On October 14th, the General Administration of Customs released foreign trade data, which showed that in the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value was 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, setting a new historical high for the same period. Among them, exports amounted to 18.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%; Imports amounted to 13.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%. Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director General of the General Administration of Customs, introduced the import and export situation in the first three quarters of 2024 at a press conference of the State Council Information Office, stating that China's foreign trade operation remained generally stable in the first three quarters, with both exports and imports achieving growth. The current internal and external environment is more complex, but the favorable conditions of China's economic fundamentals, broad market, strong resilience, and great potential have not changed. The stock policy and incremental policy continue to exert force, and the positive factors for foreign trade development have accumulated and increased. The stable growth of imports and exports in the fourth quarter has a foundation and support. According to the General Administration of Customs, the export growth rate in September declined but remained relatively resilient. In RMB terms, the total export value in September was 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; The total import value was 1.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The trade surplus was 582.62 billion yuan. Analysts generally believe that the decline in export growth in September is mainly influenced by short-term factors and weak external demand. In September, China's export growth rate slowed down slightly. Preliminary analysis shows that it was mainly affected by some short-term sporadic factors Lu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office. Lv Daliang specifically pointed out that firstly, it is related to the extreme weather in September. Two typhoons landed successively in the Yangtze River Delta region, and historical data also shows that the impact of typhoons on exports lasts for a long time. After the typhoon, the scheduling of fleets is often delayed, and exports lag behind. Secondly, recently due to global shipping disruptions, container shortages, and expectations of contract expiration negotiations for workers at US East Coast ports, the shipping and logistics pace of enterprises has been adjusted. Data also shows that the peak export season for some products in previous years was in the third quarter, which has been advanced by more than a month this year. In addition, the export scale base in September last year was relatively high, the second highest of the year, second only to December. The high base also constrained the year-on-year growth rate. Overall, the slowdown in export growth in September is a normal short-term data fluctuation. Feng Lin, Executive Director of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, believes that the slowdown in external demand is also one of the reasons for the decline in export growth rate in September. In September, the global PMI index fell to 48.8%, below the boom bust line for three consecutive months, with the PMI of economies such as the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and Mexico continuing to decline. In September, the export growth rate of South Korea was 7.5%, and the year-on-year export growth rate of Vietnam was 8.4%. The export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam also declined, both indicating a weakening of external demand and weakened support for exports. Looking at each country, China's exports to Russia, the European Union, and Africa have further strengthened in September, but its exports to ASEAN, Latin America, India, Hong Kong, and South Korea have fallen significantly. Considering that China has railway transportation connections with Russia, the European Union, and Africa, and is less affected by maritime conditions, this may be the main reason for China's good export growth to these regions in September, "said Zhong Zhengsheng, Chief Economist of Ping An Securities. It is worth mentioning that although the export growth rate in September has slowed down, analysts generally believe that China's exports still have strong resilience. The two major characteristics of stable scale and declining growth rate in exports reflect the differentiation between short-term and long-term export trends Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated in an interview with China Net Finance reporters. In terms of scale, the export volume in September remained at a high level of over 300 billion US dollars, ranking third in the same period in history. The latest data from the IMF shows that in June of this year, China's exports accounted for 15.5% of global exports, higher than the cumulative proportion of 14.3% from January to June. In Wen Bin's view, the steady improvement of product competitiveness and the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade structure are the fundamental reasons why China's exports can maintain long-term resilience. Lv Daliang also mentioned at the press conference that according to the latest data released by various economies, China's overall export market share has been steadily increasing. Among the main export products, from furniture and household appliances to ships and containers, their market share in the global market has increased to varying degrees. China's exports still have strong resilience. From a product perspective, the driving force behind China's exports of steel, ships, and automobiles has increased in September. In September, the export value of ships increased by 113.8%, higher than the previous value of 60.6%, driving export growth by 0.8 percentage points. The export of automobiles and automobile chassis increased by 25.7%, lower than the previous value of 32.7%, driving export growth by 0.7 percentage points. The international competitiveness of China's new energy vehicles has steadily increased, and companies such as BYD and Great Wall Motors have released impressive overseas sales data for September, "said Wen Bin." However, due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the European Union and other countries on new energy vehicles, the marginal growth rate of export volume has declined. "In the first three quarters, the total export volume reached a new historical high. In terms of scale, the total export volume reached a new historical high. According to the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export scale in the first three quarters reached RMB 18.62 trillion, setting a new historical high for the same period and increasing by 6.2% year-on-year. This growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of the same period in the past 10 years. In the view of Tu Xinquan, Dean of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, the reasons for the growth of foreign trade are twofold: supply and demand. From the perspective of export supply, the competitiveness and value of the manufacturing industry are constantly improving. The content of independent brands and technologies is constantly increasing, and China's industries are also constantly upgrading their technology and structure. Therefore, the unit value of exported goods is increasing, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous increase in export value. In the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth rate of most industrial semi-finished product exports remained positive; Among them, the growth rate of midstream machinery exports has performed well. In the first three quarters, the export of general equipment, ships, automobiles, and automotive parts continued to grow rapidly year-on-year, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 81.6%, 20.7%, and 4.9%, respectively. The automotive industry chain continued to grow well on the basis of last year's high base, and the export advantage of automotive products continued. In terms of high-tech products, the year-on-year growth rates of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment exports in the first three quarters reached 19.8% and 8.5% respectively, both higher than the current year-on-year growth rate of China's exports. The export advantage of China's electromechanical products continues. From the perspective of export demand, China's major trading partners have also maintained positive growth in the first three quarters. From the perspective of growth rate, the markets of developing countries, mainly including the "the Belt and Road" co built countries, such as RCEP and ASEAN, are growing faster, so the increase is mainly contributed by these trading partners. It is worth mentioning that in the first three quarters, the import and export of China and the countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" was 15.21 trillion yuan, up 6.3% year on year, which is higher than the overall growth rate. Among them, exports amounted to 8.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1%; Imports amounted to 6.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3%. "With the solid progress of high-quality co construction of the" the Belt and Road ", China and the co construction countries share opportunities and common development. A series of landmark projects and" small and beautiful "livelihood projects help the development of relevant countries and bring convenience to the lives of local people." Lv Daliang stated. Policy synergy drives exports in the fourth quarter with confidence. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, institutions generally believe that although the slowdown in external demand continues, with the implementation of a package of incremental policies in China, exports are expected to maintain stable quantity and quality. Wen Bin's specific analysis suggests that, from the perspective of favorable factors, China's key export commodities such as automobiles and ships still maintain a high growth rate; Secondly, the base is still relatively low. In October last year, exports decreased by 6.6%, and although the growth rate turned positive in November and December, it was still at a relatively low level; Thirdly, China has recently introduced a package of incremental policies such as monetary, fiscal, and real estate policies to support the healthy development of the real economy and business entities. The coordinated efforts of these policies will help achieve the goal of stable and high-quality growth in foreign trade volume throughout the year. Recently, the highly anticipated package of incremental fiscal policies has been unveiled. Focusing on stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks, fiscal policy has increased its efforts to counter cyclical adjustments. At the end of September, the Central Politburo meeting proposed to "increase the anti cyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies"; On the eve of National Day, the central bank implemented measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, fully reflecting the increased intensity of monetary policy regulation; On October 12th, the Ministry of Finance announced four countercyclical adjustment policies, including the combined use of local government special bonds, special funds, tax policies and other tools to promote the stabilization of the real estate market. When it comes to the next trend of foreign trade, Wang Lingjun said, "The fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed, and favorable conditions such as large market potential and strong economic resilience have not changed. Recently, various departments and regions are stepping up the comprehensive implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Political Bureau meeting, actively introducing a package of incremental policies to support the healthy development of the real economy and business entities. With the coordinated efforts of policies, China's economy will continue to stabilize, improve, and thrive. We have the conditions and confidence to achieve the goal of stable quality and quantity of foreign trade for the whole year