Stable expectations are the key to macroeconomic governance

2024-07-01

This has pointed out the direction for us to do a good job in economic work. Our country's economic operation is undergoing a series of extremely profound changes. Unlike before, although it also manifests as economic fluctuations, the underlying reasons behind it are more about changes in expectations and confidence. Stabilizing expectations is becoming a key aspect of macroeconomic governance, and the focus of macroeconomic governance is shifting towards expectation management. Expectancy management and traditional demand management or supply management, although both are contents of macroeconomic governance, belong to different levels. Expanding from demand side or supply side management to expected management level means that the complexity of macroeconomic governance increases, and the difficulty of related work also further increases. Macroeconomic governance is like using medication by doctors, and targeted treatment is crucial. Only by persistently applying targeted medicine can one achieve the effect of curing the disease. If the wrong prescription is prescribed and the medicine is not targeted, not only will the disease not be cured, but it is also highly likely to have side effects. Based on the same principle, the selection of strategies and measures to stabilize expectations should also be tailored to the specific situation. Not only should we analyze what kind of countermeasures and measures are indeed related to expectations and confidence issues, which can help stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence, but we also need to calculate the cost-benefit account of the implementation of relevant countermeasures and measures, and confirm that the benefits obtained are at least greater than the costs paid. Stable expectations and strong confidence cannot be achieved without the support and support of macroeconomic policies, and further comprehensive deepening of reforms is also needed to advance. The fundamental way to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence is to provide institutional mechanisms for economic development and consolidate the foundation of institutional mechanisms through comprehensive deepening of reforms. Only by further comprehensively deepening reform and focusing on solving deep-seated institutional barriers and structural contradictions can we stimulate the entrepreneurial and innovative vitality of the whole society and inject a strong driving force into high-quality development and accelerating the construction of Chinese path to modernization. Strengthen the guidance of expectations, do a good job in expectation management, and fully consider and pay attention to the macroeconomic development situation and environmental changes. We need to grasp the high probability of frequent changes in expectations and confidence in the context of unprecedented changes in the world, and also recognize that people's demand for a better life is increasing, and their attention and sensitivity to economic operation are constantly increasing. Expected changes are increasingly becoming an important factor affecting economic performance. Faced with complex domestic and international environments, how to respond to changes in expectations and confidence through various countermeasures and measures, timely respond to public concerns, guide and stabilize social expectations, all of which greatly affect the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance. In short, good social expectations are the cornerstone of stable and healthy economic operation. We need to base ourselves on the current situation, focus on the overall situation, plan for the long term, accurately grasp the similarities and differences between expected management, demand management, and supply management, and implement precise policies to stabilize expectations. We also need to make good use of the key move of reform to promote stable expectations and confidence, thereby providing important support for high-quality economic development. (Lai Xin She)

Edit:Xiong Dafei    Responsible editor:Li Xiang

Source:China.org.cn

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