The question is not 'should we save the real estate market?'
2023-07-07
Recently, there has been widespread discussion about whether to rescue the real estate market. Research shows that in the first half of the year, more than a hundred places in China have optimized their real estate regulation policies more than 300 times. Since June, cities such as Qingdao and Suzhou have also actively carried out self rescue efforts. Qingdao has launched a combination of measures to stabilize the real estate market, including relaxation of sales restrictions, adjustment of down payment ratios in non restricted purchase areas, monetization of housing reform resettlement, and housing ticket policies. The balance of Suzhou provident fund accounts can be withdrawn for down payment. I believe that the current issue is not whether to rescue the real estate market or enterprises, but how to restore our expectations and confidence in the economy. In this regard, we first need to make a clear judgment on the following two questions: does our real estate market still have a future? Is it currently at its peak or at some stage of spiral development? At present, the real estate market has only experienced some discomfort and imbalance in its development cycle. Obviously, there are some companies in the real estate market that are not suitable for the new development model, including some ST listed companies (ST stocks refer to stocks of domestic listed companies that have suffered losses for two consecutive years and have been specially treated). For these enterprises, I believe they do not need to be rescued. The survival of the fittest is a necessary duty of the market. For private enterprises that meet the requirements of future development, we should provide opportunities and solutions; Some self disciplined state-owned real estate enterprises should continue to play a crucial role. The real estate market still has a future, but opportunities are always left for good companies that can adapt to the development model of the new era. Local governments, the real estate industry, consumers, financial institutions, and upstream and downstream industry chains should have firm confidence in this. Real estate is a pillar industry that needs to return to its position as a fundamental underlying industry, correct the problem of disorderly expansion in some regions, and rectify the root cause. Some data related to the real estate market now do need our attention, including local debt, employment, etc. We need some more decisive and inspiring policy adjustments. Minor adjustments such as lifting the "double restrictions" in core cities and lowering the "down payment" and "mortgage interest rates" may not have a significant impact. There is a famous "Rational expectations theory" in economics: all economic behaviors of people depend on Rational expectations for the future. So the adjustment of confidence and expectations requires very clear and forward-looking policies, including the release of some reform dividends. At this point, we need to fully clarify which reform dividends can be released to promote long-term economic development and stabilize future income and employment expectations. Only in this way can everyone dare to consume or actively consume, reducing safe and safe haven savings. Policies that are not conducive to the release of rigid and improving demand in the real estate market should also be optimized, such as market access, buyer access, loan access, product access, price access, etc. At the same time, it can promote investment in various types of affordable housing, forming a dual track system of market and security, with the two markets not interfering with each other. If the total proportion of "affordable housing" in a region is large, its restrictive measures on the commercial housing market are relatively few, and the impact of fluctuations in the commercial housing market on the economy is also small. Let's talk about whether developers should help themselves and whether they can. At present, a group of companies that have taken out risks and expanded their capital in a disorderly manner have disappeared, and we need to quickly address past issues
Edit:XiaoWanNing Responsible editor:YingLing
Source:Global Times
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