Be wary of the "Dak Effect" in military affairs. In simple terms, the "Dak Effect" is a cognitive bias that refers to individuals with insufficient abilities who draw incorrect conclusions without considering themselves, but are unable to correctly recognize their own shortcomings, resulting in them often being unable to objectively evaluate their own and others' ability levels. The "Dake effect" is widely present in reality. There is a set of statistical data that states that the vast majority of people, whether university professors or general industrial workers, believe that their abilities and performance exceed the average level in the same industry. Moreover, if everyone in the company were to talk about their contribution to the success of the company, the total would exceed 300%. This self overestimation of the "Dak effect" is also evident in the military field. On the eve of the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon was once full of confidence. At a breakfast meeting, he excitedly told his subordinates, "Our chances of winning are at least 90%, and the probability of failure is less than 10%." In Napoleon's eyes, Wellington's mixed army was vulnerable to a single blow and could be knocked to the ground with just one punch. In the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon not only lost the battle, but also the entire empire. Before liberation, when the Kuomintang launched a civil war, it conducted strategic evaluations. After comparing the size, equipment level, and economic foundation of the two armies, Chen Cheng's judgment is that the Kuomintang army has an absolute advantage and can solve the civil war problem in 3-6 months, while He Yingqin's assessment is that it will take 2-3 years. Chiang Kai shek chose Chen Cheng's judgment. Three years later, the Nationalist army was driven to Taiwan. The historical fact is that wars often break out suddenly when you are caught off guard; Failure often happens suddenly when you feel good about yourself. The "Dake effect" reminds people not to overestimate their own abilities, never underestimate the intelligence of their opponents, and never create the illusion that everything is under control. Sun Tzu said, "Those who are not fully aware of the harm of military use cannot fully understand the benefits of military use." Overoptimism is a common human disease, and cognitive bias is a weakness of human nature. The combination of the two often leads people to first see favorable and feasible aspects, thus being attracted by seemingly brilliant prospects while ignoring passive and infeasible factors. Comrade Mao Zedong once said, "We must anticipate the most difficult, dangerous, and dark possible situations, and from this point on, overcome difficulties and strive for a bright and victorious situation." Compared to the past, in the future, facing strong opponents will become increasingly cruel, complex, and unpredictable, especially requiring us to take and prepare for war more seriously, especially to prevent ourselves from falling into the "Dak effect" and becoming difficult to know. Remember the ancient adage of 'proud soldiers must be defeated, and forget the danger of war'. Always remember that 'there are mountains outside the mountains, and there are people outside the people', and be less complacent and not slack off. You should know that competing with your own people on the playground is not the same thing as competing with the enemy on the battlefield. You should be clear about your opponent's strengths and weaknesses, and neither be afraid of the enemy in battle, nor be arrogant and underestimate the enemy. We should draw on the wisdom of 'those who know others are wise, those who know themselves are wise'. As the saying goes, a noble person has self-awareness. The reason why self-awareness is expensive is because it is difficult. Lack of depth, incompleteness, and familiarity with oneself