The policy effect continues to be released, and the real estate market continues to stabilize

2024-12-04

The real estate market continues to show a trend of stabilizing and stopping the decline. Under the combination of the implementation of existing policies and the continuous introduction of incremental policies, the positive changes in the real estate market that occurred in October were continued in November. According to data released by the CRIC Research Center on December 2nd, the transaction area of new houses in key cities reached a new high for the year in November, while the transaction area of second-hand houses increased both month on month and year-on-year. Looking ahead, experts interviewed generally believe that the real estate market will maintain a certain level of activity in December, and under the continuous efforts of policies, the market will continue to stabilize and stop falling. Since the end of September, multiple relevant departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development have launched a combination of real estate policies of "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" to promote the sustained stabilization of the real estate market. In November, relevant policies supporting the revitalization of idle land, tax incentives supporting the development of the real estate market, and incremental policies supporting the renovation of urban villages were successively implemented to optimize the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, stabilize market expectations, and fully consolidate the trend of market stabilization and improvement. According to monitoring data from CRIC, in November, the transaction area of new houses in 30 key cities increased by 3% month on month and 20% year-on-year; The transaction area of second-hand houses in 18 key cities increased by 16% month on month and 33% year-on-year. It is worth noting that the number of second-hand housing transactions in the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all achieved month on month growth in November, reaching a new high on the basis of October. According to data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the number of online signed contracts for existing (second-hand) housing in Beijing in November was 18763, an increase of 8.03% compared to 17367 in October; According to online real estate data, 27050 second-hand houses were sold in Shanghai in November, a month on month increase of 10.97%; According to data from the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association, there were 11418 online signings for second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou in November, an increase of 10.01% compared to the previous month; According to data from the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen reached 7125 in November, a month on month increase of 16.46%. Zhang Bo, the director of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told Securities Daily reporters that recent policy optimizations have had a significant impact on high-energy cities. Four first tier cities successively cancelled the standards for ordinary and non ordinary residential properties in November, fully boosting market confidence. The relevant transaction tax and fee preferential policies also have a greater impact on first tier cities with a high proportion of replacement demand. While transaction volume remains active, housing prices continue to stabilize. According to data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the average price of second-hand residential properties in Baicheng was 14278 yuan/square meter in November, a decrease of 0.57% month on month and a narrowing of 0.03 percentage points compared to October; The average price of newly-built residential buildings in Baicheng is 16592 yuan/square meter. Driven by the entry of high-quality improvement projects into the market, the price of new houses has structurally increased by 0.36% month on month and 2.40% year-on-year. The stabilization trend of the real estate market continued in November, mainly due to policy optimization and market expectations warming Yan Yuejin, Vice President of Shanghai E-house Real Estate Research Institute, stated in an interview with Securities Daily that the policy "combination of punches" is playing a positive role. The basic cancellation of purchase restrictions, the reduction of down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates to historical lows, and the further reduction of transaction tax costs have created a relaxed policy environment for active transactions, and market expectations for housing prices have also warmed up. While a series of policies introduced by the central government continue to release positive effects, various regions are also making efforts to optimize policies related to the real estate sector. According to statistics from the Zhongzhi Research Institute, from January to November this year, over 300 cities across the country issued more than 700 policies, involving various aspects such as relaxing purchase restrictions and optimizing loan restrictions. At present, demand side policies have become relatively relaxed. The key to promoting sustained market stability in the future is to accelerate the implementation of policies that have already been introduced, such as accelerating the monetization of 1 million urban village renovations, accelerating the acquisition of idle land and the storage of existing housing Xu Yuejin, Deputy Director of Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, stated that as real estate companies strive for sales performance at the end of the year and increase their efforts to promote properties, it is expected that the real estate market will maintain a certain level of activity in December. Zhang Bo believes that the market's stabilization trend depends on the stabilization of demand and expectations, and this trend is currently quite evident. There is still room for policy development in first tier cities, and the increase in market heat in first tier cities is expected to drive more cities. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue    Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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