Manufacturing PMI stopped falling and rebounded in January

2024-02-01

The China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that in January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and Comprehensive PMI Output Index were 49.2%, 50.7%, and 50.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.2, 0.3, and 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. "The level of China's economic prosperity has rebounded," said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics. In January, the manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.2%. The changes in sub indices show that both domestic and international market demand in the manufacturing industry is stabilizing and rebounding, and enterprise production activities are accelerating growth. The four major industries and large, medium, and small enterprises are synergistically stabilizing. Overall, the economy will achieve a stable start in 2024. From the perspective of both supply and demand, the production index was 51.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching its highest point in nearly four months. The new order index was 49.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the new export order index reflecting external demand increased by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating an improvement in the market's internal and external demand sentiment. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises has rebounded to the expansion range, increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4% compared to the previous month. More than 70% of large enterprises have achieved or exceeded 80.0% capacity utilization; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises and small enterprises were 48.9% and 47.2% respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points and a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. From the perspective of enterprise expectations, influenced by the approaching Spring Festival holiday and some industries entering the traditional production off-season, the expected index of production and business activities is 54.0%, continuing to be in the expansion range. According to Wen Tao, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, due to the stable recovery of market demand and the increasing willingness of enterprises to increase finished product inventory for future sales and exports, manufacturing production activities have accelerated growth, and the production index has been operating in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. "The PMI index slightly rebounded in January, ending three consecutive months of decline, indicating an increase in economic stabilization factors. The production index and procurement volume index both rebounded, indicating signs of recovery in enterprise production," said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council. In January, the non manufacturing industry continued its stable expansion trend. The non manufacturing business activity index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. "The non manufacturing business activity index has risen for two consecutive months, and the new order index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating that the non manufacturing industry continues to maintain a stable recovery trend." Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, analyzed. Driven by the dual effects of pre holiday stocking and holiday consumption by enterprises, the service industry has seen an increase in activity, playing a stabilizing role and laying the foundation for a stable start to the non manufacturing industry. Firstly, both wholesale and retail business activity indices have shown a significant increase compared to the previous month; Secondly, transportation, accommodation, and catering related activities are on the rise, with railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, and catering business activity indices all showing varying degrees of increase compared to the previous month; Thirdly, the expectation of consumption during the Spring Festival has driven online consumption related activities to become more active, with the postal industry's business activity index rising to over 60%

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:economic daily

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