Policy synergy drives manufacturing PMI to rise for three consecutive months
2024-12-02
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 30th, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry was 50.3% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of growth and two consecutive months of expansion. The non manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month. The comprehensive PMI output index is 50.8%, unchanged from last month, indicating that the overall level of China's economic prosperity remains stable and expanding. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in November, with a series of stock policies and incremental policies continuing to work together, the manufacturing PMI rose in the prosperous range and the expansion pace accelerated. The activity of the manufacturing market has increased. "In November, the manufacturing PMI continued to rebound, and signs of economic recovery became more apparent, indicating that the boosting effect of incremental policies on business confidence is becoming stronger," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council. From the sub index perspective, both the supply and demand sides have rebounded. In November, the production index and new order index were 52.4% and 50.8%, respectively, up 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index has risen to the expansion range for the first time since May, indicating an increase in market activity in the manufacturing industry, "said Zhao Qinghe. The PMI of some key industries has remained stable with an upward trend. Data shows that in November, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 51.2% and 50.8%, respectively, up 1.1 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a rebound in business sentiment; The equipment manufacturing PMI was 51.3%, unchanged from last month, and related industries maintained steady expansion. The prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved. In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point and continuing to maintain an expansion trend; The PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises was 50.0% and 49.1% respectively, an increase of 0.6 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the overall economic situation. Zhang Liqun believes that the effectiveness of incremental policies should be further strengthened, especially in enhancing the effective driving force of government public product investment on enterprise orders, and accelerating the consolidation and enhancement of economic recovery momentum. Non manufacturing business activities remain stable. In terms of non manufacturing, data shows that in November, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, at the critical point. Among them, the service industry business activity index is 50.1%, and the construction industry business activity index is 49.7%. Currently, non manufacturing business activities remain stable, "said Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. From the perspective of major industries in the service industry, in November, the business activity index of telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance and other industries were all in a high boom zone of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume grew rapidly. From the perspective of service industry market expectations, in November, the expected index of service industry business activities was 57.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a high point in nearly five months. Among them, the expected index of business activities in industries such as air transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all above 65.0%, indicating strong confidence in market development among related industry enterprises. In November, the expected index of business activities in the construction and service industries both rose for two consecutive months and remained above 55%. Based on changes in comprehensive data, as the effects of a package of monetary and fiscal policies are gradually released, the optimism level of enterprise expectations has increased, and confidence in future economic development continues to strengthen Cai Jin said. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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