Great changes in China's lithium battery industry: from lagging behind Japan and South Korea to running towards the world
2024-10-06
In 1999, 31 year old Zeng Yuqun ventured into state-owned enterprises and co founded ATL (New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.) with Liang Shaokang, Chen Tanghua, and others, specializing in consumer electronics batteries. One year later, Dr. Qi Lu, who had studied and worked abroad for many years, returned to China and became a professor at Peking University. With the support of CITIC Group, he founded Mengguli. In the same era, lithium-ion secondary batteries, as a new type of high-energy density green energy battery, are rapidly surpassing other secondary batteries such as nickel hydrogen batteries and nickel cadmium batteries, and have become a hot topic of major global technological innovation. Sony and Panasonic in Japan took the lead in commercializing lithium batteries in the consumer electronics industry, riding on the wave of electronic consumer products such as mobile phones and MP3 players sweeping the globe, forming a pattern of competition between Japan and South Korea in the global lithium battery industry. At the same time, China's lithium battery industry is thriving, with production processes, product performance, and industrial chain integrity far behind those of Japan and South Korea. Key materials such as separators, electrolytes, and cathodes have long been monopolized by foreign investment. In 2001, the founder of Mengguli, Qi Lu, and his team achieved the localization of cathode materials for small lithium-ion batteries, breaking for the first time the long-standing dependence of China's battery material products on imports. Because of this, Qilu is known as the founder of Chinese lithium manganese oxide and lithium cobalt oxide cathode materials. In 2003, Qilu first developed a 100Ah power lithium-ion secondary battery in the laboratory. In 2004, the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission decided to install the 400Ah/400V battery pack developed by Mengguli on buses for long-term testing, in preparation for the operation of the 2008 Beijing Olympic buses. In addition to Mengguli, ATL, which Zeng Yuqun participated in creating, also received some orders for Olympic buses. The 2008 Beijing Olympics was an important turning point for China's new energy vehicles, as 50 electric buses at the Olympics validated the feasibility of using lithium batteries for automobiles. In 2011, Zeng Yuqun plunged into the research and manufacturing of power batteries and founded Ningde Times for the second time. Along with Zeng Yuqun and Qi Lu, more and more professional talents are investing in the entrepreneurship of the lithium battery industry. The magnificent picture of China's power battery industry has been unfolded since then. The budding of China's lithium battery industry was concentrated in 1994~1999, when China's lithium battery industry was like a wasteland, but the global migration wave of the lithium battery industry chain from Europe and the United States to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Chinese Mainland has been clear. The four major consumer lithium battery giants BYD, BYK, ATL, and Lishen were all born in that period. China's lithium battery industry showed a vibrant side, and a touch of green grew on the wasteland. In July 2001, Beijing's successful bid for the Olympics became a driving force for the development and growth of China's lithium and power battery industries. Against the backdrop of global emissions reduction and environmental protection, the Beijing Olympics plans to invest in electric buses as operational vehicles, as zero emission electric buses align with the positioning of a "technology Olympics" and a "green Olympics". In September 2001, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology established a major special project for electric vehicles for the first time in the "863" program. In 2003, the Beijing New Materials Development Center (a directly affiliated institution of the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, later merged with the Beijing New Energy Technology Development Center), where Moko was located, received a task to investigate the status of China's lithium battery industry chain and search for battery and material suppliers for the 50 electric bus project of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Along with the task, there is also a requirement to use domestic suppliers as much as possible. If not available, foreign suppliers can be considered. Moko revealed that although the main suppliers of the 50 Olympic electric buses were domestic battery manufacturers, most of the raw materials used were imported, indicating that the foundation of China's lithium and power battery industry was still very weak at that time. However, the successful operation of 50 electric buses with zero malfunctions during the Beijing Olympics has shown confidence in the development of electric vehicles to higher decision-making levels. In 2009, the State Council issued the "Plan for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automotive Industry", arranging funds to support the development of the new energy industry. In the same year, China launched the "Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles Energy saving and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration and Promotion Application Project", providing financial subsidies for the production and promotion of new energy vehicles, and planning to launch 1000 new energy vehicles each year in 10 cities for demonstration operation within 3 years. Due to the overwhelming number of registered cities, more than 20 cities actually participated in the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" project afterwards. Moko believes that the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" is the first key node in China's electric vehicle and power battery industry in a true sense. Although the main commodities are electric buses and sanitation vehicles, it has brought tangible demand for goods, and at the same time, it has shown the determination of the government to the industry. More enterprises and people have entered the field of automotive power batteries, and the situation of China's power battery industry rising together has begun to emerge. As time continued to advance until 2011, with the rise of smartphones and tablets, global demand for lithium batteries continued to grow rapidly. However, lithium battery companies were reshuffled due to the rise of Apple and the loss of market position by Nokia and Motorola. Affected by the low price sales competition route between China and South Korea, the global market share of Japanese lithium batteries decreased from 65.3% in 2002 to 34% in 2011. After the first decade of brutal growth, Chinese and South Korean battery companies have become important poles with low costs and high-quality customer support, forming a tripartite structure of China, Japan, and South Korea. The core driving force behind China's rise as a global leader in the lithium battery industry comes from the explosion of electric vehicles in China 10 years later. Looking back to 12 years ago, the globally renowned power battery giant is now just an unknown small enterprise. CATL has just been independent from the power battery department of New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (ATL) for a year and has just received an order from BMW, which can be considered its first major order in the true sense. Although BYD's first hybrid car F3 DM has been officially launched for 4 years, it has not caused any waves in the market, and is even in the recovery period of dealers' withdrawal from the market. Meanwhile, Guoxuan High Tech has just completed its shareholding reform... However, soon after, China's new energy vehicle industry experienced explosive development with policy support, and the power battery, which is the most critical component of new energy vehicles, emerged with the wind. Qingjiao, Secretary General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, told reporters that the development of power batteries in China in the past decade is mainly due to the strong support of national policies for the new energy vehicle industry. After 10 years of development, China's power battery materials and equipment have also undergone a transformation from relying on imports from Japan and South Korea to independently providing them. A set of data provided by Yu Qingjiao to reporters shows that the localization level of the four major materials and equipment for power batteries in China has exceeded 90%. In the view of Puritanism, China's power batteries have experienced policy instability and difficulties in implementation in the early stages; The market is small, scattered, and chaotic; Severe fluctuations in raw material prices; The technological roadmap is wavering; The core technology and equipment are subject to difficulties such as being controlled by others, but they have gradually emerged from the haze through policy support and independent innovation. "Currently, China's power battery industry has begun to lead the world." Data shows that in 2017, global sales of new energy passenger vehicles were less than 1.2 million units, and by 2022, this value has exceeded 10 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of more than 7 times. In 2017, the global shipment of lithium-ion batteries was only 143.5 GWh, of which 58.1 GWh was for automotive power batteries. By 2022, the overall global shipment of lithium-ion batteries has reached 957.7 GWh, a cumulative increase of 5.7 times over the past five years. Among them, the shipment of automotive power batteries has grown particularly rapidly, with a cumulative increase of nearly 11 times over the past five years to 684.2 GWh. In recent years, the global power battery industry has witnessed a "three-way battle" between China, Japan, and South Korea. From the perspective of changes in vehicle loading data, the market share of Chinese power battery companies has been steadily increasing since 2020, while the market share of Japanese and South Korean battery companies has gradually declined, and the gap between the three is still widening. In the first half of this year, Japanese companies continued to decline; Although the absolute value of South Korean companies is still growing year-on-year, their growth rate lags behind that of Chinese companies, which has led to a continuous decline in their global market share. Conversely, Chinese companies' share of power batteries in the global market continues to expand. According to global power battery installation data released by South Korean market research firm SNE Research, the global market's power battery installation volume increased by 22.3% year-on-year in the first half of this year, reaching 364.6 GWh. Among the top ten companies in terms of global power battery installation volume, there are six Chinese companies, three Korean companies, and one Japanese company. The shortlisted Chinese companies include CATL, BYD, Zhongchuang Chuanghang, EVE Energy, Guoxuan High Tech, and Xinwangda, ranking first, second, fifth, eighth, ninth, and tenth respectively. Among them, the installed capacity of power batteries by CATL increased by 29.5% year-on-year to 137.7 GWh, with a market share of 37.8%, firmly ranking first. Previously, CATL had held the top spot in the installed capacity of power batteries for seven consecutive years; BYD's installed capacity of power batteries increased by 22% year-on-year, reaching 57.5GWh, and its market share remained the same as the same period last year, at 15.8%. While rapidly expanding in scale, Chinese power battery manufacturers have achieved a diverse range of independent innovation results, such as CATL Kirin batteries, BYD blade batteries, Zhongchuang Aviation Soft Square Shell batteries, and Honeycomb Energy short blade batteries. With the arrival of the mass production stage of the next generation of power battery technology, the energy density of power batteries is expected to continue to accelerate. Wang Yikai, Global Partner and Head of Automotive and Industrial Products Business in Greater China at Kearney, once told First Financial reporters that South Korean power battery companies have taken the internationalization path earlier than China and have stronger management capabilities. However, Chinese power batteries have more advantages in the industry chain, market, and cost. Overall, the main players in the future global market competition will still be China and South Korea. (New Press) (The author is Tang Liuyang from First Financial)