Will smartphones experience a decline
2024-07-31
Smartphones seem to have become an indispensable 'personal accessory'. However, the Spanish newspaper El Pais recently reported that perhaps smartphones are just a trend and the market is showing signs of decline. At the same time, people are seeing some emerging products slowly rising. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the time to say goodbye to smart phones is not far away, and the penetration rate of smart phones will drop to zero in 2050. Will people really say goodbye to smartphones in the future? What products will replace it? The phenomenon of "screen addiction" in the past, where the "king" began to show signs of decline, has increasingly attracted social attention, and smartphones have almost become a target of public criticism. A study published in the International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction shows that nearly one-third of mobile phone users are at serious risk of addiction. In this context, "digital disconnection" has become a new trend for maintaining mental health. Another fact is that the sales volume of the mobile phone market is quietly declining. It's not that suddenly no one uses phones anymore, people are still buying phones, but sales are indeed decreasing, "said Amy Weber, CEO of the Future Today Institute in the United States. This consulting firm, which focuses on predicting technology trends, predicted as early as 2017 that the era of smartphones would end because the market has become saturated and new demand is no longer as strong as before. In 2022, global smartphone shipments decreased by 11.3%, reaching the lowest level in a decade. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the decline was even more pronounced, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. This decline has not been reversed in 2023, with a decrease of 3.2% or 4% according to different analysts. Looking ahead to the next decade, people may witness a new era where diverse devices coexist. Humans may no longer rely solely on small rectangular screens, but will have more diverse and intelligent ways of interaction. The era of humans staring at screens with their eyes fixed on them and sliding their hands rapidly may be far away. Diversified devices may become the "new favorite" in the future, and people may see more innovative small tools as supplements or substitutes for mobile phones. For example, the AI Pin is a screenless wearable device. It is small and lightweight, and can be worn on clothing. Users can easily check the weather, search for nearby restaurants, or ask other questions through voice commands. AI Pin utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) technology to provide answers in voice form. What's even more amazing is that it can project a green fluorescent screen on the user's palm, displaying short text messages, bringing users a brand new interactive experience. Rabbit R1 adopts a similar concept. It is a creative device that falls between retro and exquisite, capable of receiving voice queries and equipped with a small screen. The functionality of Rabbit R1 is identical to that of advanced voice assistants, for example, users can request it to book flights and hotels. Apple's latest Vision Pro glasses allow users to observe their surroundings through images captured by its high-resolution camera and simultaneously play videos and other content. Lucy's glasses are the first devices to integrate generative artificial intelligence ChatGPT, which can understand voice requests. Similar devices include glasses jointly launched by Metaverse Platform and Ray Ban. Chinese mobile phone manufacturers TCL and OPPO have also launched their own smart glasses. Ultimately, a smartphone is a toolbox filled with various applications. In the future, an AI tool for voice interaction may be able to integrate all the functions of mobile phones. It is premature to assert that the theory of mobile phone decline has a powerful "enemy", which is the visual culture that people highly rely on. For example, the core content of popular social media platforms is videos and images. These contents constantly attract people to stare at the screen, which is an important reason why people cannot yet assert that mobile phones will inevitably disappear. Even wearable devices require larger screens to display the content they collect. We cannot do without our phones, largely because they provide us with a larger window to easily access various information Weber said, "However, some devices, such as headphones or smart glasses, can allow us to accomplish many things without relying on our phones. So I believe that over time, our dependence on phones will gradually decrease." Sonia Villanueva, a professor at La Rioja International University in Spain, also believes that the number of phones may decrease, but it will never completely disappear, depending on people's specific needs. Of course, with the advancement of technology, people may find a new way to integrate visual elements into their daily lives without relying on mobile phones. Alexander Manu, a professor in the Department of Design at Ontario College of Art and Design in Toronto, Canada, proposed an interesting idea: "What would it be like if any surface could become a screen? There are already technologies that can achieve this, such as graphene electronic displays." As depicted in the movie "Minority Report," Tom Cruise browses data on a glass wall, which may become a reality in the future. (New Society)
Edit:Xiong Dafei Responsible editor:Li Xiang
Source:People.cn
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