a sprint state. At the same time, the subsidy policies in various regions are coming to an end this year, which will also stimulate the accelerated release of car purchase demand and bring strong sprint effects to the end of year automobile market. Fan Yu revealed that for the continued recovery of the automotive market, dealers believe that the market heat will continue to rise, and it is expected that the upward trend in December this year will be very prominent. However, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also pointed out that the market trend is significantly better than expected at the beginning of the year, so more consideration should be given to balancing the car market this year and next year. Cui Dongshu stated that domestic car market consumption is mainly before the Lunar New Year, which means that the timing of the Spring Festival has a significant impact on consumption, especially on car market consumption in January. At the same time, the Spring Festival in 2025 falls on January 28th, 13 days earlier than this year. Combined with equipment maintenance and holiday arrangements from enterprises, taxation, and vehicle management offices, some pre Spring Festival car purchases will be completed by the end of this year. Therefore, top car companies with good sales completion rates this year are expected to transfer their December sales to January next year, achieving a balanced sales effect at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. In addition, in December this year, the national "scrapping and updating" and the "old for new" work supported by central funds in various regions will both come to an end, which will bring about a booming market at the end of the year. However, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) believes that the current "trade in" policy aims to update and consume the peak number of fuel vehicles between 2015 and 2020. However, half a year is not enough to consume hundreds of millions of vehicles, and the additional price difference generated by the policy can easily trigger strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Cui Dongshu said, "We also hope that the country can clarify the continuation of subsidy policies in advance, stabilize consumer attitudes as soon as possible, and achieve stable and sustainable consumption." On November 21 this year, at the 2024 Automotive Finance Industry Summit, Song Yingjie, a second level researcher from the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, stated that the next step is to scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of this year's policies on the basis of continuing to implement the already introduced subsidy policies and a series of supporting policies, plan ahead for next year's policy of replacing old cars with new ones, stabilize market expectations, and continue to improve automobile related policies to promote the ease and convenience of second-hand car transactions. (New Society)