What is the impact of the RMB/USD exchange rate breaking 7.3 for the first time this year?

2023-08-17

On the 16th, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate fell below 7.33 in the intraday trading, falling more than 800 basis points for five consecutive days, reaching a new low since November last year. The onshore RMB exchange rate also hovered around the 7.3 level. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the cost of studying abroad and shopping overseas has increased. Converting 10000 US dollars now costs about 4000 RMB more than six months ago. However, a decrease in exchange rates also brings benefits to exports. How to view the current round of exchange rate fluctuations? In fact, the RMB/USD exchange rate has been fluctuating and declining for some time this year, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates depreciating from around 6.8 at the beginning of the year to around 7.3 today. The current round of changes in the RMB exchange rate is the result of the combined effect of internal and external factors. Shen Wanhongyuan's macro analysis indicates that although the RMB has recently depreciated against the US dollar, this is mainly due to the rapid upward trend of the US dollar index, rather than the unilateral weakening of the RMB. According to Wind data, in August, the US dollar index climbed one after another and returned to 103. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, mentioned that the rebound of the US dollar poses a certain disturbance to the RMB exchange rate, and the RMB appreciates against a basket of currencies. In addition, under the influence of factors such as the reduction of MLF (Medium Term Loan Facility) interest rate and reverse repurchase rate on the 15th, as well as recent economic data, the RMB exchange rate fell to a new low within the year. CITIC Securities pointed out that a decrease in interest rates may lead to a deepening of the inverted interest rate difference between China and the United States, which in turn may trigger some foreign investment outflows and increase the pressure on RMB depreciation. However, if policies such as interest rate cuts can promote economic stability, the exchange rate will naturally stabilize and rebound. What is the impact of current exchange rate fluctuations? The autumn semester in the United States is approaching, and due to the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, Jia Ying (pseudonym), who is studying in California, found that the tuition fees for this semester are about 15000 yuan more than the previous semester. Not only that, living expenses and rent also need to spend more RMB. The price advantages of overseas Taobao and Meidai are also affected. "Under the fluctuation of exchange rates, many consumers have found that the cost of shopping on American websites has also increased. However, the depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is good news for China's exports of goods. Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at Bank of China, told China New Finance that a decline in the exchange rate will bring a certain boost to exports, improve the price competitiveness of export products, stabilize export market share, and to some extent improve the international balance of payments situation. However, Wang Youxin stated that this cannot be overestimated. The current pressure faced by the export sector is a global phenomenon, fundamentally caused by the current slowdown in global economic growth and weak external demand. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the downward pressure on major developed economies such as Europe and the United States may further increase, and the overall situation of external demand is still not ideal. In addition to exerting the regulatory function of exchange rates on international balance of payments, it may also be necessary to cooperate with other measures to stabilize foreign trade and stimulate exports to jointly respond. What are the remaining reserves in the "toolbox" for stabilizing exchange rates? Maintaining exchange rate stability is one of the current important issues. The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held in July called for maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The central bank also emphasizes the need to "prevent major fluctuations in exchange rates". At present, regulatory authorities have approved the issuance of offshore securities

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:chinanews.com

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