Seeing the "shape" and "momentum" of the Chinese economy in the face of challenges and resilience

2024-01-19

In 2023, the Chinese economy withstood internal and external pressures, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with an economic growth of over 6 trillion yuan, equivalent to the annual economic output of a medium-sized country. This is a year of economic recovery and development after a stable transition in epidemic prevention and control. The international environment is complex and severe, and the task of domestic reform, development, and stability is arduous and heavy. The rhetoric of "bearish" and "negative" China's economy and the promotion of "risk reduction" towards China are constantly emerging. These empty rhetoric often exaggerates the surface of China's economic recovery after the epidemic, neglecting the strong resilience, potential, and vitality of the Chinese economy, elevating local and short-term problems to global and long-term challenges, blindly applying China's actual situation based on international experience, emphasizing "form" over "momentum", emphasizing "quantity" over "quality", leading to many misjudgments of China's economy as "only seeing trees, not forests". Misjudgment 1: China's post pandemic economic recovery has slowed down. In 2023, the Chinese economy achieved a good start in the first quarter, but due to factors such as the scar effect of the epidemic, the growth rate of some economic indicators in the second quarter has declined. Some foreign institutions predict that China's economic recovery is weak and it may be difficult to achieve the annual GDP growth target of around 5%. Shortly after the release of data on the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to make a judgment that economic recovery is a process of wave like development and tortuous progress. The Chinese economy has enormous development resilience and potential, and the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. Faced with economic downturn pressure, multiple departments in China have taken swift action and launched a policy "combination punch". In the third quarter of 2023, there were positive changes in multiple sectors and indicators of the Chinese economy, and many international institutions and investment banks such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Citigroup intensively raised their expectations for China's economic growth. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th clearly shows the trajectory of China's economic recovery: GDP for the four quarters of 2023 increased by 4.5%, 6.3%, 4.9%, and 5.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing a trend of low, medium high, and stable at the beginning, further consolidating the positive trend. In addition, the average national urban survey unemployment rate for the whole year was 5.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points, and the per capita disposable income of residents in China increased by 6.3% in nominal terms year-on-year. "In 2023, China's economic growth rate of 5.2% is not only higher than the expected global growth rate of about 3%, but also ranks among the top among major economies in the world. China's contribution rate to world economic growth in 2023 is expected to exceed 30%, making it the largest engine of world economic growth," said Kang Yi, Director of the National Bureau of Statistics. Misjudgment 2: Foreign investment no longer favors the Chinese market. In early 2023, some Western politicians promoted "de risk" towards China, advocating for "decoupling and chain breaking" and "China+1" plan, which intensified the geopolitical risks of economic globalization and disrupted the market-oriented layout of some multinational enterprises. In 2023, the actual amount of foreign investment used in China has declined year-on-year, and bearers have taken the opportunity to hype up arguments such as "large-scale withdrawal of foreign investment from China" and "the Chinese market cannot be invested", ignoring China's record high base in the previous year and the reality of sluggish global cross-border investment.

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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